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Thread: GOP - ahead in popular vote, but control of house a toss up

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Default GOP - ahead in popular vote, but control of house a toss up

    I've constructed an Electoral Calculator in excel using both national and local polls - and the interesting thing is that even though the GOP are well ahead in the polls (latest RCP Average - 5.8%) they're still not in safe majority territory. At a lead of 5.8%, my calculator reckons the result would be :

    GOP 222 DEM 213

    If you exclude the local polls and apply the swing (8.3%) to all 435 districts the result is practically the same :

    GOP 223 DEM 212

    If the two parties were to tie nationally, the result would be as follows :

    GOP 197 DEM 238

    I wonder is perhaps turnout lower in massively Democrat Congressional district areas, i.e inner city areas, which might explain the discrepancy....

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    Politics.ie Member LeDroit's Avatar
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    As we have seen on the Obamacare issue, the Dems are a broad church with right of centre Dems being virtually Republican. With the country trending back to the right generally, more right of centre Dems will get in so even though the numbers of Reps to Dems looks tight the Congress will be comfortably right of centre. So Carter, sorry Obama, will have a 'mare of a time getting his agenda through.
    "A govt big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have" Thomas Jefferson

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    Aren't a lot of the Congressional seats heavily gerrymandered, and both parties are at it, so that the huge majority of seats are pretty safe? I seem to recall a lot of discussion about that a couple of years back. Not a huge follower of US politics though, anyone know how many of the seats are marginal and could ever possibly switch sides?

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    Politics.ie Member spotty's Avatar
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    Your calculator is bunk. The Democrats pile up millions of useless votes in the inner city districts where they win 90-10. This skews the figures. A GOP lead of 5% in the national vote is absolutely unprecedented, and would give them 240-250 seats.
    Spotty. A pimple on the arse of politics.

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SideysGhost View Post
    Aren't a lot of the Congressional seats heavily gerrymandered, and both parties are at it, so that the huge majority of seats are pretty safe? I seem to recall a lot of discussion about that a couple of years back. Not a huge follower of US politics though, anyone know how many of the seats are marginal and could ever possibly switch sides?
    You're right there, some of the districts look absolutely bizarre on the state maps, though they doubtless make perfect cynical sense in terms of demographics.... I'll have to compile a gallery of some of the worst offenders....

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spotty View Post
    Your calculator is bunk. The Democrats pile up millions of useless votes in the inner city districts where they win 90-10. This skews the figures. A GOP lead of 5% in the national vote is absolutely unprecedented, and would give them 240-250 seats.
    Eh sorry, its not bunk. You're right, the Dems may well have millions of useless votes (and it's only a handful of districts they'd win 90-10), but similarly so do the GOP in rural districts in the south and west.

    I've included about 70 district polls in the calculator (mainly key/competitive races) and the result is virtually the same as the national swing.

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    Which polls have you based these on - is it likely voter polls?

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Some of the more interesting races...

    California 18 - Dennis Cardoza (D) unopposed last time, down 6 pts now...
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - California 18th District - Berryhill vs. Cardoza

    California 20 - Jim Costa (D) won by 48 pts in '08, now ahead by just 2 pts....
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - California 20th District - Vidak vs. Costa

    California 47 - Sanchez (D) won by 44 pts in '09, now ahead by just 2 pts...
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - California 47th District - Tran vs. Sanchez

    Connecticut 4 - Himes (D) only won by 4 pts in '08, but is bucking the trend in the polls and has been slightly ahead in both polls conducted...
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Connecticut 4th District - Debicella vs. Himes

    Florida 22 - Klein (D) won by 9 pts against black GOP candidate West in '08, facing him again and ahead by 5 pts in latest poll. One of those districts horribly redistricted.
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Florida 22nd District - West vs. Klein

    Hawaii 5 - Hanabusa (D) won 77-19 in '08; only 1 pt ahead in latest poll.
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Hawaii 1st District - Djou vs. Hanabusa

    Michigan 7 - Shauer (D) only won by 2 pts in '08, but is currently tied with Walberg (R) whom he defeated in '08.
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Michigan 7th District - Walberg vs. Schauer

    Michigan 15 - Dingell (D) won by 46 pts in '08, only poll shows him 4 pts down.
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Michigan 15th District - Steele vs. Dingell

    New Jersey 3 - Adler (D) won by only 4 pts in '08, leading by 3 pts in only poll.
    RealClearPolitics - 2010 Election Maps - Battle for the House

    New York 24 - Arcuri (D) again won by only 4 pts in '08, leading by 8 pts in recent poll.
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - New York 24th District - Hanna vs. Arcuri

    North Carolina 7 - McIntyre (D) beast the GOP over 2 to 1 in '08 - is now tied in the polls...


    Delaware - Mike Castle (R) won by 23 pts in '08, but he lost the Senate Republican primary. The Dems are leading the GOP by 15 pts in most recent poll...
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Delaware At-Large - Carney vs. Urquhart

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hmmm View Post
    Which polls have you based these on - is it likely voter polls?
    The national swing I'm taking from the daily RCP average, so it's probably a combination of Registered and Likely voters polls.

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    Politics.ie Member owedtojoy's Avatar
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    fivethirtyeight.com has teh GOP ahead 228 to 207, and I suspect it will end that way.

    GOP is closing on a Senate majority but is still at 52-48..

    Obama can be happy he achieved so much in his first eighteen months - the most active of any Presdent. He is clearly changing his staff to suit a new situation - a tactical battle against the GOP, with his re-election and a renewed Congressional majority as the goal.

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