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Thread: Exchequer deficit at end-Oct 2010 €14.4 billion

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    Default Exchequer deficit at end-Oct 2010 €14.4 billion

    The Exchequer deficit, at end-October 2010 was €14.4 billion compared to €22.7billion at end-October 2009. The overall Exchequer position for the first ten months of the year means that the Budget Day targets remain valid.
    • Tax receipts in the first ten months of the year amount to €24.7 billion.
    • Corporation tax receipts are €238 million greater than anticipated.
    • The year-on-year rate of decline in tax revenues now stands at 5.4%


    [ame="http://www.scribd.com/doc/40741339/Information-Note-on-end-October-Exchequer-Returns"]Information Note on end-October Exchequer Returns[/ame]

    [ame="http://www.scribd.com/doc/40741444/Exchequer-Final-Statement-October"]Exchequer Final Statement October[/ame]

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    Tax receipts now 1% ahead of profile after strong corporation tax returns in Oct.

    http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...ctinfonote.pdf

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    David - what "target remains valid"

    Is it?
    3 Bn; 4Bn; 5Bn; 6Bn; 7Bn; 8Bn?

    Does it even matter anymore?

    What are the odds on Sean Whelan saying this is good news and it means that the adjustment for the next 4 years remains at a mere 15Bn (assuming growth of 2.75% per annum which is unlikely of course)

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    Its important to remember that the monthly exchequer returns are now increasinly distorted by the shift in government revenue in recent years.

    The oft quoted €33bn revenue and €53bn spending are net of "appropriations in aid", essentially PRSI and Health levy. In 2005 these made up €10bn of gross government spending and this year will be €17bn (due to the increase in the rates and raising the ceiling on PRSI contributions).

    So the true picture is €50bn in receipts and c€72bn in expendiure. GNP was €131bn last year so there must be plenty of scope to reduce spending from €72bn (55% of GNP). So essentially we are already a high tax and extremely high spending economy even before Gilmore's €7.5bn in tax rises (50% of the €15bn adjustement needed).

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    Another corner turned?

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    Quote Originally Posted by grafter1 View Post
    David - what "target remains valid"

    Is it?
    3 Bn; 4Bn; 5Bn; 6Bn; 7Bn; 8Bn?

    Does it even matter anymore?

    What are the odds on Sean Whelan saying this is good news and it means that the adjustment for the next 4 years remains at a mere 15Bn (assuming growth of 2.75% per annum which is unlikely of course)
    I think the target they are referring to is that set on budget 2010 (ie in the Dail on December 2009) when they set out what the expected revenues and expenditures for the year would be.

    In fairness - they (DoF) have had their budget numbers way closer to actual this year than any other year in the past decade and more.

    I reckon November will probably disappoint though so I don't think they'll actually hit the full year number.

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    Quote Originally Posted by adrem View Post

    In fairness - they (DoF) have had their budget numbers way closer to actual this year than any other year in the past decade and more.
    Hardy amazing considering we are getting pretty close to rock bottom.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Holy Cow View Post
    Hardy amazing considering we are getting pretty close to rock bottom.
    Ireland is miles from rock bottom.
    You havent even had any real cuts yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by adrem View Post
    In fairness - they (DoF) have had their budget numbers way closer to actual this year than any other year in the past decade and more.
    In the absence of a pattern, I'd guess it is the stopped clock telling the right time.

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    Current expenditure is higher in 2010 than current expenditure in 2009 and our tax receipts are still falling. Nothing new here.

    IMF are mere days away at this stage.
    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” - Friedrich A. Hayek

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