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Thread: Meath West General Election

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    Politics.ie Member topcat4's Avatar
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    Default Meath West General Election

    Can Fianna Fail hold two seats in Meath West. If they can't who is a position to win.
    In my opinion FG can't take two seats here, Damian English will probably top the poll, but would not be capable of bringing in a second.
    From what I believe Labour have approached Navan Councillor Anton McCabe to run, Anton is a good councillor, but would not be at the races in a General Election.
    Sinn Fein are running Peadar Tobin who should poll really well, but with Sinn Fein not doing well nationally, a seat first time out may be beyond him.
    With no Independents to talk of, is it possible even with Fianna Fail dying on current opinion polls that they might retain two seats in Meath West.

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    Quote Originally Posted by topcat4 View Post
    Can Fianna Fail hold two seats in Meath West. If they can't who is a position to win.
    In my opinion FG can't take two seats here, Damian English will probably top the poll, but would not be capable of bringing in a second.
    From what I believe Labour have approached Navan Councillor Anton McCabe to run, Anton is a good councillor, but would not be at the races in a General Election.
    Sinn Fein are running Peadar Tobin who should poll really well, but with Sinn Fein not doing well nationally, a seat first time out may be beyond him.
    With no Independents to talk of, is it possible even with Fianna Fail dying on current opinion polls that they might retain two seats in Meath West.
    Labour might get a seat here on current polls and if they do well on transfers. SF didnt have a good local election in Meath and a seat might be out of reach now. It'll be either Labour or 2FG.

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    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by topcat4 View Post
    Can Fianna Fail hold two seats in Meath West. If they can't who is a position to win.
    In my opinion FG can't take two seats here, Damian English will probably top the poll, but would not be capable of bringing in a second.
    From what I believe Labour have approached Navan Councillor Anton McCabe to run, Anton is a good councillor, but would not be at the races in a General Election.
    Sinn Fein are running Peadar Tobin who should poll really well, but with Sinn Fein not doing well nationally, a seat first time out may be beyond him.
    With no Independents to talk of, is it possible even with Fianna Fail dying on current opinion polls that they might retain two seats in Meath West.
    Would Tracy MacElhinny or Jenny McHugh not be better on the LP ticket. I don't see a labour seat there but they'd give it a decent shot.

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    It's a strange constituency.

    FF look certain to lose a seat, but it's hard to see who will pick it up.

    FG are a long way short are 2 quotas as are SF a good distance off 1, while Labour weren't at all credible last time out.

    Some thoughts though...

    Johnny Brady looks the more likely to lose. That would open up Kells for an opposition candidate. But who could that be. Only FF and FG have councillors in Kells. One of FG's councillors is former TD John Farrelly. He didn't run last time out. Could he be interested again? He's still not all that old - younger than both sitting FF TDs. Interesting to note that there were 2 Kells-based TDs not so long ago.

    Between SF, Lab and the Greens, the broad left was on 17% last time. With a likely swing to Labour could transfers bring in a left candidate? Seeing that SF are likely to do better than Lab here, what proportion of Lab transfers will go to FG and what proportion to SF?
    Economic Left/Right: -2.88 (down 3.63 since the financial crash)
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18

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    Default Sarah Carey is most likely to top the poll

    Sarah Carey will top the poll. Sarah is Daughter of outgoing County Council Cathairleach Cllr Bill Carey. The Same Sarah that writes for the Irish Times.

    Sarah has done a lot to raise her profile recently with a lot of TV appearances
    She is about the best prospect for a Ministry in Meath in a Fine Gael Coalition Government.

    Damien English burned a lot of bridges with his attack on Kenny.

    English would be in the running to take a second seat for Fine Gael.

    No hope of a Ministry for McEntee in Meath East unless he secures a second seat which is a longer prospect than in Meath West.

    There is at least 5% in running the only female candidate

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    Politics.ie Member Darren J. Prior's Avatar
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    But Sarah Carey is not a candidate, is she???
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    Default Can you name a better candidate for Meath West?

    Quote Originally Posted by Darren J. Prior View Post
    But Sarah Carey is not a candidate, is she???
    Can you name a better candidate for Meath West?

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    I heard recently that if the poll taken in June was applied to Meath that it would mean that

    FF would have 33%
    FG would have 34%
    SF would have 17%
    Lab would have 11%
    Greens would have 2%
    Independents would have 3%

    These figures are only the estimation of an achademic however they do put SF in reach of a seat. Also it has been said Tóibín has been most vocal in the county in recent months with regards Dempsey spending the Do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tommythecommy View Post
    Can you name a better candidate for Meath West?
    Is that tongue in cheek?

    I could think of about 50,000 better ones. Pretty much anyone on the electoral register. Jesus! Fine Gael must be in big trouble if they would stoop to pick a fool like her.

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    Default FG have not selected their ticket yet for Meath West

    Quote Originally Posted by Oldira1 View Post
    Is that tongue in cheek?

    I could think of about 50,000 better ones. Pretty much anyone on the electoral register. Jesus! Fine Gael must be in big trouble if they would stoop to pick a fool like her.
    FG have not selected their ticket yet for Meath West

    One of the 2 Fine Gael Candidates will likely be a Woman and English is sure to be on the ticket also. Rumor is that Cllr Catherine Yore is not seeking a nomination. Cllr Ray Butler in Trim has declared his intention to seek a nomination.

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