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Thread: Current State Of The Property Market - Bottom or Dead Cat Bounce?

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    Politics.ie Member libertarian-right's Avatar
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    Default Current State Of The Property Market - Bottom or Dead Cat Bounce?

    Folks, we should begin discussions on the current state of the property market. Why? Because we are a strange obsessed breed that loves the aul bricks and mortar.

    Property prices rise for third month in row amid hopes the worst is over - Property & Mortgages, Personal Finance - Independent.ie

    A THIRD month in a row of property price rises across the country has prompted hopes that the worst may be over for the bombed-out market.
    After five years of price plunges, there was also a strong rise of 2.4pc in house and apartment prices in Dublin.
    Our media are constantly feeding us with drivel about a "soft landing", "at the bottom", "near the bottom", sitting on our bottoms, etc etc.

    Are we at/near the bottom? Is this the classic dead cat bounce? Is NAMA restricting supply? Is the government desperate to make an artificial floor with terrible thoughts that property = economic boom? Will there be more measures introduced by government to try lure/trap people into buying? Or will we soon be entering into the Japanese style crash?

    Discuss.

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    Politics.ie Member RobertW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Biffo View Post
    She's bottomed out pal, buy now, you won't be sorry.
    Seriously stupid advice.

    House prices will only begin to rise again when people are back in work, emigration has slowed and there is generally more money in the economy.

    That ain't gonna happen for some time.

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    Politics.ie Member Mountaintop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by libertarian-right View Post
    Folks, we should begin discussions on the current state of the .
    I know someone who agrees...at least they did an hour ago

    http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy...er-2012-a.html

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    Politics.ie Member gijoe's Avatar
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    Dead cat bounce. The tax reliefs are coming to an end at the end of the year. People who can buy now are doing so to lock-in the 7 year mortgage interest tax reliefs. Therefore come January 1st it will go wallop again.

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    Politics.ie Member Mr. Bumble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Biffo View Post
    She's bottomed out pal, buy now, you won't be sorry.

    I would suggest waiting to see what the next three budgets bring - household tax, water charges, income tax increases, pay cuts etc. - before rushing to buy.
    Cry your hardest now, it opens the lungs, washes the countenance, exercises the eyes and softens down the temper. So cry away.

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    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
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    I reckon is is a bounce, but that within six months it will be lower.

    There is a technology boom in place at the moment. And it is bringing a lot of investment into Dublin. This helping to prop up the rental market.

    And that 20 billion that is being borrowed every year is also propping up the real estate market, and rental market.

    If that stopped, prices would be more realistic.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

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    Quote Originally Posted by John Biffo View Post
    She's bottomed out pal, buy now, you won't be sorry.
    If I had a penny for every time I heard that.










    I'd have about 78p now.

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    theyre not even the full figures as the CSO dont take account of cash purchases.

    look im NOT anti property. there will be a time when its a good investment for those into that sort of thing. hell the alsop auctions show guys garnering 7% plus returns on the stuff theyre punters are buying.

    but theres simply TOO MUCH still up in the air in connection to the whole sector for anyone to call "the bottom" yet

    christ we dont even know the ramifications of the property tax yet.

    the smart money is still waiting to see what the story is and TBH all this margin of error "growth" sounds like bolloxology to me.

    particulary as we cant ALL buy gaffs in blackrock.


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    Let's see what the lie of the land is:
    450,000 unemployed
    40,000 emigrants
    Interest rates can only rise
    Nama stockpile of properties to be released
    Ghost estates lie in every county
    3 more bad budgets (at least)
    End of tax reliefs
    Property Tax
    Small increases follow 60% drop from the most inflated property bubble of all time, anywhere
    A threat to the low corporation tax lingers
    Further cuts in numbers in public service.

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    This is the flushing out of cash buyers.
    There are 300'000 empty properties.
    A lot more properties than cash buyers.
    NAMA haven't even released the bulk of their portfolio onto the market.
    Couple that with a change in the bankruptcy laws, in about 2 years time we will see a real flood of houses on the market.
    Thats the time to buy.

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