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Thread: Seats in the next Dail : Where the money is going

  1. #1

    Default Seats in the next Dail : Where the money is going

    CORRECTED AND UPDATED WITH SP and PBP seats.

    Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

    Just looking at the odds being offered for seat ranges for each party at he next election; the money would suggest that this is how the next Dail would look;

    FF : 52 (-24 on 2007)
    FG : 54 (+3)
    LP : 48 (+28)
    GP : 1 (-5) - corrected
    SF : 8 (+4)
    SP : 2 (+2)
    PBP:1 (+1)

    Now you can see thois totals to 166, because the odds include the bookie's margin (they'll never offer even money to two horses in a two horse race). We can assume that there will be independents and others in the next Dail, so each party needs to be pegged back a little.
    Last edited by Keith-M; 25th October 2010 at 07:09 PM.
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
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    Greens and ff look a little high, fg too low

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    Where exactly are you taking those seats off the PP site?

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iarmhi Gael View Post
    Where exactly are you taking those seats off the PP site?
    Each party has a range of seats and corresponding odds, I then have a spreadsheet that turns the odds into a probability factor and you weight off the extremes at both ends proportionally to to the probability and you get a mean point for the seats by party.
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith-M View Post
    I then have a spreadsheet
    We know how good he is at spreadsheets

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by FakeViking View Post
    We know how good he is at spreadsheets

    Indeed, it was my spreadsheet that suggested a FF/PD/GP coalition as a likely option in the build up to the last election and I got vilified for even suggesting it!
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith-M View Post
    Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

    Just looking at the odds being offered for seat ranges for each party at he next election; the money would suggest that this is how the next Dail would look;

    FF : 52 (-24 on 2007)
    FG : 54 (+3)
    LP : 48 (+28)
    GP : 4 (-2)
    SF : 8 (+4)

    Now you can see thois totals to 166, because the odds include the bookie's margin (they'll never offer even money to two horses in a two horse race). We can assume that there will be <>5 independents and others in the next Dail, so each party needs to be pegged back by a seat.

    Personally I cannot see the Greens holding four, but the others seem pretty accurate to me.
    Doesn't read right to me. Can you give it to us Constituency by Constituency? The Greens can only get 1 seat if any

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    I predict that the winner will be - the landed oligarchy and their bankers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith-M View Post
    Each party has a range of seats and corresponding odds, I then have a spreadsheet that turns the odds into a probability factor and you weight off the extremes at both ends proportionally to to the probability and you get a mean point for the seats by party.



    And how do you equate your findings to where the money is going?

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iarmhi Gael View Post
    And how do you equate your findings to where the money is going?

    The bookmakers set their odds based on where the money is going. For example, if there was a sudden rush of money to Labour getting more than 60 seats, the odds would drop, the probability would increase and my spreadsheet would start to project more seats for Labour.
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

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