Just looking for an over view from those in the know.
- 1.6m in employment (including much higher women participation).
- Employment levels have stopped dropping (emigration is keeping unemployment rate stable at 13%).
- The Current Revenue figures are in line with expectation ie they have stablised.
- the ECB interest rates are currently low.
The known knowns:
- we must take (at least) 15bn out of the economy through cuts/tax hikes, with a third to a half of that this year.
- the bondmarket thinks we are junk status (7%+).
- the British will take £83bn out their economy, with £4 billion out of their economy will lead to a double-dip recession.
- interest rates from ECB must rise this year as German economy grows.
- the Croke Park deal has tied the hands of the government to cut public sector spending further.
- private debt is massive and limits the capacity of people to take further hits.
The known unknowns:
- the price the bond market will charge in January and thereafter.
- the final cost of the bank bailouts.
- the effect NAMA sale of property will have on the market.
- the effect on the economy if social disorder breaks out.
- the effect that a change of governement will have.