Studying the form on this race, seems very tight indeed. Tom Perriello, the incumbent Democrat won the seat with 50.1% of the vote in '08, taking the seat from Republican Virgil Goode, by a margin of less than 800 votes. In the current anti-incumbent climate and with Democrat loses expected, one of have to think him a goner. Especially since he seems to be a bit of a prat:
Fact Check: Perriello's new attack ad in 5th District race | WSLS 10
However, according to the Washington Post, his warchest is multiple times that of his challenger Rob Hurt, standing at 1.7m compared to Hurt's 215k.
Perriello also recently sought a three way television debate, as opposed to a head-to-head debate favoured by Hurt's camp (who ultimately got their way), which suggest weakness to me.
As with all politics, this race is local and having never set foot in Virginia, I'd be especially interested in what our American posters think.