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Thread: Dublin North West

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    Default Dublin North West

    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North West First Preference Votes

    My predictions for this constituency are 2 Lab and 1 SF. Shortall will probably top the poll which will bring in a running mate which is likely to be John Lyons the sitting Cllr. and also Dessie Ellis as the SF. I can see both Ahern and Carey loosing their seats. Any thoughts?
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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Dublin North West | David Higgins

    Exactly as I predicted

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    My thoughts would be that FF will want to run one candidate here and seeing as Carey is a minister he would be odds on to get the place in the hopes that the FF vote would consolidate behind one candidate

    Lab will be targeting two here and going on recent OPs they Shorthall will top the poll with the second getting in comfortably enough ....

    How far is Labs selection convention in this area how many Cllr have thrown their hats into the ring and who would be the best/worst to go with?

    FG seem a long way off and with tormey's recent anti EK sentiment might not be HQ choice but who else would run

    SF seem to be likely to make a gain here with ellis running quite well in 07 but with need to see a large increase in FPs as Lab will be the ones to benefit from any FF/FG elimination as can be seen from 07 were tormey transferred over 2000 vote to shorthall

    2 lab last between Carey and Ellis ...i think FG are too far behind to get a seat here unless they could find a parachute for DNW? any suggestions?

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    Politics.ie Member jackryan's Avatar
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    I still see FF 1 especially as FG so weak if tormey as it appears to be even the most ardent FGer would be questioning his ability to pull it off!! FF will prob find that ahern retires, and so carey and macauliiffe who will see as running as a chance next time!
    Lab defo 1, 2 tough not impossible but depends on genoristy of RS!!
    SF real chance of a seat but depends on strength of Gilmore tide! if tormey is below both SF & Lab2 his transfers will favour Lab 2!! And if Carey is a goner before that who knows?

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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LgCastell View Post
    2 lab last between Carey and Ellis ...i think FG are too far behind to get a seat here unless they could find a parachute for DNW? any suggestions?
    Eamon Dunphy would be an ideal celebrity parachute. He's from Drumcondra which is just over the border in Dublin Central but I'm sure he knows the area well.

    If HQ wants to burn Tormey then Declan Flanagan would probably be second in line to the nomination.

    He's a Cllr for Artane Whitehall. A section of the ward is in DNW.

    ElectionsIreland.org: 2009 Local - Artane Whitehall First Preference Votes

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    Politics.ie Member Reality bites's Avatar
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    I believe candidates will be Shortall & Lyons, no others will be put before selection convention
    'I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts' -Mark Twain

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    Politics.ie Member Rocket Man's Avatar
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    I would think that Lab should get two here alright.
    The last seat between FF and SF.
    Pat Carey is one of the very few FFers that I would be sorry to see lose out but he certainly has a big fight on his hands.
    As for FG, I really hope the people of DNW have more consideration than to inflict Dr. Bill on us!!

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    I Agree Rocket (reluctantly!) - Carey appears to be a decent, honest man. Surely, the people of Finglas can differentiate between FF the party, and one of its few gentlemen?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rocket Man View Post
    I would think that Lab should get two here alright.
    The last seat between FF and SF.
    Pat Carey is one of the very few FFers that I would be sorry to see lose out but he certainly has a big fight on his hands.
    As for FG, I really hope the people of DNW have more consideration than to inflict Dr. Bill on us!!
    I cant think of a single reason why I or anyone else should be sorry to see Carey lose a seat.In the dail over 20 years and like most FFers you'd have space left over writing his achievements on the the back of a brown paper envelope.Could very easily see 2 lab and 1 sf returned her

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    Will Noel Ahern bother standing the next time given his age, he's almost 66?

    Bill Tormey has been knocking on the door there for years and years and years. Has he any hope of getting in?

    Pretty sad constituency if Shortall tops the poll.

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