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Thread: Dublin North East

  1. #1
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    Default Dublin North East

    Apologies if there is a thread on this already but I couldnt find one and as most Dublin constituencies have been discussed in depth I thought this one should be too

    Lets start with Labour. Tommy Broughan has had the whip reinstated and although he may have messed up his chances of being frontbench/junior ministry because of losing the whip should be return fairly easily and may top the poll with the green vote gone which gave him 2000+ votes in 2007

    the question is who will run along with him. looking at the cllrs of artane/whitewall, donaghmeague and malahide/howth which i believe makes up this constituencies. Tommy base would probably be seen as artane/donaghmeague as he has been elected at local level there that may give Howth/Malahide's Cian O callaghan or PEter Coyle to possibly get the nudge although montague has had a raised profile recently so he could be an option O Callaghan is a new young cllr and would seem to fit the target of lab trying to get in some new young faces but i dont know what the local cllrs are like in this area

    FG look set to hold one with Flanagan safe enough

    FF are having a tough time in dublin and woods will hardly run as he'd be nudging 80 by the end of the 31st dail who will run then for FF here Eoghan o brien (brother of TD Darragh) could get the go ahead but unlikely to get elected as FF only have three cllrs in all the LEA that make up this constituency

    SF are sure to run Larry O Toole and will probably run Lab #2 close and could nudge it on a good day the thing favouring Lab#2 would be the transfer friendliness of Lab in over SF and should do well of Green/FF transfers where there will be some core vote for them

    the question is what stage the Lab convention is at on selecting a co runner any rumors/rumblings from Labs in the know?

    I'm going to say Tommy to top then Flanagan then lab#2 to get in on transfers ahead of O' Toole

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    I hope you are right but I still think there is a strong FF vote here. Remember at the last election Woods and his running mate almost pulled off two seats. The redrawing of the constituency will make a changes and I hope it will wipe them out.
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    yes i know there was a large FF vote but i think a large chunk of this could be a personal vote for Woods as hes been there donkey's years and which may transfer easily if he doesnt run

    i dont know the intentions of the other FF who ran in 2007 but thought that FF will prob go with a cllr that has been on the ground in the area if they were to have any chance

    it is hard to see the FF vote go from nearly electing 2 out of three to none but FF are desimated in Dublin and i think its quite possible

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    Looks like Lab 2 FG 1

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    Broughan and Flanagan will hold comfortably. The third will be a toss up between FF, SF and the second Lab. Assuming Woods steps down, his personal vote will be up for grabs. Brady's had a strong enough presence too, but I don't know how much he'll have lost since losing his seat.
    The wildcard is Killian Forde. He'll have a strong claim onto the labour ticket (a deal may have already been struck), which would certainly leach votes from SF, but he'll be fishing from the same pool as Broughan. O'Callaghan might be a better complement to Broughan, but will they be able to take votes from O'Toole? Or would they pick up enough from Woods' personal votes without having to worry about SF?

    FF could hang on here on a good day, but I'd say more likely 2 Lab, 1 FG. Could be an interesting bellwether for FF's prospects in Dublin though.
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    I doubt Forde is interested - he's been very quiet since he came over to Labour.
    Can Kenny get selected, win a seat and defend it when the term is up?
    O'Callaghan has been keeping busy working and is young. He'd be the better replacement for Broughan after he retires and would retain one seat for Labour.
    Brian McDowell, the failed local election candidate is apparently trying to get selected - but after failing to hold on to a well held seat (Broughan's old one) in a ward that has returned two Labour seats for donkeys years, he has to be the worst candidate possible to win a second Dail seat.

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    any more on labs selection process here? when is it due to be held?

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    Yeah, Labour two seats sounds pretty accurate to me. Say good bye to FF in Dublin.

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    according to the tribune sean kenny is Brougnan's running mate

    Any local knowledge?
    His chances?

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member collina's Avatar
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    Dublin NE has a lot of varied constituents but I wonder when the last time there was no FF elected to the Dail.
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