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Thread: Opinion poll Donegal South-West

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    Politics.ie Member Darren J. Prior's Avatar
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    Default Opinion poll Donegal South-West

    I read today in a Donegal paper, I forget which though, that an opinion poll carried out in the constituency has Brian Ó Domhnaill taking the seat with Fine Gael's candidate coming in forth. Does anyone have any more knowledge about the results of this poll???
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    So you say there is a poll, but don't know its contents and don't have a link!

    Wow.

    BTW a tip - Constituency polls are totally discredited in Ireland. No one anywhere takes them seriously. Tons of them were done during the 2007 general election. They had a 98% inaccuracy rate. Some of them were so wrong as to be hilarious. One of the most notorious saw a poll for the Meath Chronicle predict FG would lose the Bruton seat in the by-election, one week before they easily won it. A poll in Dublin South predicted Alex White would win the seat. George Lee did in a landslide. A poll in Meath East in 2007 predicted Dominic Hannigan of Labour would top the poll. He didn't even win a seat. Six out of seven polls in the Cork and neighbouring constituencies were out by over 20%. The Galway polls were all wrong. A Dublin Central poll predicted in the by-election that Mary Lou and Patricia McKenna would battle for the seat and were "too close to call". McKenna in reality was crushed, and Mary Lou did poorly. Most comically, one poll said Eamon Gilmore was going to lose his seat in 2002.

    So at this stage no-one anywhere takes the slightest heed of constituency polls. They have an appalling record. They are good for a laugh. That is about all.
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    Politics.ie Member Darren J. Prior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommyO'Brien View Post
    So you say there is a poll, but don't know its contents and don't have a link!

    Wow.
    That's why I asked if anyone else had anymore knowledge. Pearse Doherty is second I think in it.
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    It was in Thursday's Democrat, and probably todays too. It has Doherty and O'Domhnaill kneck on kneck, with McBrearty third and O'Neill behind him. It was an internal Fine Gael poll.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TommyO'Brien View Post
    So you say there is a poll, but don't know its contents and don't have a link!

    Wow.

    BTW a tip - Constituency polls are totally discredited in Ireland. No one anywhere takes them seriously. Tons of them were done during the 2007 general election. They had a 98% inaccuracy rate. .....

    So at this stage no-one anywhere takes the slightest heed of constituency polls. They have an appalling record. They are good for a laugh. That is about all.
    Not a fan then, Tommy? 98% inaccuracy rate? I'd be interested in the source for that - or even what it would actually mean (perhaps we had different lecturuers in Mathematics and Statistical Analysis, but tht doesn't appear to have any meaning to me.....!) Are you saying that only 2% of the polls were within the margin of error for every candidate? Because most polls would have an outlier or two anyway, whether national or local.

    Interestingly this was leaked by one of your colleagues in FG (it's been suggested Frank Flannery elsewhere), so I'd not be playing the conspiracy theory on this too much.

    As it happens, yes, many constituency polls are dubious, particularly when run by a party, but this was run by the party (FG) who are most damaged by it, and so that makes it a bit more credible.

    My analysis on this poll, for what it's worth, is at
    Fine Gael poll in Donegal SW Irish Polling Report
    Basically, if true, FG coming 4th would obviously put them out of the running, and LP's strong showing would put them in with a strong shout of getting elected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SFInbhear View Post
    It was in Thursday's Democrat, and probably todays too. It has Doherty and O'Domhnaill kneck on kneck, with McBrearty third and O'Neill behind him. It was an internal Fine Gael poll.
    needless to say, if anyone hears the percentages, we'd love to know.......... (I'll bet even Tommy would read and do the sums...!)

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    Quote Originally Posted by dotski_w_ View Post
    Not a fan then, Tommy? 98% inaccuracy rate? I'd be interested in the source for that - or even what it would actually mean (perhaps we had different lecturuers in Mathematics and Statistical Analysis, but tht doesn't appear to have any meaning to me.....!) Are you saying that only 2% of the polls were within the margin of error for every candidate? Because most polls would have an outlier or two anyway, whether national or local.

    Interestingly this was leaked by one of your colleagues in FG (it's been suggested Frank Flannery elsewhere), so I'd not be playing the conspiracy theory on this too much.

    As it happens, yes, many constituency polls are dubious, particularly when run by a party, but this was run by the party (FG) who are most damaged by it, and so that makes it a bit more credible.

    My analysis on this poll, for what it's worth, is at
    Fine Gael poll in Donegal SW Irish Polling Report
    Basically, if true, FG coming 4th would obviously put them out of the running, and LP's strong showing would put them in with a strong shout of getting elected.
    To my knowledge, the poll was leaked by a Fine Gael member in the Donegal SW area. The paper contacted a Fine Gael supporter who confirmed the poll's findings.

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    Been doing some asking around ... and there are a number of rumours doing the rounds in S. Donegal

    One is that this "poll" story is a complete fabrication. The Donegal Democrat don't seem to be able to substantiate it with hard evidence.

    A second is that national and/or local anti-Kenny dissidents fabricated it and spun it to the media it in order to embarrass him prior to his visit to the constituency this weekend. The Democrat today seemed to insinuate that his visit was some sort of fire brigade measure which wasn't the case given that it was for pre-planned by-election event in Donegal town!

    Yet another rumour is that some local wag spun it as a wind-up to the journalist concerned and he rain with it (lol !).... which if true, is poor show on the part of what is generally regarded as a reputable regional newspaper.

    As for O Neill's standing ... he's very well regarded in FG and in the county. He will gain a huge young vote as a consequence of his involvement in sports media, the international Rory Gallagher Festival and other local organisations. He has also been to the fore in the attempts to save cancer services in Sligo. He has recently secured guarantees with regard to the future of the Rock Home in Ballyshannon.

    O Domhnail and Doherty are also well regarded but don't have a strong enough base in larger population centres such as Donegal town, Ballyshannon, Bundoran.
    (O Neill drew huge cross party support in these areas in the last local election..) Their (O Domhnail/Doherty) support base is predominantly rural and the cohort of voting age (based on the 2006 census) doesn't stack up against the big three southern towns. (and their voting inhabitants will vote for the local man regardless of party politics .... they'd be fools not to given the inaction of the present FF incumbent on various issues!)

    In addition, the O Domhnail / Doherty vote will be split by virtue of the fact that they come from same general area of the constituency and it is therefore true to say that they are "neck and neck" in this sense. Killybegs is more difficult to guage. McBrearty will probably draw support from Finn Valley (Ballybofey/Stranorlar) but so too will O Neill. People in this area tend to vote FG based on Dinny McGinleys's performance here.

    I could be wrong, but my money is on the increasing likelihood that this "poll" was complete fabrication and therefore a non story. However ... the results of an independent poll carried out by one of the reputable pollster organisations such as MRBI or Red Sea would be interesting!

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    Politics.ie Member ne0ica's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Follower View Post
    Been doing some asking around ... and there are a number of rumours doing the rounds in S. Donegal

    One is that this "poll" story is a complete fabrication. The Donegal Democrat don't seem to be able to substantiate it with hard evidence.

    A second is that national and/or local anti-Kenny dissidents fabricated it and spun it to the media it in order to embarrass him prior to his visit to the constituency this weekend. The Democrat today seemed to insinuate that his visit was some sort of fire brigade measure which wasn't the case given that it was for pre-planned by-election event in Donegal town!

    Yet another rumour is that some local wag spun it as a wind-up to the journalist concerned and he rain with it (lol !).... which if true, is poor show on the part of what is generally regarded as a reputable regional newspaper.

    As for O Neill's standing ... he's very well regarded in FG and in the county. He will gain a huge young vote as a consequence of his involvement in sports media, the international Rory Gallagher Festival and other local organisations. He has also been to the fore in the attempts to save cancer services in Sligo. He has recently secured guarantees with regard to the future of the Rock Home in Ballyshannon.

    O Domhnail and Doherty are also well regarded but don't have a strong enough base in larger population centres such as Donegal town, Ballyshannon, Bundoran.
    (O Neill drew huge cross party support in these areas in the last local election..) Their (O Domhnail/Doherty) support base is predominantly rural and the cohort of voting age (based on the 2006 census) doesn't stack up against the big three southern towns. (and their voting inhabitants will vote for the local man regardless of party politics .... they'd be fools not to given the inaction of the present FF incumbent on various issues!)

    In addition, the O Domhnail / Doherty vote will be split by virtue of the fact that they come from same general area of the constituency and it is therefore true to say that they are "neck and neck" in this sense. Killybegs is more difficult to guage. McBrearty will probably draw support from Finn Valley (Ballybofey/Stranorlar) but so too will O Neill. People in this area tend to vote FG based on Dinny McGinleys's performance here.

    I could be wrong, but my money is on the increasing likelihood that this "poll" was complete fabrication and therefore a non story. However ... the results of an independent poll carried out by one of the reputable pollster organisations such as MRBI or Red Sea would be interesting!
    People have told me from Donegal South that their money is on Pearse winning it. But as talented as Doherty is, I'm not sure if this is just another case of the SF vote being overestimated. It would be interesting to see how Raphoe man McBearty does given his high media profile.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ne0ica View Post
    People have told me from Donegal South that their money is on Pearse winning it. But as talented as Doherty is, I'm not sure if this is just another case of the SF vote being overestimated. It would be interesting to see how Raphoe man McBearty does given his high media profile.
    Indeed he is talented however he has a tendency to create issues where there are none in order to garner support/publicity (a common SF tactic). For example the recent rhetoric and subsequent protests over suspected closure of letterkenny hospital was based on very thin evidence. Given the hospital's huge catchment area closure is doubtful although rationalisation of services is probably inevitable. SF lack any coherent or strategic economic policy and in the current economic climate voters will tend to lean towards main stream parties given current levels of uncertainty. In addition, it is unlikely that SF will form any part of a coalition in the next government and once again local voters in a by election situation will vote for the party who they think will be in power in the hope that representation on the government side will bring some benefits for the constituency.

    As for McBrearty, he had national profile during Morris and Labour are presently riding high, however, as a local politician he has not been very vocal and lacks significant clout. Furthermore, Donegal has traditionally not given labour much support.

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