Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 74 123451151 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 735

Thread: Dublin Sth Central predictions.

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    388
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Dublin Sth Central predictions.

    Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    4,609
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    2 labour certain here. Possibly 3 if they get it right. You'd really need to push 40% to get 3. At the LEs labour had about 35%.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member RightCentreLeft's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Dublin South Central
    Posts
    929
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by codology View Post
    Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.
    I predict:

    M. Upton,C. Byrne, M. Mulcahy, A. O'Snodaigh, Eric Byrne - in no particular order

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    388
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Red_93 View Post
    2 labour certain here. Possibly 3 if they get it right. You'd really need to push 40% to get 3. At the LEs labour had about 35%.
    You would imagine that with its locals vote and with doig well nationally that 3 is possible but in DSC the 3 candidates come from 3 different parties and so do many of their workers ie Upton traditional Labour,Byrne DL/WP and Conaghan is from the DSP,this means that transfer deals and cooperation between the 3 won't be great although Upton and Conaghan would be close.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    4,609
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by codology View Post
    You would imagine that with its locals vote and with doig well nationally that 3 is possible but in DSC the 3 candidates come from 3 different parties and so do many of their workers ie Upton traditional Labour,Byrne DL/WP and Conaghan is from the DSP,this means that transfer deals and cooperation between the 3 won't be great although Upton and Conaghan would be close.
    Don't know much about the organisation of the LP in DSC, but in most constituencies, those divisions have long been filled in and it's generally only outsiders who make the distinction between sticks and old labour. Also, if labour were serious about 3 there, none of them would be allowed to have a surplus - the only one with the ability to do that is Upton but it's in labour's interest to keep her below the quota due to her transfer friendliness. Also, if any do have a surplus there's no guarantee it'll come back in transfers - much of this will be very soft.

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    46,516
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by codology View Post
    Possibly the hardest constituency in the country to call with probably 9 in the running for 5 seats.FF currently hold 2 but wont get 2 next time Michael Mulcahy will stand but it appears that Sean Ardagh is too ill to stand so it couldbe one of his many relation who will stand.FG have Catherine Byrne who backed Enda to the hilt and her reward will probably be a free run in the GE.Current sitting TD Aengus o Snodaigh SF looked to be in difficulty after the locals but the decision of PBP to run Joan Collins instead of Ballyfermot based Brid Smith will be a big help to SF.Labour have 3 candidates Mary Upton who is probably the safest and Eric Byrne and Michael Conaghan.The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.In the locals PBP picked up close to 6000 votes in DSC if they can retain 80% of these they will be there till the death.
    FG will be running a second candidate - probably down the Terenure/Walkinstown end.
    "So how are things at the Campaign for the Freedom of Information, by the way?" "Sorry, I can't talk about that"

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    4,609
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster View Post
    FG will be running a second candidate - probably down the Terenure/Walkinstown end.
    Gay Mitchell coming home? Of course, the danger there would be that he would take Byrne's seat.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member Upper Chamber's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Living amongst the common people, 'The soil, the soil!'
    Posts
    586
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster View Post
    FG will be running a second candidate - probably down the Terenure/Walkinstown end.
    Very interesting constituency Upton and C. Byrne safe, Byrne and Conaghan in with a chance each but the later can be a bit of a loose canon. SF weak, very hard to call what PBP will manage. They are essentially a protest party and it depends on whether people will get behind them or alternative gov. parties.
    Ardagh is ill but will no doubt try and push one of his less than inspiring brood in. Might even be Catherine if she can remember where the constituency is. Mulcahy has a decent enough profile and a chance of retaining his seat. Eamonn Walsh (SDCC) might be run to pull in votes from the south of the constituency where he is building a presence, his oppostition in FG Colm Brophy likely to be the second FG candidate gets votes in much the same area.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    6,270
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by codology View Post
    The decision of PBP to run Joan Collins wont help Eric Byrne as they are strong in the same areas,Conaghan actually has a very good chance and probably will get more first prefs than Eric.Two other factors here will be if FG run a second candidate or if someone runs as a hospital candidate.
    Eric Byrne pulled in over 3600 votes in the locals while Michael C was on 2300. Most of the latters vote base is very local.
    FG are very weak locally since Mitchell moved on and unless he changes his mind they will need to find a new name candidate.
    Will be not surprised if Brid Smith also runs.

  10. #10

    Default

    2 Labour, 1 FF 1FG 1 PBP.

Page 1 of 74 123451151 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •