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Thread: Next Election Betting thread

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    Default Next Election Betting thread

    Folks - Was wondering if any local Bookies had odds for constituencies up? Looking for a price for Sexton in Longford Westmeath and Labour Seats in Dublin.


    Last week the leading high street firms put up Election prices - One stand out price which is well gone now was 12/1 for 33+ Lady TD's in the next Dail? This was cleaned out after the Labour poll last week.

    What's the thinking on that one and also any thoughts to where the value might be? I'm actually warming to the 3/1 for a 2012 election at present.

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    Politics.ie Member sport02's Avatar
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    I doubt you will get odds, until the election is called, and we know all the candidates that are running, it would be a bit futile otherwise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sport02 View Post
    I doubt you will get odds, until the election is called, and we know all the candidates that are running, it would be a bit futile otherwise.
    Nah - some local bookmakers will give you odds. May not advertise it - but they will give you odds on what's in front of them

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    Women TDs bet:
    At the moment we have:
    7 FF (with Mary O'Rourke in her 70s)
    5 FG (with 2 leaving, Olwyn Enright for sure and Lucinda Creighton probably)
    7 Lab (with 2 leaving for sure)
    3 other gov (Mary White and Mary Harney, each probably unelectable nowadays, and Beverley Flynn, who deserves to be unelectable, but hey, it's the Wesht)
    1 other (Maureen O'Sullivan)

    I think we lose 0.5 from FF, 1.5 from FG, 2 from Lab and 2 from others. This is 6 losses from 23, for an expected value of 17. So the bet is 12/1 on there being more than 16 gains by women, minus one for every incumbent woman who loses and who isn't on that list.

    Say 32 male TDs lose their seats. 1 in 2 of the winners need to be women. I would buy 20/1 but not 12/1. Have Labour chosen their candidates yet? That would help clarify matters. This is basically a bet on how many women are selected by Labour and Fine Gael, with some volatility thrown in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Panopticon View Post
    Women TDs bet:
    At the moment we have:
    7 FF (with Mary O'Rourke in her 70s)
    5 FG (with 2 leaving, Olwyn Enright for sure and Lucinda Creighton probably)
    7 Lab (with 2 leaving for sure)
    3 other gov (Mary White and Mary Harney, each probably unelectable nowadays, and Beverley Flynn, who deserves to be unelectable, but hey, it's the Wesht)
    1 other (Maureen O'Sullivan)

    I think we lose 0.5 from FF, 1.5 from FG, 2 from Lab and 2 from others. This is 6 losses from 23, for an expected value of 17. So the bet is 12/1 on there being more than 16 gains by women, minus one for every incumbent woman who loses and who isn't on that list.

    Say 32 male TDs lose their seats. 1 in 2 of the winners need to be women. I would buy 20/1 but not 12/1. Have Labour chosen their candidates yet? That would help clarify matters. This is basically a bet on how many women are selected by Labour and Fine Gael, with some volatility thrown in.
    You probably have more value on the constituency markets when they become available tbh.

    Well read. Took 12's and know a few others did as well in the view of the Labour momentum.


    What's your view 2012

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iarmhi Gael View Post

    What's your view 2012
    2011 is a strong possibility, if they called an election (or if some of those useless gobs..t FF backbenchers, Independents or least likely of all the Greens got balls and forced the issue) before the end of October it could be done and dusted by the end of November, a new govenment with a mandate would calm the markets. Of course FF and the Greens know that they will be wiped out and are hanging on for as long as possible to line their pockets and up their pensions. Lots of lovely expenses to be claimed between now and the end of 2010. What a loathsome crowd they are.

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    The market that interests me is next Fine Gael leader.

    I reckon Richard Bruton is a false price at 10/11 with Paddy Power. That failed heave diminshed him, and so did the George Lee fiasco earlier in the year.

    But more generally, the momentum across the globe is towards younger and younger political leaders.

    It's so much easier to sell a message of change and renewal to an electorate if they haven't been looking at your face for 28 years (which is how long RB has been in the Dail).

    Obviously the longer Enda hangs on, the more likely that generational change becomes.

    Add in the crucial importance of recovering lost ground in Dublin, and I reckon Leo Varadkar at 7/1 and Brian Hayes at 12's are both good value propositions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iarmhi Gael View Post
    Folks - Was wondering if any local Bookies had odds for constituencies up?
    I ran a book through Betfair for the 2007 election. Betfair did a great job - they listed the main 6 or 7 candidates in each constituency and then had an "others" selection.

    Not sure if they will do it again because volumes were quite low for the work involved.

    Betfair have a market for next Irish General Election Year
    Betfair.com: Online Betting, Sports Betting, Horse Racing, Football | Bet Poker, Casino & Games
    I'm offering 3/1 on a 2012 election.

    more markets here
    Next General Election - Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power

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    BTW, check out this earlier betting thread.
    http://www.politics.ie/british-gener...n-betting.html

    Serious money made - based on our tips. Naomi Long tipped at 100/1 !

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    Quote Originally Posted by Craiced View Post
    I ran a book through Betfair for the 2007 election. Betfair did a great job - they listed the main 6 or 7 candidates in each constituency and then had an "others" selection.

    Not sure if they will do it again because volumes were quite low for the work involved.

    Betfair have a market for next Irish General Election Year
    Betfair.com: Online Betting, Sports Betting, Horse Racing, Football | Bet Poker, Casino & Games
    I'm offering 3/1 on a 2012 election.

    more markets here
    Next General Election - Irish Government Betting Odds - Paddy Power
    I'm sure they will closer to the time - Very little liquidity on BF if I remember right.

    Labrokes, Boyle & PP all released new election pricing for Ireland last week btw

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