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Thread: I'd listen to the bookies before I take heed of the Polls!

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    Default I'd listen to the bookies before I take heed of the Polls!


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    agreed

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    A sligo taxi driver was telling me that Sean Mc lost a lot of votes in Leitrim due to the carve up. Has he really got a chance ?

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    Bookies odds can be severely affected by one or two fairly large bets being laid on a particular result - this is particularly relevant in election betting where there isn't a recent form guide as there is with most sporting events.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pal
    A sligo taxi driver was telling me that Sean Mc lost a lot of votes in Leitrim due to the carve up. Has he really got a chance ?
    Yeah, some Sinn Fein stronghold have been carved out of the constit. This could scupper his chances I would have thought.

    I know there is a campaign to Leitrim to be reunified - not necessarily with Sligo but with anyone as long as they are one

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    I've seen a few posts elsewhere suggesting the unlikely theory that Dr. Jimmy Devins may be under threat from his running mate Eamon Scanlon thus providing a big suprise. Any views???

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    Re "current observer" post - Eamonn Scanlon has had a very good campaign - he wasnt far off the last time and has been a busy Senator since.
    Jimmy Devins has done a lot for Sligo, and assuming FF get back has an excellent chance of promotion to full or half ministry.
    He needs every vote today.

    Good candidates who are thought to be safe can sometimes lose - i.e. Tom Moffat in 2002 in Mayo was thought to be safe.

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    Default Bookies

    I am friends with a bookie for a very big high end book maker and I asked him this question- Obviously bookmaking is not all about how much money has been placed on the horse and those who think that are very niave. If a book maker thinks that he is going to loose money then he tightens the odds. Did you really think that a book maker lets the betting public determine his income.? Bookies would often get a call from head office before a race meet and told from superiors to pull in odds just becuase the superior has information that the horse might win.

    It just goes to show you what people will believe when they want to.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member Panopticon's Avatar
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    Odds largely depend on recent bets and recent public polls. Big movements tend to follow big bets. The market is very illiquid. How Ireland Voted 2007 has a good analysis that shows how little extra information was contained in odds beyond that in public polling.

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