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Thread: Sinn Fein seats at the next General Election

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    Politics.ie Member cogol's Avatar
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    Default Sinn Fein seats at the next General Election

    Let's talk realistically. Ó Snodaigh, Ferris, Ó Caoláin are safe. Can Sharkey take Arthur Morgans seat?
    What about Dessie Ellis in Dublin North-West? Obviously Mar Lou's chances are being discussed in another thread. What about Maurice Quinlivan in the newly formed Limerick City constituency?
    Sean Crowe and Eoin O'Broin are definitely putting good ground work in, but will it be enough to sway voters?

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    Politics.ie Member Glucose's Avatar
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    Quite possibly only 1(Cavan/Monaghan)

    I think we are heading into a 3 party race. The other smaller parties could get squeezed
    Beware of imposter Miss Piggy's on P.ie. There is only one Miss Piggy on P.ie. The others can FROG OFF.

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    Politics.ie Member cogol's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Glucose View Post
    Quite possibly only 1(Cavan/Monaghan)

    I think we are heading into a 3 party race. The other smaller parties could get squeezed
    I don't think Sinn Fein voters will buy into the whole 3 party race thing. I can't see someone in Ballyfermot saying 'Well, I normally vote Aengus, but I want Fianna Fail out, so Gay Mitchell is getting my vote this time'.

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    Politics.ie Member Kerrygold's Avatar
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    Ferris and Ó Snodaigh are far from safe. Fall into that trap and you'll soon regret it.

    I remember Sean Crowe being safe.

    I would say Cavan/Monaghan and Louth are safe.

    Martin and Aenghus will both be in a battle. Martin should pull through and I'm less sure about Aenghus.

    Pearse will win a seat in Donegal and Padraig should do it too.

    In Dublin things are harder to predict. The last general and local elections were disastrous there and its hard to see that being turned around in such a short period of time. Sean is in with a good chance and Mary Lou may surprise people. To her credit she has stuck with it and has been working very hard on the ground. Dessie Ellis is a great worker, but I think his time may have passed. I could be and hope I'm wrong. If there is a squeeze it will be most felt in Dublin, IMHO.

    Outside chance in Cork NC.

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    Politics.ie Member SinnShane's Avatar
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    Depends which poll you believe. In theory (given the 3% margin of error) SF could be on 1%, 13% or anywhere in between! Though the party's core vote (probably around 6-7%) would hopefully see us hold what we have and maybe gain in the Donegal’s and possibly one of the Dublin’s, a small groundswell to 10 or 11% could rake in 11 or 12 seats. You’re talking narrow margins and as the ice begins to break on Gutless Gilmore it is imperative that we're under it!

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    I'd say Sinn Fein have peaked in the South.

    They lack credibility on economic issues. Will be doing well to hold what they have.

    They need someone other than Adams for TV appearances and debates in the run-up to the General Election.

    Adams is brilliant when talking about the Peace Process but the only issue in the election will be the economy and he comes across even worse than Enda Kenny on that issue and that's saying something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cogol View Post
    Let's talk realistically. Ó Snodaigh, Ferris, Ó Caoláin are safe.
    There's an oxymoron straight away.

    Ó Snodaigh and Ferris and in serious trouble. In DSC, there will be a very fractured left vote and AOS barely made it the last time. SF could lose votes to both Labour and PBP, SF will be slugging it out for the last seat.

    Ferris (if he stands) is in equally big trouble. The impacts of the boundary changes and the Gilmore Gale are hard to predict here. There's a safe FG seat, but then it's any two from three from FF, Labour and SF. I'm not calling this until the candidates are known.

    The Louth seat is very shakey. There's a certain seat for FF and FG, then it's two from FG, FF, Labour and SF. I'd make SF's chances around 50%.

    Potential gains?
    Obviously two potential gains in Donegal, but again McDaid's intentions will be key. Dublin South West is a certain FF loss, but I think Labour are more likely to take two than SF to take one. I don't see a gain in DC for reasons I've stated on the constituency thread.

    After that it's hard to see anything. DNE and DNW were more winnable in 2007 than they are now and any Cork gains are likely to go to Labour.

    If I was to call a number right now, I'd go with 5.
    Last edited by Keith-M; 6th October 2010 at 02:25 PM.
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

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    Politics.ie Member cogol's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mary Frances View Post
    I'd say Sinn Fein have peaked in the South.

    They lack credibility on economic issues. Will be doing well to hold what they have.
    They only lack credibility if you're looking at it from a greedy profit driven capitalist pig point of view. oink oink

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    I actually think Ó Snodaigh will lose his seat.

    But SF should still come back with increased numbers. They should take a seat in both Donegal constituencies. And from the rest of the contenders (Dublin NW, Dublin SW, Cork NC, Meath W, Cavan-Monaghan 2nd) they should take one or two.
    Economic Left/Right: -2.88 (down 3.63 since the financial crash)
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18

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    Politics.ie Member QuizMaster's Avatar
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    5 sounds about right to me.
    They have 4 now.
    Snoddy out, A.N. Other out.
    2 Donegal gains, 1 other gain makes 5.

    One scenario is that they will be left with only border seats.
    If there is a future, it will be Green.

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