Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 12

Thread: Big names genuinely at risk in GE?

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member odlum's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Party Secret
    Posts
    4,086
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)

    Default Big names genuinely at risk in GE?

    Can anyone give a precise enough list of the big names particularly on the FF side who are genuiney likely to lose their seats? I would hope all of them would but there is an imbecile element of 18% of voters still left in this country obviously blissfully unaware of the fact the country is destroyed. I have run out of phrases to express my anger like everyone else and will leave the punishment to be swift and severe at the General Election.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Grand Hotel Abyss
    Posts
    1,113
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    It would be easier to list the safe ones. Off the top of my head, Brian Cowen, Willie O'Dea, Brian Lenihan (if he runs, and even then not 100%), Mary Coughlin...... I'm sure there's maybe 10 more and after that, it's squeaky bums. There's hardly a safe FF seat in Dublin for a start.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member Aindriu's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Somewhere up in the Wicklow mountains digging an even deeper nuclear shelter
    Posts
    8,689
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I genuinely hope that the likes of Cowen, Hanafin, O'Cuiv, Coughlan, Harney and Lenahan are destroyed in the election.

    Sadly, there are still too many sheeple out there who think the sun still shines out of their ar$es.
    If you continue to elect idiots in elections, don't be surprised when the result is an idiotic government.

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Cork South Central - Cork SE LEA
    Posts
    2,931
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Cabinet members

    Batt O'Keeffe
    Tony Killeen
    Pat Carey
    John Gormley
    Eamon Ryan

    I'm not convinced Lenihan is safe either. I assume Harney won't run.

    Otherwise, on the FG front-bench, I could see Simon Coveney at risk to losing his seat to someone inside his own party.
    Economic Left/Right: -2.88 (down 3.63 since the financial crash)
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member Glucose's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    C6H12O6
    Posts
    852
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    O'Cuiv is safe because he is the only credible candidate in Connemara and Gaeltacht area. Galway west is really a 4 seat constituency and not a 5 seat becuuse of this. The rest of the candidates battle for the city votes.

    Bar Brian Cowen he is probably the safest FF seat.
    Beware of imposter Miss Piggy's on P.ie. There is only one Miss Piggy on P.ie. The others can FROG OFF.

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Grand Hotel Abyss
    Posts
    1,113
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    Cabinet members

    Batt O'Keeffe
    Tony Killeen
    Pat Carey
    John Gormley
    Eamon Ryan

    I'm not convinced Lenihan is safe either. I assume Harney won't run.

    Otherwise, on the FG front-bench, I could see Simon Coveney at risk to losing his seat to someone inside his own party.
    Only one of Hanafin/ Barry Andrews can make it and its not beyond the bounds that both will fail.
    Last edited by d7bohs; 1st November 2010 at 12:50 PM.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Posts
    2,719
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by d7bohs View Post
    Only one of Hanifin/ Barry Andrews can make it and its not beyond the bounds that both will fail.
    I agree.

    The best way for Hanafin to secure her seat would of course be to run for the leadership.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    1,818
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    All Dublin FF TDs are surely under pressure.
    Hopefully Hanafin and Lenihan. Although, Lenny will get through with the courageous C factor despite his terrible performance as a Minister of Finance.

    It would be fantastic to see Ahern and Dempsey get the chop as well.

    However, the FF voting machine will pull the election performance up by about 4-5% over the polls which will be enough for some of the big names to get through. Won’t be much consolation for the party if they are below 40 seats though.

  9. #9

    Default

    Cowen - safe
    Coughlan - safe - she'll hold the Ff seat unless The Cope runs.
    Brian Lenihan - safe. Higgins take the new seat.
    Martin - at risk, but (horrible and crass as it is to say) the death of his daughter will engender a lot of sympathy.
    Hanafin - Severe risk - its defo her or Andrews... Andrews family has strong local ties.
    Dermot Ahern - safe
    Noel Dempsey - prob safe. Should be ahead of Johnny Brady.
    Brendan Smith - safe - the other non-entity FF to go.
    Tony Killeen - gone - Dooley to pip him in holding 1 FF seat.
    Batt O'Keeffe - gone if Moynihan has done his groundwork.
    Pat Carey - Severe risk 50/50 him or Noel Ahern to go.
    Dick Roche - safe-ish. Behan going native gives him the FF machine.

    Eamon Ryan - Severe Risk
    John Gormley - Severe Risk

    Notable FF:
    Dara Colleary - at big risk. If Bev is ahead and Jerry Crwley does well....
    John Curran - risky, but Harney & Gogarty should see Chief Whip safe...
    John McGuinness - safe - FF will lose 1 seat, maybe 2.. but he'll be ok.
    Ned O'Keeffe - 50/50 between him and Michael Ahern to go.
    Noel O'Flynn - gone
    Michael Finneran - safe
    Jim McDaid - 50/50, please god let him go before Blaney
    Sean Haughey - should hang on.
    Michael Woods - big risk (if he's running?)
    Chris Andrews - big risk, but probably hang on with no McDowell and Gormely taking the heat.
    Conor Lenihan - 50/50 him or O'Connor. I think Lenihan will go.
    Frank Fahy - Gone. goodbye, cheerio.
    Marie Hoctor - mild risk depending on Lowry & O'Meara performances.
    Martin Manseragh - gone.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member RahenyFG's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Wernham and Hogg Ltd, Slough
    Posts
    9,201
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    If Harney runs she'll lose her seat. She probably won't run. More than 10 years years of terrible ministerial experience means she'll have a more than decent ministerial pension.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •