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Thread: Romney wins IOWA poll. Huckabee 2nd as Ron Paul flops

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    Default Romney wins IOWA poll. Huckabee 2nd as Ron Paul flops

    GOP presidential nomination candidate Mitt Romney has as expected won the Iowa straw poll by a clear margin. Romney won 32% (4516 votes) to Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's 18% (2587) and Senator Sam Brownback's 15% (2192). Huckabee's and Brownback's performances make them viable candidates for the presidential nomination

    The poor showing of Tommy Thompson, who declared before the vote that he would drop out in the event of not finishing number 1 or number 2, is likely to end his race. He finished 6th with 7%.

    Neither Senator John McCain, Rudy Giuliani nor Law and Order actor-and- politician Fred Thompson ran in the race, though their names were on the ballot paper. The poor showing of Duncan Hunter, in a race where the main challengers had opted out, may well end his presidential bid.

    Another flop was controversial libertarian republican congressman Ron Paul who, though he had received the backing of a massive internet campaign which had flooded internet sites with with supportive messages (including this one), and was supported by large numbers of out-of-state young people who had travelled to the event to canvass for him, achieved only 9%, far less than the predictions of supporters.

    The performance of the 11 nominated candidates were:
    1. Mitt Romney 32 percent
    2. Mike Huckabee 18 percent
    3. Sam Brownback 15 percent
    4. Tom Tancredo 14 percent
    5. Ron Paul 9 percent
    6. Tommy Thompson 7 percent
    7. Fred Thompson 1 percent
    8. Rudolph W. Giuliani 1 percent
    9. Duncan Hunter 1 percent
    10. John McCain (less than 1 percent)
    11. John Cox (less than 1 percent)

    With McCain's campaign in chaos and freefall, the race is thought likely to be between Giuliani and Romney. Both have strong positives and negatives for conservatives, a key part of the Republican core. Guiliani wins plaudits for her performance as New York major during 9/11, but criticism over his liberal views on gay rights and abortion, his religion - only one Catholic, John F Kennedy, ever became president, while Al Smith and John Kerry both lost) and his personal life - he has been divorced twice, the second time during his period as mayor when the divorce's bitterness earned international coverage. Romney's clean-cut family image contrasts to Giuliani's, but his flip-flopping on a range of issues including abortion, and his past declaration in a Senate race that he was more liberal than Ted Kennedy, may hurt him, as might his religion - many conservatives regard his Jesus Christ of the latter Day Saints as not being a Christian church. Whether they would elect someone they perceive as not being a Christian is a point being speculated about.

    The strong showing of Huckabee and Brownback may make them viable contenders and potential serious challengers for the GOP nomination. Governor Huckabee's performance was seen as stronger than expected, and should guarantee him a place in the race at least until the later stages, if not all the way to the convention and beyond.

    The momentum of the race may be affected by the suggestion by President Bush's new Iraq War czar, Army Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, that the draft may have to be introduced, upping the similiarities between Iraq and the Vietnam War. The US has not operated a draft since 1973 and its re-appearance as an issue may prove highly controversial and unpopular with voters.

    The Republican count was marred however by serious problems with the voting software. Ron Paul supporters had sought an injunction to prevent it being used, only to lose in two courts. Academics have already suggested that the system, which was widely used in the 2004 presidential election, is capable of producing fraudulant results if tampered with. The failure of electronic voting to perform when only counting less than 20,000 votes raises questions as to its continued use in nationwide federal and state elections.


    politics.ie report

    New York Times result

    New York Times candidate reaction

    Forbes Magazine description of the event.

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    This result is a disaster for Romney. He spent a fortune running against a weak field and could get 4516 votes. He bought 10000 tickets. His whole campaign hinged on Iowa and NH. He is cooked. The big winners are Huckabee and Tancredo. Brownback is a loser because there is not room for both him and Huckabee. Paul will be somewhat happy at 9% instead of 2 in a state that really suits Brownback and Huckabee. Rudy just wishs places like Iowa didn't exist as liberal ideas do not wash here. There are still 100 fools who voted for the lousy pilot. Fred would have hoped that he would have gotten more than a couple hundred in the complete state. It is surprising that Hunter did so badly because his war message is the same as Rudy and on immigration he is tough. I forgot about Tommy Thompson and now everyone can.

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    Quote Originally Posted by youngdan
    This result is a disaster for Romney. He spent a fortune running against a weak field and could get 4516 votes. He bought 10000 tickets. His whole campaign hinged on Iowa and NH. He is cooked. The big winners are Huckabee and Tancredo. Brownback is a loser because there is not room for both him and Huckabee. Paul will be somewhat happy at 9% instead of 2 in a state that really suits Brownback and Huckabee. Rudy just wishs places like Iowa didn't exist as liberal ideas do not wash here. There are still 100 fools who voted for the lousy pilot. Fred would have hoped that he would have gotten more than a couple hundred in the complete state. It is surprising that Hunter did so badly because his war message is the same as Rudy and on immigration he is tough. I forgot about Tommy Thompson and now everyone can.
    It isn't a disaster for him. Neither is it a triumph. To get around half of the tickets you bought is the standard return in politics. People factor in the fact that up to half of their "supporters" won't support them. He had to break 30% of the total poll to get taken seriously as a viable candidate. He had to break 40% to ensure the rest of the pack in the race were dead in the water.

    The result will be enough to make him viable for the real caucuses and primaries, at least as a base point. It is a start, just not a kick start. Huckabee is however someone who has got the kickstart from the straw poll. In reality, only the top three, perhaps four, did well enough to be seen as credible candidates in the real race. The rest were also-rans. Thompson and Hunter are dead in the water. Paul like Howard Dean before him has learnt that internet campaigns don't transfer into real votes on the ground.

    McCain, Guiliani and Fred Thompson were wise to avoid the straw poll. Unless one of them won at least 50% of the result it would be seen as poor, given their celibacy status compared to the other 'minnows'. So it was really a no-win race for them, though the way McCain is going he probably won't make it until even the first primary.

    It looks at this very early stage as though the real runners and riders in the real race will be

    * Giuliani
    * Romney
    * Huckabee
    * Brownback
    * Tancredo
    * Fred Thompson

    That then raises the question of whether Gingrich will enter.

    However the campaign could be thrown into all sorts of problems with the issue of the draft now raised by Bush's Iraq czar. There is no issue more likely to do fatal damage to the republican candidate than the slightest suspicion of a draft.

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    Insider. Everyone agrees that Huckabee was the big winner. He spent very little money. Romney has spent about 15 million in Iowa for ads running continously for 6 months. Watching him as the results were read he looked a defeated man. Look at the percentage for the two religous candidates, the big 3 abstainers would have been bruised badly. They have a total of 7 wives between them. This is Iowa not Beverly Hills. Paul has gone from being unknown to 9% in 4 months. Brownback is really screwed because he did well enough to stay but his whole effort was Iowa and he got beat by Huckabee who he needed to knock out today. Gingrich will be very tempted now. He knows that he can beat the top 4 has beens because they being fully known will not pick up new fans. He will fear Huckabee and Paul because they being rather unknown to most will have room to grow. Tancredo will stick around but he has little charisma and only one issue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by youngdan
    Insider. Everyone agrees that Huckabee was the big winner. He spent very little money. Romney has spent about 15 million in Iowa for ads running continously for 6 months. Watching him as the results were read he looked a defeated man. Look at the percentage for the two religous candidates, the big 3 abstainers would have been bruised badly. They have a total of 7 wives between them. This is Iowa not Beverly Hills. Paul has gone from being unknown to 9% in 4 months. Brownback is really screwed because he did well enough to stay but his whole effort was Iowa and he got beat by Huckabee who he needed to knock out today. Gingrich will be very tempted now. He knows that he can beat the top 4 has beens because they being fully known will not pick up new fans. He will fear Huckabee and Paul because they being rather unknown to most will have room to grow. Tancredo will stick around but he has little charisma and only one issue.
    Jesus Dan will you cut the Paul crap. The guy is dead in the water. He had vast numbers of young people from all over the US travel to Iowa for a one-to-one lobby of a couple of thousand people in a set location and STILL could only get 9% after 4 months of hard slog. If he can only get 9% in that sort of situation where it is one-on-one, where a mass lobby can help, and where the big guys are absent then he is dead in the water. And you know that.

    It doesn't matter how much Romney spent. What matters is that he won by a sufficiently big margin to get himself entry into the real race. So did Huckabee. Tancredo maybe. Brownback probably. The rest are dead. This Ron Paul rubbish is getting as tedious as it is rubbish.

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    Insider. You must be slipping as the hour is late. You say that he had vast numbers come from all over the US. A couple of thousand no less, impressive. Paul spent very little time in Iowa and opened an office there only last week. I hope people understand the ramifications of the 300 billion bailout last Thursday and Friday. I have read that it is a 10% increase in the money supply in Europe where most of it took place. Weimar economics is going to dominate this election cycle with China now threatening the so called nuclear option. The European banks have made a big mistake selling their gold to the Russians and Chinese. If the American electorate can grasp what is happening then this election will be interesting. Having said that do you agree that Newt has nothing to fear from Romney, Judy, Fred Flintstone or the Lousy Pilot?

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    Ron Paul is up and Running for President.

    He has gone from nowhere to 9% in Iowa with little money spent.

    To quote Insider "Ron Paul had VAST numbers of young people from all over the U.S travel to Iowa" to lobby.

    To qoute Insider "Paul has learned that internet votes dont transfer into votes on the ground"

    Thats called having your cake and eating it. He either has vast support from young people or not. You said he has VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE.

    Those young people did travel to Iowa and in a matter of days they had managed to convince 9% to vote for Ron Paul.

    To educate you Insider i must inform you that THE VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE WHO CAME FROM ALL OVER THE U.S. as you put it COULD NOT VOTE IF THEY WERE NOT FROM IOWA!!!!!

    9% is a great launch pad.

    Insider knows it, and is worried.

    I love it!

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    The Paulites remind me of Joe Liberman's speech after he bombed in New Hampshire in 2004 declaring that he had Joementum.
    Economic Left/Right -7.38
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian -4.08

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    9 percent is pretty good
    if only american democracy was more then a two horse race
    If I ask a question don't just 'like' the post, reply to it. - If I post a lot about a subject I may write a post about it at http://dublinstreams.blogspot.ie/

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    Quote Originally Posted by eyes_west
    Ron Paul is up and Running for President.

    He has gone from nowhere to 9% in Iowa with little money spent.

    To quote Insider "Ron Paul had VAST numbers of young people from all over the U.S travel to Iowa" to lobby.

    To qoute Insider "Paul has learned that internet votes dont transfer into votes on the ground"

    Thats called having your cake and eating it. He either has vast support from young people or not. You said he has VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE.

    Those young people did travel to Iowa and in a matter of days they had managed to convince 9% to vote for Ron Paul.

    To educate you Insider i must inform you that THE VAST NUMBERS OF YOUNG PEOPLE WHO CAME FROM ALL OVER THE U.S. as you put it COULD NOT VOTE IF THEY WERE NOT FROM IOWA!!!!!

    9% is a great launch pad.

    Insider knows it, and is worried.

    I love it!
    Good Lord. Are you illiterate, or just stupid? It should be a matter of concern for Paul that, despite the large (possibly even vast) numbers of youth volunteers mobilised for his campaign from all over the USA, and the farce that is the Ames Straw Poll, 9% was the best he could do, which is exactly what Insider said before you went all angelcountry on him.

    These trolls are sounding more and more LaRouche by the day.
    "If there is a future, it will be Green." - Petra Kelly.

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