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Thread: What would be the effect of another 20% of the electorate voting in the next GE

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    Default What would be the effect of another 20% of the electorate voting in the next GE

    At the last elections in 2009(local,lisbon &by-elections) there was roughly about 60% turnout by the electorate, What if circumstances arose where another 20% decided to go out and vote. Could this cause a huge upset in the predicted figures for the 3 main parties?
    Would an 80%+ turnout bring big changes?
    Elections 2009: Voting ends - RT News

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    Politics.ie Member firefly123's Avatar
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    I imagine it would mostly be made up of protest voters so not so good for fianna fail.

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    Politics.ie Member Squire Allworthy's Avatar
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    I would think that the the make up of voting intentions would be much the same as those that do vote.

    If you are a political animal I would have thought it better to target those that do vote rather than hope for those that don't to turn up.

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    An 80% turnout is almost impossible, for a couple of reasons. The first is that no matter how regularly you update the register, people leave the country, and people die. For people leaving the country, removing themselves from the register won't be top of their priorities, and when someone dies its often months before their relatives get around to removing them from the register, which is understandable enough. But all those people are still on the register come polling day.
    Then, come polling day, there'll be lots of people who just can't vote. People in hospital, on holidays, out of the country on business, people not in hospital but incapacitated/bedridden in some way, people working or studying the far end of the country from where they're registered to vote, etc etc. As a result, the reality is that a turnout of 80% is virtually impossible, and would in itself represent virtually everyone who was physically able to vote on the day, actually doing so.
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    Could have a significant negative impact on fianna fail vote. If the current situation doesn't change substantially, then I reckon a lot of FF voters will stay home. This is the atavistic lot, Dev's legacy, those whose parents voted FF and have always voted FF. They won't vote Labour, and definitely not FG. Possibly Sinn Fein, but they most probably would abstain. This implies the double whammy - less FF voters coming out, and the 20% increase likely coming from "anyone but FF" means huge volatility, but all away from FF. Dunno where it goes to, though. Independents, local issues, local candidates, kooks...

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    Politics.ie Member Kevin Doyle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster View Post
    An 80% turnout is almost impossible, for a couple of reasons. The first is that no matter how regularly you update the register, people leave the country, and people die. For people leaving the country, removing themselves from the register won't be top of their priorities, and when someone dies its often months before their relatives get around to removing them from the register, which is understandable enough. But all those people are still on the register come polling day.
    Then, come polling day, there'll be lots of people who just can't vote. People in hospital, on holidays, out of the country on business, people not in hospital but incapacitated/bedridden in some way, people working or studying the far end of the country from where they're registered to vote, etc etc. As a result, the reality is that a turnout of 80% is virtually impossible, and would in itself represent virtually everyone who was physically able to vote on the day, actually doing so.
    Holding the elections on a Saturday/Sunday might address some of the problems you've mentioned, would also ease the hassle the day off school causes for many parents.
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    Politics.ie Member ocoonassa's Avatar
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    I'm usually part of the third of the electorate who are sick to the back teeth of The Party running things and abstain. Next time though I'll either be spoiling the ballot, or voting for the least noxious independent I can find just to try and oust people who voted for the bailout. However all the other people I know who abstain are unlikely to change their behaviour. After all, who is there to vote for that could be any use?

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    Politics.ie Member oggy's Avatar
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    Wasnt it the French who got an 85% turnout not only once but twice in their last Pres election ?
    30% did not vote in 2007 and I cannot see that changing for next election

    FF got 850000 votes in 2007 and what happens these come the election is the only thing worth talking about. Polls say FF are going to lose at least 300000 votes and Labour appear to be the main beneficiary.
    The ABFF firmly believe FF are heading for destruction and their campaign will be 100% designed to do so. The question here is, will FF be as ruthless in the campaign as the ABFF. FF might have a lot to answer for but the ABFF have a lot to prove.
    Simply cannot see an increased turnout but rather a drop of 5%

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    Politics.ie Member Panopticon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by charley View Post
    At the last elections in 2009(local,lisbon &by-elections) there was roughly about 60% turnout by the electorate, What if circumstances arose where another 20% decided to go out and vote. Could this cause a huge upset in the predicted figures for the 3 main parties?
    Would an 80%+ turnout bring big changes?
    Elections 2009: Voting ends - RT News
    They would surely all vote Shinner (rural) or Socialist/PBP (urban).
    Positives: Sinn Féin and far left parties are under-represented by PR-STV; they represent ideologies that it's good to accommodate in parliamentary democracy, so their supporters do not become alienated from it.
    Negatives: maybe they aren't voting because they don't feel very strongly in favour of their choice, or don't know much about politics. Those are good reasons not to vote.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ocoonassa View Post
    I'm usually part of the third of the electorate who are sick to the back teeth of The Party running things and abstain. Next time though I'll either be spoiling the ballot, or voting for the least noxious independent I can find just to try and oust people who voted for the bailout. However all the other people I know who abstain are unlikely to change their behaviour. After all, who is there to vote for that could be any use?
    You have no right to complain about anything if you don`t vote. Why on earth would you spoil your vote-what the hell good would that do?

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