We are going to see a scenario that we have not had to consider before in the next election - where will FF transfers go? We have very little evidence from previous elections as there nearly always was an FFer in the field to soak up spare transfers and surpluses. But now we are going to have to ask whether the transfers will benefit FG or Labour as they will be fighting it out for the last seat in many constituencies with the victor possibly claiming the prize of largest party and the office of Taoiseach.
On a superficial analysis of what evidence there is on my part the first beneficiary of FF transfers seems to be the candidate(s) most local to the eliminated FFer and then it seems to be FG ahead of Labour by some margin - probably reflecting the conservative nature of much of the FF vote. So from a starting point of where we stand today it looks as if FG has most to gain, which will probably see them taking a number of final seats in constituencies ahead of Labour.
Anyone want to contradict?