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Thread: Range of seats in next GE

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    Politics.ie Member Socratus O' Pericles's Avatar
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    Default Range of seats in next GE

    Ceann Conmhairle 1

    Independents 3 (ish)

    SP 1 (ish)

    Greens 1 (ish)

    SF 10(ish)

    Lab 45 (ish)

    FG 65(ish)

    FF 40 (ish)

    I would say an outcome in or around this should be about evens.

  2. #2
    RepublicanSocialist1798
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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    Ceann Conmhairle 1

    Independents 3 (ish)

    SP 1 (ish)

    Greens 1 (ish)

    SF 10(ish)

    Lab 45 (ish)

    FG 65(ish)

    FF 40 (ish)

    I would say an outcome in or around this should be about evens.
    There'll be more independents I reckon. Lowry is definitely safe as cards and Luke "Ming" Flanagan and Catherine Murphy will easily get seats. Healy-Rae, O'Sullivan and Finian McGrath have fairly reasonable chances for retaining their seats.
    It's the right figure for Labour. I can't see FG getting above 60 and FF getting 40 would definitely be the extreme worse case scenario.

  3. #3

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    If it did turn out like that :

    FG+LAB (110) probably biggest coalition majority ever ?

    FF+LAB (85) only a +2 majority - very shaky.
    Redacted.

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    This in an interesting one. From my looking, maybe you should be treating the PBP as a party seperate from the indos. I thing they in serious contention for 2 seats, just as many as the SP and prob the greens.

    The SF one is also interesting. You'd assume that in rural areas and near the border, they are the natural home for large swathes of former FF voters. On the other hand, all their urban support could be under major attack From Labour. Have a look at what happened to DL in the Spring Tide as an example.

    You must be looking at FF getting wiped out in Dublin, and I presume also Cork, Limerick galway and Waterford to get that figure. Just wondering how you figured it.

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    Politics.ie Member Socratus O' Pericles's Avatar
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    I don't think people realise how much FFare hated.Everybody I know (even former FF supporters) really has the boot in to them now.

    I feel there will be a serious amount of retirments of senior figures before the inevitable pogrom and new FFwill have slim chances.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EvotingMachine0197 View Post

    FF+LAB (85) only a +2 majority - very shaky.

    +2 majority is probably the least shaky thing about that coalition!

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by wickalah View Post
    +2 majority is probably the least shaky thing about that coalition!
    Indeed. It's never going to happen anyway...
    Redacted.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    Ceann Conmhairle 1

    Independents 3 (ish) - More, perhaps as many as ten, but 6ish is more likely.

    SP 1 (ish) - Yep a minimum of 1, max is 3.

    Greens 1 (ish) - Somewhere between 0 and 2, so 1ish is good.

    SF 10(ish) - Too high. 7ish is more likely.

    Lab 45 (ish) - Hard to call, somewhere between 35 and 50. I'd call it 45ish on current polls.

    FG 65(ish) - 60ish. There are not that many potential gains and in most of them Labour are also in with a shout.

    FF 40 (ish) - More like 50ish right now. Likely to increase as the election nears.

    I would say an outcome in or around this should be about evens.
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

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    Politics.ie Member Socratus O' Pericles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RepublicanSocialist1798 View Post
    There'll be more independents I reckon. Lowry is definitely safe as cards and Luke "Ming" Flanagan and Catherine Murphy will easily get seats. Healy-Rae, O'Sullivan and Finian McGrath have fairly reasonable chances for retaining their seats.
    It's the right figure for Labour. I can't see FG getting above 60 and FF getting 40 would definitely be the extreme worse case scenario.
    Mary Hanafin ,Barry Andrews, Conor Lenihan , Charlie O'Connor, Sean Ardagh ,Michael Mulcahy,Darragh O Brien to lose seats and that may not be all FF support to be less than 12% in the capital.

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    Politics.ie Member adamirer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    Mary Hanafin ,Barry Andrews, Conor Lenihan , Charlie O'Connor, Sean Ardagh ,Michael Mulcahy,Darragh O Brien to lose seats and that may not be all FF support to be less than 12% in the capital.
    Every Dublin constituency will return one FF. Just a matter of who holds on and who goes.

    FF 50-55 (more towards 55)
    FG 60-65 (more towards 65)
    Lab 30-35 (I don't see them doubling their representation, a very distant 3rd in most rural areas)
    SF 5-7 (Donegal offset by possible loses in DSC and KN)
    Green 1-3 (Sargent is the only safe one)
    Soc: 1 - Joe Higgins only.
    PBP: 0/1 (1 being DSC if and only if she's ahead of O'Snodaigh)
    Ind 5-10
    Last edited by adamirer; 18th September 2010 at 02:02 PM.

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