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Thread: Prediction: 15% Housing Price Jump in the next 12 Months

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member LeDroit's Avatar
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    Default Prediction: 15% Housing Price Jump in the next 12 Months

    Everyone loves someone else to make a prediction. It's great fun to watch them fall flat on their face. Schadenfreude is delicious. So this is my gift to you all. In addition, if you are that bloke I heard about who actually still has money, this is an even bigger gift.

    A functioning Property Market needs three things, Sellers, Buyers and Finance.

    1. SELLERS; We have Sellers, lots and lots of them.
    2. BUYERS; Hands up who wants to rent forever? No? We just don't do that, do we? We're not Central European. (Yet!). Very few people have bought a house in the past two to three years. I think it's safe to say we have been holding back. We have been building a backlog of Buyers. There has never been as many Renters than there is now, rents have stayed strong in response. But people want their own house. We move out of home, we get married, we have kids. People want houses and they want to own them. We have three years worth of normal demand for house purchases built up, waiting to buy. But they want two things, confidence that we're near the bottom and finance.
    Are we at the bottom? I don't know but the recent Allsops Sales indicate that there are three reasons to think so. Other Housing Bubbles that burst typically produce a 50% price drop. We have now realise that we've had a 57% drop. Houses are now selling for less than it'd cost to build them in a lot of places. Rental yields on new property purchases are now hugely lucrative and out of kilter with a normal supply/demand property Market. Bottom line, as an investor it's too cheap not to buy a rental property now.
    3. FINANCE; Even if you wanted to buy, banks have no money to lend, right? €1Trillion has been pumped into banks by the ECB in the last six months at 1%. A lot was hoovered up fixing black holes in their balance sheets but a lot more is looking for a home. Our banks were completely recapitalized by the taxpayer. They have money. Confidence that Ireland will not leave the Euro or fail further is now building abroad. The Trackers will soon be taken off Irish Banks books too. Employment levels are stable, so if you have a job you're probably going to keep it. Banks have been terrified to lend in case the borrower lost their job and/or prices dropped leaving them with more negative equity bad debts to take on but we're now at or near the bottom price wise as explained above. So the finance is in place and the confidence is just about there for banks to actually lend it.

    Have a look a this.

    http://www.independent.ie/business/p...t-3053972.html

    So, I think Prices have over corrected as explained above so once Finance comes back the Three Year Backlog of Demand will descend on the Market. And once we see others getting a bargain what will happen? Boom. Prices will jump to correct the Rental Yield anomaly and perennially popular locations will jump first and most. So, my tip, buy a three bed semi in a nice suburb.

    You're welcome.
    "A govt big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have" Thomas Jefferson

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    Politics.ie Member Boy M5's Avatar
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    I wish we weremorelikethe Germans in terms of financial frugalness.

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    Politics.ie Member Boy M5's Avatar
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    Are you Jim Power?

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    Politics.ie Member LeDroit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boy M5
    Are you Jim Power?
    No. Marc Coleman. The best is yet to come.
    "A govt big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have" Thomas Jefferson

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    I think ill have to pass on this new bubble thanks but no thanks.

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    Politics.ie Member hammer's Avatar
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    The banks will lend...................................at prohibitive rates and seeking airtight security.

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    Politics.ie Member Boy M5's Avatar
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    For the property market to take off we need the over supply of property to disappear, a functioni g banking system, prices to fall to their real value, the ability of borrowers to absorb a rise in Europesn interest rates on a sustainable basis.

    Oh and economic growth. Not just GDP shooting up because Ringaskiddy is supplying more to auld fellas with dirty minds

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    Politics.ie Member LeDroit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dillinger
    I think ill have to pass on this new bubble thanks.
    But this is the point. It won't be a bubble. The Market has over corrected. It doesn't reflect the normal demand that is there.
    "A govt big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have" Thomas Jefferson

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    Politics.ie Member Fides's Avatar
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    Too soon I reckon but you may see stabilisation and even price rises in particular areas. Still a big overhang in a lot of areas.
    Rents are being kept high by rent supplement which I hope we'll see fall in the next few years.
    Not convinced we're out of the woods economically or the Euro has reached calmer waters (wish we were, hanging in there running a business).

    If I were a buyer I'd hang on for a bit longer and if that is widely held then prices will still drop.

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    Wages dropping, unemployment stagnant, potential new buyers emigrating, increased taxes, more austerity, difficult to get credit. What part of this points to a 15% increase?

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