That Ireland will default at some stage is hardly in doubt save for the wishful thinking of deluded FF'ers. But because the NTMA have already started on 2011, it probably will not happen until the Autumn, by which time the 3 by-elections will have been held, FG will require their TDs to be actually present for votes and stop the informal pairing with Bertie and other FF TDs, and perhaps the grim reaper may also intervened by then - not that I wish this on anyone.
The manner, timing and target of the default could be vital. If we wait to the bitter end, having flogged the semi-states for a song, we will be consigned to economic stagnation for a decade. Also because no one lend to us, we will need to have something resembling a credible plan to get to a balanced budget (a poxy 3 billion euro cut is simply off-set by higher costs of servicing the national debt).
But my question is whether Fine Gael would have the stomach to undertake a clinical default or will they just sit it out to the end?
Would dishonouring debts - particularly ECB ones - be too much for Fine Gael?
Will they too adopt the FF policy of no bondholder left behind?
How will they do the above with Labour in power with them?