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Thread: 31st Dail / IMF - nightmare scenario

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    Politics.ie Member Number2's Avatar
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    Default 31st Dail / IMF - nightmare scenario

    Something makes me think that the IMF are holding fire on Ireland until a new government is installed. But after that happens they will be back with a vengeance. The IMF has a record of bringing severe hardship to the countries that it rescues and we haven't seen anything yet.


    What is the nightmare scenario for the next Dail in relation to the IMF/EU bailout?

    - Could Ireland revert to a heavily devalued punt, leading to massive inflation?

    - Could Ireland be forced to increase corporation tax or suffer the consequences?

    - Could the IMF come in and audit the public service; slashing jobs and cutting pay, leading to strikes and riots?

    - Could the next 5 budgets be increasingly worse than the last one?

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    We have turned a corner
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    Could Ireland grow a set?

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    Politics.ie Member Mr. Bumble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Number2 View Post
    Something makes me think that the IMF are holding fire on Ireland until a new government is installed. But after that happens they will be back with a vengeance. The IMF has a record of bringing severe hardship to the countries that it rescues and we haven't seen anything yet.


    What is the nightmare scenario for the next Dail in relation to the IMF/EU bailout?

    - Could Ireland revert to a heavily devalued punt, leading to massive inflation?

    - Could Ireland be forced to increase corporation tax or suffer the consequences?

    - Could the IMF come in and audit the public service; slashing jobs and cutting pay, leading to strikes and riots?

    - Could the next 5 budgets be increasingly worse than the last one?
    Good questions No.2. IMO:

    Could Ireland revert to a heavily devalued punt, leading to massive inflation?

    Very unlikely. EU will want to maintain integrity of Euro.

    Could Ireland be forced to increase corporation tax or suffer the consequences?

    Quite possibly. We are broke and he who pays the piper calls the tune.

    Could the IMF come in and audit the public service; slashing jobs and cutting pay, leading to strikes and riots?

    Possibly. Though you can be sure they were behind the CPA. IMO expect further small PS paycuts but no riots unless they are draconian.

    Could the next 5 budgets be increasingly worse than the last one

    Unlikely. But they'll be tough.
    Cry your hardest now, it opens the lungs, washes the countenance, exercises the eyes and softens down the temper. So cry away.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Number2 View Post
    Something makes me think that the IMF are holding fire on Ireland until a new government is installed. But after that happens they will be back with a vengeance. The IMF has a record of bringing severe hardship to the countries that it rescues and we haven't seen anything yet.


    What is the nightmare scenario for the next Dail in relation to the IMF/EU bailout?

    - Could Ireland revert to a heavily devalued punt, leading to massive inflation?

    - Could Ireland be forced to increase corporation tax or suffer the consequences?

    - Could the IMF come in and audit the public service; slashing jobs and cutting pay, leading to strikes and riots?

    - Could the next 5 budgets be increasingly worse than the last one?
    You are 100%. This is like inviting a rapist into your house. These fkers will destroy the place. Wage cuts, privatisation, schools and hospitals closing. The fun has only begun.

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    The IMF did come in and shaft us already, it can not get much worse than a virtually ensured default sometime in the medium term future. In fairness we had it coming. The worst has happened really, its just playing out now. Look at what Dukes is now saying and follow the logic. Its game over, the current lot just made sure the fuze was long enough for them to make it out of office. The banks as always are everything in this crisis and they are screwed beyond what we are capapble of fixing, therefore so are we. The EU will have to sort us out now and it wont be pretty.

    Needless to say, those that brought in the bank sell out and NAMA should be horse whipped. But that will no resolve the significant damage that has been done. The ship sails on, but it is holed below the water line.

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    Politics.ie Member eoghanacht's Avatar
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    Listen folks there will be a move on our corpo tax.

    You can thank FF for that. FG/labour will just be the mediators. They'll make a big show out of the IMF renegotiation. They'll get a better rate at the cost of our corp tax.
    And come back from Brussel in triumph
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    The IMF haven't shafted us. They've provided credit - along with the EU -when the markets effectively wouldn't. The latest IMF monitoring report is just out (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1147.pdf) and is quite positive. The IMF's approach is always to agree a series of actions with the borrower which aim to ensure a return to fiscal sustainability. Continued drawdown of the loan is dependent on hitting the agreed targets.

    We can argue separately about the interest rate charged at the insistence of the ECB, or about the costs of the bank bailout, but please don't forget the 19 billion euro gap between day to day tax and expenditure; that's at the heart of our problems right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Expatriot View Post
    The IMF did come in and shaft us already, it can not get much worse than a virtually ensured default sometime in the medium term future. In fairness we had it coming. The worst has happened really, its just playing out now. Look at what Dukes is now saying and follow the logic. Its game over, the current lot just made sure the fuze was long enough for them to make it out of office. The banks as always are everything in this crisis and they are screwed beyond what we are capapble of fixing, therefore so are we. The EU will have to sort us out now and it wont be pretty.

    Needless to say, those that brought in the bank sell out and NAMA should be horse whipped. But that will no resolve the significant damage that has been done. The ship sails on, but it is holed below the water line.
    The ship analogy is a good one. The country was doomed 2+ years ago, we've all just been watching it sink. We've watched all those involved in hitting the rocks abandon the ship in relative comfort and safety. We've seen some jump into the sea to escape to foreign shores. The rest of us are waiting like lambs as the icy water rises another few feet a day, knowing that soon it will finally sink to the bottom.

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    Quote Originally Posted by n1nap View Post
    The IMF haven't shafted us. They've provided credit - along with the EU -when the markets effectively wouldn't. The latest IMF monitoring report is just out (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr1147.pdf) and is quite positive. The IMF's approach is always to agree a series of actions with the borrower which aim to ensure a return to fiscal sustainability. Continued drawdown of the loan is dependent on hitting the agreed targets.

    We can argue separately about the interest rate charged at the insistence of the ECB, or about the costs of the bank bailout, but please don't forget the 19 billion euro gap between day to day tax and expenditure; that's at the heart of our problems right now.
    Funny how the sovereign bondmarkets were more than willing to extend us money to cover an even larger deficit, until the Bank guarantee was extended last September and the figures for the Banks rose above 50 billion.

    I know I would, nt invest in a country that would put my existing investments at risk by guaranteeing an unknown level of Private Bank debt.

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