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Thread: Red C Analysis

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    Default Red C Analysis

    For those who are interested, my constituency analysis of Sunday's poll is now up

    RedC Analysis Oct 2010 « Irish Polling Report

    Headlines figures are as follows;

    FG 61
    LP 57
    FF 27
    SF 7
    GP 3
    OTH 11

  2. #2
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    interesting stuff, as usual

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    Politics.ie Member gijoe's Avatar
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    Isn't Cavan Monaghan a 4 seater next time? Louth got the 5th seat although with the CC it is really a 4 seater.

    PS I just checked, I was wrong it is a 5 seater.

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    Interesting analysis.

    One thing I'm not sure you take into account is the effect of FF running too many candidates.

    For example, in Cork East, if FF run two and get 18%, split the vote 10%-8% and only achieve a 65% internal transfer rate, they would fall short of FG2 if FG get their vote management bang on.
    Last edited by locke; 26th October 2010 at 11:53 PM.
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  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by gijoe View Post
    Isn't Cavan Monaghan a 4 seater next time? Louth got the 5th seat although with the CC it is really a 4 seater.
    CM was a 4-seater last time due to O'Hanlon - I've got Louth as a 5-seater, but the 1 FF seat is Kirk, returned automatically.

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    Interesting analysis.

    One thing I'm not sure you take into account is the effect of FF running too many candidates.

    For example, in Cork East, if FF run two and get 18%, split the vote 10%-8% and only achieve a 65% internal transfer rate, they could fall short of FG2 if FG get their vote management bang on.
    Ta.

    Yes, I've been cautious to avoid making that assumption too much, except where I'm certain it'll happen, as I think there'll be a few retirements that will sort out those issues, but yes there and in Dun Laoghaire it could be a factor. On balance though they are so so low it's hard to believe that they are doing even this badly....

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    Politics.ie Member gijoe's Avatar
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    In reality the polls overstate the Green vote consistently because of its concentration in the younger age groups which then do not actually show up to vote in anything like the numbers of older voters. Consequently I reckon that in reality even at 4% in the poll they will actually return no seat.

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    Where will Labour get the money to run a national campaign. Say 70 candidates at 20 grand a piece=1.4million.

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    Politics.ie Member ONQ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dotski_w_ View Post
    For those who are interested, my constituency analysis of Sunday's poll is now up

    RedC Analysis Oct 2010 « Irish Polling Report

    Headlines figures are as follows;

    FG 61
    LP 57
    FF 27
    SF 7
    GP 3
    OTH 11
    So its Labour/Fianna Fáil/Sinn Féin then,

    (ducks)

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by gijoe View Post
    In reality the polls overstate the Green vote consistently because of its concentration in the younger age groups which then do not actually show up to vote in anything like the numbers of older voters. Consequently I reckon that in reality even at 4% in the poll they will actually return no seat.
    Possibly, they certainly poll better in RedC for some reason they averaged 7% (up to 8%) in them in the run up to the last GE, whereas MRBI , Lansdowne and Millward/Brown were all more accurate at 5 or 6% (they got 4.7%). Tommy O'Brien presumably would say this was RedC bing right, and the methodology of the others and the Dept of Local Govt using "flawed methodology"...!

    I'm not sure though that the current GP crop of voters are so young though - 4 years ago, maybe, but I think that if they've stood still they've lost younger/more radical voters and gained a few of my generation who actually think being in govt and trying to get some of your policies in is worthwhile.

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