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Thread: Tipperary North

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    Politics.ie Member Marcos the black's Avatar
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    Default Tipperary North

    With the result of the latest opinion poll (TV3) I predict that Tipp North will be one of those seats that FG will lose to Lab. The way I see it is that Lowry will top the poll (Unfortunately), albeit with a reduced excess, Labour will run Alan Kelly and he will secure 2nd seat, leaving Maire Hoctor of FF and Noel Coonan of Fg battling for 3rd seat. I can't realistically see Tipp North with NO FF TD, it has never happened in the history of the state as far as I'm aware, so I predict the FF will hold the last seat, leaving FG out of the picture. What do you think?
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    Politics.ie Member jackryan's Avatar
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    I wonder will Smith Junior run? I also think if FF don't win in Tipp North then the election books will have to be rewritten. FG's Coonan isn't that strong Local Election had them 7% behind FF. As long as lowry is around some natural FG support will go to him!

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    Politics.ie Member Marcos the black's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackryan View Post
    I wonder will Smith Junior run? I also think if FF don't win in Tipp North then the election books will have to be rewritten. FG's Coonan isn't that strong Local Election had them 7% behind FF. As long as lowry is around some natural FG support will go to him!
    Can't see FF running 2. That surely would be crazy . Lowry can't really claim to be unofficial FG having supported FF in power. Don't think he'll get any "natural FG support" this time round!
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    Politics.ie Member jackryan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcos the black View Post
    Can't see FF running 2. That surely would be crazy . Lowry can't really claim to be unofficial FG having supported FF in power. Don't think he'll get any "natural FG support" this time round!
    They might run 2 especially to mark Coonan and as there is now some of offally in it Smith junior would be well placed! As regards Lowry He does get former FG supporters and he'll hold on to that (unfortunately) If he wasn't around they'd be FGers

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    Is Lowry a certainty to stand for election next time around? I thought it was quite well known that he was considering not running, and instead letting his son run in his place (who would not be as popular at all)?

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    Hoctor is inactive in Roscrea and the the part of Offaly annexed into North Tipp in 2007 - she has some support in parts of the Templemore area, and a bit in Thurles but support in her own Nenagh stomping ground collapsed in 2006 (her 2007 pool in Nenagh was very weak and she was only elected on Sen Kathleen O'Meara's transfers by less than 300 votes if I remember right). Her ineffective 21 months in the Dept of Health means she's damaged goods, she too nice to play dirty and with no one in Nenagh to transfer to her this time I can't see her being elected.
    With the Smiths, as much as I dislike their type of FF/storke mafioso politics, there's a chance for a FF seat. Their Roscrea/Templemore base is very strong, Michael Smith Jr. polled very strongly in 2009, with the addition of 100s of FF votes in the annexed area of Offaly, the usual smear campaign they run on their opponents, the distribution of whiskey, promises, claps on the back and the usual guff I'd say there's a chance better chance of a Smith in Leinster House again. If there's not a FF seat in North Tipp (and perhaps there might not be) I'll literally eat my hat!

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    Politics.ie Member rockofcashel's Avatar
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    well north tipp used to be one of the bell weather constituencies.. if FF won two, they were in Government, if they won one, they weren't.. so to imagine they would win none would be cataclysmic for them

    Every assumes Lowry will be fine, but the problem he has, is the part of Offaly that is brought into the area.. what connection does he have with them at all ? He'll really need to get a large fpv to stay ahead of others...

    Everyone looks at North Tipp through the prism of what is, and what has historically been in the constituency, but the main parties will look for someone from the new part of the constituency, and that may change things completely
    1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

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    How much of Offaly has been annexed? how many voters?

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    Politics.ie Member rockofcashel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by d7bohs View Post
    How much of Offaly has been annexed? how many voters?
    Not 100% sure, but I bet it was part of Enrights decision not to stand again as well.. she wouldn't have fancied trawling all over North Tipp, as her base was cut up in the change as well
    1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

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    Politics.ie Member Marcos the black's Avatar
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    Don't think that the inclusion of part of Offaly will impact on candidate selection. Coonan actually probably stands best placed to benefit from this in fact as his strongholds are Templemore/Roscrea. He has virtually no support in Thurles, which is the base for Lowry. It will be an interesting one, but I wouldn't be betting my house on the fact that for the first time ever FF may have no TD's in Tipp North.
    You'll never go broke appealing to the lowest common denominator.

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