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Thread: Will Fine Gael have the Stomach to default on Ireland's debts?

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    Default Will Fine Gael have the Stomach to default on Ireland's debts?

    That Ireland will default at some stage is hardly in doubt save for the wishful thinking of deluded FF'ers. But because the NTMA have already started on 2011, it probably will not happen until the Autumn, by which time the 3 by-elections will have been held, FG will require their TDs to be actually present for votes and stop the informal pairing with Bertie and other FF TDs, and perhaps the grim reaper may also intervened by then - not that I wish this on anyone.

    The manner, timing and target of the default could be vital. If we wait to the bitter end, having flogged the semi-states for a song, we will be consigned to economic stagnation for a decade. Also because no one lend to us, we will need to have something resembling a credible plan to get to a balanced budget (a poxy 3 billion euro cut is simply off-set by higher costs of servicing the national debt).

    But my question is whether Fine Gael would have the stomach to undertake a clinical default or will they just sit it out to the end?
    Would dishonouring debts - particularly ECB ones - be too much for Fine Gael?
    Will they too adopt the FF policy of no bondholder left behind?
    How will they do the above with Labour in power with them?

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    Can we really afford to pay the bondholders? FG will inevitably have to take tougher decisions than the yellow skinned FF elite. The night of the guarantee Cowen and Lenihan opted for the big brush that was just another means of kicking the can down the road. Desperately trying to avoid real governance and decisions that would upset some of the elite and vested interests that helped pump the delusion of the celtic tiger years the blanket guarantee was hit and hope that the markets would be satiated. Whatever combination of parties gets in some real dirty choices will have to be made and some incubated sectors will have to feel the chill wind that 450,000 others have felt. Lenihan soothing voice hides a man whose goal is to mask national interest with party interest while Cowen just wants the most honourable way out. Unfortunately Cowen doesn't realise that his party has no honour, no integrity and no mandate anymore...

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    No. FG have balls for anything? You're having a giraffe!
    Happiness is a dry martini and a good woman … or a bad woman.
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    Fine Gael would sacrifice their first born for the sake of Europe, the EU and the Euro. Most of our debt is from the Eurozone, so there is more of a chance of Wayne Rooney winning Husband of the Year award as Fine Gael defaulting on our debt.
    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” - Friedrich A. Hayek

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    Incoming governments cannot unravel decisions made that easily and contracts entered into. Remember the despicable Haughey on the Anglo Irish Agreement of 1985- he opposed it in opposion and worked it in gov after 1987. You cannot unscramble an egg.

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    Lets be real.
    FF are pushing the day of reckoning out to beyond their departure.
    FG/Lab are not going to have any other choice that I can see
    The money isn't and won't be there to service the debt.
    Its only a chat, we ain't the world council.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomas Mor View Post
    Incoming governments cannot unravel decisions made that easily and contracts entered into. Remember the despicable Haughey on the Anglo Irish Agreement of 1985- he opposed it in opposion and worked it in gov after 1987. You cannot unscramble an egg.
    That is a cop out. These decisions were passed by the dail and can be unwound by the dail. The time has come to unwind the mess FF have made in Anglo. They start by moving the Anglo customer deposits to guaranteed Banks backed by performing loans, property assets and NAMA bonds.

    The corporate deposits lodged before the guarantee should be heavily discounted at say 10c in the Euro and the ECB and Central Bank deposits should be treated exactly the same as bondholders and should have to make the most of what is left.

    The majority of money in Anglo is ECB and Central Bank money put in after the guarantee. This money was put in when it was obvious that the Bank was run by a bunch of cowboy Bankers, possibly in a criminal manner.

    FG are going to have to do something they have not had the opportunity to do for almost 100 years, stand up for their country and boot out FF politicians and cronies from all state and semi state positions once and for all.

    They will get one opportunity and it is vital that they take it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cassandra Syndrome View Post
    Fine Gael would sacrifice their first born for the sake of Europe, the EU and the Euro. Most of our debt is from the Eurozone, so there is more of a chance of Wayne Rooney winning Husband of the Year award as Fine Gael defaulting on our debt.
    Fine Gael have not been in power much during my lifetime (or most peoples), but should we not give them the benefit of the doubt,
    that they will go for an orderly default on the debts aquired by reason of the banks,
    that like the 4 year plan, they will not be bound by decision of this governement,
    that they will in fact put in place political reforms to ensure that this can never happend again (ie smaller Dail, elected by one constituency, more accounatbility of civil servants and politicians, mandatory balanced budgets etc).

    They will default early - won't they?

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    Make Defaulting on the Debt an election issue. Get Gilmore Kenny and Cowan to stand up.
    and declare where they stand.

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