The original theory was a good one. Sit tight to 2012 and hope the economy has improved.
As is obvious to all but the feebleminded optimists, the economy is going to be in an even worse state by then.
- current debt is 85bn, the annual deficit is 20bn and the banks will cost about 90bn.
- as a result we are likely to default. - that means only the IMF or ECB will lend to us.
-That means Croke Park agreement will have to broken leaving 300,000 Voters angry.
- social welfare will have to be cut with workfare along side it, leaving 1m people very angry.
- small schools and hospitals will close.
Ie there is no water for the parish pump = end of Fianna Fail.
The next opportunity to dump Biffo.
-The September think-in. The next poll results will be out.
- install Lenihan as leader for the election. It could save 10-15 seats.
- FF has got the credit for making the tough decisions when they have not yet been taken. - it suited the international markets to have a poster boy for austerity and economic cold showers.
- now let Fine Gael take the really tough decisions ie health cuts, end universal child benefit, close schools, sell off the semi-states, default on the Banking obligations.
Advantages for FF
- it gets out before default.
- it can claim it was a better economic manager.
- the party will fall below 60 seats but will not fall below 40.leaving it in a position to come back after the 2014 local elections just in time for the 1916 Party.
- it is out of power for at least 18 months until FG and Labours fall out.