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Thread: ESRI Quarterly Report

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    Politics.ie Member Dreaded_Estate's Avatar
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    Default ESRI Quarterly Report

    http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publica...2010Aut_ES.pdf

    The two most significant announcements on economic matters since the last Commentary were the release of the Quarterly National Accounts for Q2 2010 on 23 September 2010 and the government’s statement on banking on 30 September. In the case of the former, the news was, at best, disappointing while in the case of the latter, it was horrendous. Both have impacted upon our view of the timing of potential recovery in the economy and on appropriate policy.

    We now expect that GNP will contract by 1½ per cent this year, down from - ½ per cent in our Summer Commentary. For GDP, we now expect there to be a decline of ¼ per cent this year. This represents a change on our summer forecast when we expected GDP to grow by ¼ per cent. For 2011, we expect GNP to grow by 2 per cent and for GDP to grow by 2¼ per cent. Again, these are marginally down relative to our last Commentary.
    We now expect that employment will average 1.86 million this year, down 68,000 from 2009, a fall of 3½ per cent. We expect the rate of unemployment to average 13¼ per cent. For 2011, we expect the number employed to average 1.85 million and the rate of unemployment to average 13½ per cent.

    In the year ending April 2010, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) recorded net outward migration to have been 34,500. This was well below our forecast of 70,000. However, we discuss how this figure of 34,500 seems to be a conservative estimate of the rate of outflow when compared with estimates of migration contained in another CSO publication, namely, the Quarterly National Household Survey. We expect the net outflow in the year ending April 2011 to be 60,000. This is an increase of 10,000 on our earlier forecast.
    The General Government Deficit is expected to be 31 per cent of GDP this year, a truly dramatic figure. Of course, almost two-thirds of this is a one-off extraordinary item related to the banking bailout. For 2011, we expect the deficit to be 10 per cent of GDP, based on a budgetary package of €4 billion in savings.

    On inflation, we expect HICP inflation to average -1½ per cent this year and + ½ per cent in 2011. For the CPI, the corresponding forecasts are -¾ per cent in 2010 and + 1¾ per cent in 2011. We expect wage growth to be negative in both 2010 and in 2011, at rates of -3 per cent and -1 per cent respectively.

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    Politics.ie Member Dreaded_Estate's Avatar
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    This is probably what will draw most headlines.

    # In our General Assessment, we look at the budgetary challenges facing the country and in particular at the prospects of bringing the deficit down to sustainable levels in a reasonable timeframe. Using the “Low Growth” profile as published by the ESRI in July 2010, we assess what level of savings will be required to achieve a deficit of 3% by 2014. Our calculations suggest that savings of up to €15 billion could be needed, i.e., twice the sum that was under discussion at the time Ireland and the Commission agreed to the 2014 deadline.

    # We express a concern over the potential negative impact on the economy of this scale of adjustment over this period of time.

    # While the 2014 date strikes us as worryingly ambitious, we are mindful that an extension is highly unlikely and so we must operate within the constraints as presented. Although we have based our forecasts on a budgetary package of €4 billion of savings, it could well be that a higher amount will be sought. Whatever it is, the scale of the task is such that there will be a need for adjustments in current and capital spending and in taxation.

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    Politics.ie Member spidermom's Avatar
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    All Good so!!!!


    SIGH...!!
    When a man sits with a pretty girl for an hour, it seems like a minute. But let him sit on a hot stove for a minute and it's longer than any hour. That's relativity.

    ALBERT EINSTEIN

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    Politics.ie Member spidermom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreaded_Estate View Post
    This is probably what will draw most headlines.
    They're right...can't be done..not be 2013..it'll kill us altogether.
    Labour and FG know it too...they're just fibbing till they can cut a new deal as the new government...WITH A MANDATE!!!
    When a man sits with a pretty girl for an hour, it seems like a minute. But let him sit on a hot stove for a minute and it's longer than any hour. That's relativity.

    ALBERT EINSTEIN

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    Politics.ie Member j26's Avatar
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    They're factoring in a 0.25% increase in ECB rate next year. At the same time pay expected to fall by 2.75% in real terms, and that's before tax and spending adjustments are factored in

    There be pain ahead

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    If only we hadn't turned that corner
    Last edited by David Cochrane; 21st October 2010 at 01:35 AM. Reason: Removed image, it was displaying message about hot-linking.
    We have turned the corner.I commend this Budget to the House. Brian Lenihan, 9 December 2009

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    Politics.ie Member LiquidPaddy's Avatar
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    Ah, I love a good bedtime story... fairy tales...

    How about this addendum as a verdict on property prices from daft.ie :

    Hawthorn Homes, Hawthorn, Bailieborough, Co. Cavan - House For Sale

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    Quote Originally Posted by LiquidPaddy View Post
    Ah, I love a good bedtime story... fairy tales...

    How about this addendum as a verdict on property prices from daft.ie :

    Hawthorn Homes, Hawthorn, Bailieborough, Co. Cavan - House For Sale
    A house that could be bought in cash, and it is still probably overpriced.
    We have turned the corner.I commend this Budget to the House. Brian Lenihan, 9 December 2009

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    Ah well, at least the Banks bondholders will still get paid. Nice to see FF have the best interests of it,s citizens at heart. Maybe we should give them a small bonus, as a token of our goodwill, like the shirt off our backs or our first born.
    Last edited by MPB; 21st October 2010 at 02:02 AM.

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    Abandoning four-year plan now would be insanity - The Irish Times - Thu, Oct 21, 2010

    Dan O Briens comment and analysis on the Esri report ..

    Robut

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