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Thread: US Election Political Betting

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Default US Election Political Betting

    Being having a look around for betting opportunities on the house elections...

    Paddy Power has no market...

    Betfair has a very poor one.... (1/100 about the GOP getting over 221 seats anyone??)

    Sportsspreads has none...

    Ah Ladbrokes has a decent market.... GOP 220-230 at 5/1 looks attractive....

    Anyone any other sites?

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    Paddy Power is already paying out on Democrats keeping the House of Representatives, and the election hasen't even happened yet. And I wouldn't bet on Democrats keeping the Senate either.

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goober View Post
    Paddy Power is already paying out on Democrats keeping the House of Representatives, and the election hasen't even happened yet. And I wouldn't bet on Democrats keeping the Senate either.
    The Dems keeping the HoR?? They're paying out?? My latest reckoning is GOP 226 DEM 209 and that's pretty conservative... RCP reckons GOP 244 DEM 191...

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    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    Intrade has one that featured on ABC (I think) some years back. It's a market in probabilities, as actual election-betting isn't allowed over there.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Casualbets View Post
    The Dems keeping the HoR?? They're paying out?? My latest reckoning is GOP 226 DEM 209 and that's pretty conservative... RCP reckons GOP 244 DEM 191...
    Sorry I must have been unclear. They are paying out early to those who bet against Dems keeping the House... and have not been accepting any more bets on the House. Hopefully they will also have to pay out on those who bet against the Dems keeping the Senate.

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    I think a 50/50 split house is likely in the Senate.
    7 toss up left. Dems up in 2, GOP up in 5 marginally but I think they will carry the lot with their current momentum and unpopularity of Obama’s policies. That will make it 50-50.
    All could depend on what happens in Nevada and Washington.

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    Why don't we use this thread to post our predictions?

    I will go a little out on a limb and predict that the Republicans will gain 10 Senate seats, for a 51-49 majotity.

    And that there will be a tsunami in the House races, with Republicans gaining 75 seats, for a majority of 253-182.

    (What the heck, no one will remember such a bold prediction unless it turns out to be right -- whereas if I predicted a GOP gain of 56 seats, which I think is the minimum the GOP figures to gain, it would simply mirror conventional wisdom.)

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    Senate to be 53 dem 47 reps
    House to be 207 dem 228 reps

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    Quote Originally Posted by smitchy2 View Post
    I think a 50/50 split house is likely in the Senate.
    7 toss up left. Dems up in 2, GOP up in 5 marginally but I think they will carry the lot with their current momentum and unpopularity of Obama’s policies. That will make it 50-50.
    All could depend on what happens in Nevada and Washington.
    If there's a 50:50 split in the Senate then VP Biden has the casting-vote. In practice, the fillibuster rule (i.e. you need 60 votes to force a vote) means that they will not be able to pass anything on their own without resorting to "reconciliation" again.

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    House: 254 REP, 181 DEM
    Senate: 50 REP, 50 DEM (only reason to make Biden revelant)

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