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Thread: Two or three cheers for IMF intervention?

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    Default Two or three cheers for IMF intervention?

    The gridlocked Irish political system is verging on failure in implementing government austerity. The Greens can't bring themselves to abandon silly Celtic Tiger era promises not to introduce third level fees,a decision that could reduce universities to junior colleges in all but name and lead to a brain drain to the fee paying colleges in the UK and the US. Health Minister Harney admits that the billions in cuts in the health services must come from the residual budget slice left over after pay and pensions guaranteed by Croke Park,an approach that will gut frontline services. Her redundancy plan for clerical staff is unattractive compared to generous pay and golden handshakes and will find few takers. While Social Welfare Minister O'Cuiv is saying nothing is off the table,the government lacks the political strength to make major savings in social welfare. How would it look if public sector pensioners on pensions of €30,000 a year up were protected by the Croke Park agreement while old age pensions a fraction of that were cut?

    The key to Ireland's economic future is a budget that will impress the bond market that the government is serious about austerity. That would drive down Ireland's punitive interest rates,allowing deficit financing to continue. But the government lacks the votes for a realistic budget,especially with Fianna Fail backbenchers like Mattie McGrath from South Tipperary distancing themselves from the government.

    Would a general election clear the air and give a government the mandate needed for austerity? Austerity is a hard sell when some politicians and political parties will try to gain political advantage by claiming simplistically that taxing the rich can solve most or all of our problems.Labour's Gilmore has been very successful with soundbites that attack the government without giving specifics on how Labour would deal with the deficit. Maybe the electorate would see through this but more likely it seems prepared to give Labour a chance as a radical alternative to traditional civil war politics. So chances are an election would result in a Fine Gael/Labour Coalition with Labour an equal partner,a coalition that would repeat the gridlocked politics of the Garret Fitzgerald era.

    In that event,the bond market would almost close down to Ireland,threatening economic chaos. The Irish may be giving two or three cheers for an IMF directed EU rescue in a matter of months. The public sector won't be cheering,though,as their pay and pensions would be slashed.

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    This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.

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    Politics.ie Member Social Conscience's Avatar
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    The bond markets have no trust in this goverment. Therefore as you pointed out a general election would clear the air & give the newly elected majority the mandate needed for austerity.

    Otherwise instead of the IMF just been at the gates - they will be invited in and the public sector will be cut to pieces.
    From great tragedy emerges great art.

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    I think we need the IMF, and it may actually be good for us.
    After listening to the founder of UL yesterday, he talked about our teachers being the best pad in europe, and probably in the world, and over 80% of the education budget taking up on wages, now if the croke park deal prevents cuts in public sector wages in the upcoming budget, I say three cheers to the IMF into this country.
    They will not hestitate to put the public sector in its place.

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    Politics.ie Member Bismarck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tempest View Post
    This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.
    Can you explain how an election and a new govt would be any different? Do you think Labour would introduce harsh measures? What happens if Sinn Fein win 15 seats and independents win 10 more?
    WHen would the budget be introduced? Assuming the election is called tomorrow - it would be held three weeks later and the budget is due to be introduced on Dec 6 - would there be a budget? Do you think the new administration would get up to speed in a few days?

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    Politics.ie Member bormotello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tempest View Post
    This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.
    not only government, whole political establishment lost credibility
    it is time to pay for years of competition in populism

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    Politics.ie Member PUFF DADDY's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tempest View Post
    This Government have lost credibility with the people, the media, the EU (thought they wouldn't admit it), the markets and it's own party it would seem given recent resignations. It's too late for them. An election and a new administration with a fresh mandate is the only way we can be seen to turn the ship around.

    I would have totally agree with you up to very recent.

    However, looking at those int rates well over 7% now, I think that this country's prospects of turning a corner has gone beyond a change of government..IMF takeover, it is only a matter of time.

    very depressing, though I would love to be proven wrong...
    Repeal the 8th

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    Politics.ie Member Sensible Head's Avatar
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    IMF ?

    Seriously its like slaves asking for a different master to hold the whip

    We should not be looking in that direction but should be solving our own problems.
    Common Sense, the least common of all the senses.

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    Default Cowen's dithering undermined austerity

    Quote Originally Posted by Sensible Head View Post
    IMF ?

    Seriously its like slaves asking for a different master to hold the whip

    We should not be looking in that direction but should be solving our own problems.
    It's too late to choreograph a public sector reform based on the Croke Park agreement that would convince the bond market that productivity and natural wastage can reduce public admin costs. After all,it took three years for the HSE to get agreement to reform antiquated purchasing systems with trade unions,a feat that would take mere weeks or months in a major company.
    Last edited by patslatt; 3rd November 2010 at 02:10 AM.

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    In that event,the bond market would almost close down to Ireland,threatening economic chaos. The Irish may be giving two or three cheers for an IMF directed EU rescue in a matter of months. The public sector won't be cheering,though,as their pay and pensions would be slashed.[/QUOTE]

    Do you think that some how you are going to be immune from any cuts ?
    The IMF will be here alright but the sheer stupidity of some people wishing them upon us defies belief.

    I look forward to your posts this time next year informing us of how great a country the IMF has made us !!

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