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Thread: S+P: Bailout may go from €50bn to €90bn. Last of our cash goes into the furnace.

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    Default S+P: Bailout may go from €50bn to €90bn. Last of our cash goes into the furnace.

    As this news seeps out, the government is reduced to throwing the last of our cash into the furnace. Next to go will be our Pension Fund. Robert Maxwell was in the ha'penny places.

    Unfortunately, things aren't as bad as Mr Lenihan told us last week. They are almost certainly much worse.

    First things first. Even the €34bn cost of bailing out Anglo, which the government insists is a "worst-case scenario", will almost certainly be exceeded. That is the view of ratings agency Standard & Poor's, whose bearish stance on the likely cost of the Irish bank bailout has consistently been vindicated by events.

    For what it is worth, some analysts now reckon that bailing out Anglo will cost up to €40bn.

    [...]

    Between them the six Irish-owned banks had €99bn of residential mortgages on their books at the end of June. With house prices now down by at least 50pc from the peak and still falling, a significant writedown in the bank's mortgage loans books is inevitable.

    Even a 20pc writedown would cost the banks a further €20bn in fresh loan losses.

    The combined €50bn that AIB, Bank of Ireland and the Permo have lent to SMEs and other companies must also be vulnerable to further, substantial writedowns as is their €11.5bn of personal lending. And as for the banks' non-Nama property and construction lending, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't cause for a few sleepless nights among the surviving bank bosses.

    Add it all up and it is clear that even the €55bn estimate for the cost of bailing out the banking system will be comfortably exceeded, with Standard & Poor's now putting the likely figure at €90bn.

    The way things are going, I suspect that the S&P estimate could well turn out to be a floor, below which the cost won't fall, rather than a ceiling, above which it won't rise.
    Markets are right to be worried -- 'final' €50bn to fix banks looks like tip of iceberg - Irish, Business - Independent.ie
    Last edited by He3; 13th October 2010 at 12:49 PM.
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    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    well, duh
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

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    Politics.ie Member neiphin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by He3 View Post
    As this news seeps out, the government is reduced to throwing the last of our cash into the furnace. Next to go will be our Pension Fund. Robert Maxwell was in the ha'penny places.



    Markets are right to be worried -- 'final' €50bn to fix banks looks like tip of iceberg - Irish, Business - Independent.ie
    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1_baJ35jco]YouTube - Brian Lenihan on Prime Time[/ame]
    you lie
    lendahand said this would be the cheepest bailout in history
    "If we VOTE YES there will be no more austere budgets. Fact " Hammer, mayday 12'

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    Will somebody stop these idiots in government please!

    They are determined to destroy it even for productive sectors of society. Why on earth are innocent people being forced to pay back for lack of government oversight of the economy and bad investments by wealthy business people.

    Sorry, that was a silly statement/question petunia
    Alexander Suvorov: "The bullet is a fool, the bayonet is a fine chap."

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    Quote Originally Posted by absconded View Post
    Will somebody stop these idiots in government please!

    They are determined to destroy it even for productive sectors of society. Why on earth are innocent people being forced to pay back for lack of government oversight of the economy and bad investments by wealthy business people.

    Sorry, that was a silly statement/question petunia
    Weep for our beautiful country .It has been destroyed by incompetence ,greed and most of all, corruption

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    Politics.ie Member neiphin's Avatar
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    September 1913

    What need you being come to sense,
    But fumble in a greasy till,
    And add the halfpence to the pence
    And prayer to shivering prayer, until
    You have dried the marrow from the bone?
    For men were born to pray and save:
    Romantic Ireland's dead and gone,
    It's with O'Leary in the grave.

    Yet they were of a different kind,
    The names that stilled your childish play,
    They have gone about the world like wind,
    But little time had they to pray
    For whom the hangman's rope was spun,
    And what, God help us, could they save?
    Romantic Ireland's dead and gone,
    It's with O'Leary in the grave.

    Was it for this the wild geese spread
    They grey wing upon every tide;
    For this that all the blood was shed,
    For this Edward Fitzgerald died,
    And Robert Emmet and Wolfe Tone,
    All that delirium of the brave?
    Romantic Ireland's dead and gone,
    It's with O'Leary in the grave.

    Yet could we turn the years again,
    And call those exiles as they were
    In all their loneliness and pain,
    You'd cry, "Some woman's yellow hair
    Has maddened every mother's son":
    They weighed so lightly what they gave
    But let them be they're dead and gone,
    They're with O'Leary in the grave.
    "If we VOTE YES there will be no more austere budgets. Fact " Hammer, mayday 12'

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    Politics.ie Member roc_'s Avatar
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    Tip of the iceberg is right. When the figures and realities first started being broadly explicated back in 2007, many people not in thrall to state propaganda (myself included) were talking about the inevitability of debt having to be liquidised in one way or another in the midst of inevitable economic downturn and the need to attain economic equilibrium - in not just the sub prime and property development loans, but also consumer mortgages, credit cards, corporate bonds, credit defaults swaps, FX derivatives, emerging market loans, commodity derivatives... A lot deflated, more to deflate as we might say now. Didn't think it would take such a long stretch of time though. But it's unbelievable the time lag in knowledge of these kinds of things hitting home with the general public. It says a lot about the kind of media we have.
    Last edited by roc_; 11th October 2010 at 06:53 PM.
    “Words are animals, alive with a will of their own”.

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    Quote Originally Posted by olamp View Post
    Weep for our beautiful country .It has been destroyed by incompetence ,greed and most of all, corruption
    FF/PD/GP knew where this was leading to even during bubble times.
    They placated everyone by handing out "social partner" bribes left right and centre. Quangos, Unions, NGOs, Workers etc etc etc. Everyone was showered with money from revenues which were not sustainable.

    Who benefited while we were all being duped into believing we had a productive model economy?

    Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. A tangled web.

    The showering of funds continues despite vague warnings of them ending sometime in the future. (Still no Austerity despite a huge deficit)

    Who gains now?

    Friends of FF, Bankers, Legal profession, Property Developers, Opposition Politicians etc. Practically the same tangled web.

    You & I little people are paying the debt for the previous and continuing party and FF still have not applied the brakes.

    They gain & we pay.

    They won΄t stop till they΄ve got this country into a babylonian captivity and/or collapsed the Euro.

    FF is a mafia, and we are sheep.
    Alexander Suvorov: "The bullet is a fool, the bayonet is a fine chap."

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    Quote Originally Posted by He3 View Post
    As this news seeps out, the government is reduced to throwing the last of our cash into the furnace. Next to go will be our Pension Fund. Robert Maxwell was in the ha'penny places.

    Looks like the pension fund just went!!!!!!!!!!

    Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will use a €20bn cash pile to stave off a Greek-style rescue, as the Government taps the funds to avoid paying record rates to borrow.
    Government to use cash pile to avoid record borrowing rates - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

    The article does NOT say where the money came from.
    ‘The Great only appear great because we are on our knees: Let Us Rise!’ “ (James Larkin)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ulster-Lad View Post
    Looks like the pension fund just went!!!!!!!!!!



    Government to use cash pile to avoid record borrowing rates - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

    The article does NOT say where the money came from.
    Is there no end to what they΄ll do to save their own skins and their developer buddies.

    I can see them running out of the Dail under armed guard and cover of darkness in a years time when that €20 Billion has run out, their ministerial cars stuffed with silverware from the Dail restaurant.
    Alexander Suvorov: "The bullet is a fool, the bayonet is a fine chap."

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