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Thread: Double- dip recession

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member richie268's Avatar
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    Default Double- dip recession

    Although America can print money like Ireland grows grass Greenspan is nervous about a
    double dipper hitting the states.

    Amid worries about a slowdown in economic recovery, Mr Greenspan said: "We're in a pause in a recovery, a modest recovery but a pause in the modest recovery feels like a quasi-recession."
    Questioned on NBC's Meet the Press programme about whether the US could slide into another recession he said: "It is possible if home prices go down. Home prices, as best we can judge, have really flattened out in the last year.

    Alan Greenspan warns that US could be heading for double-dip recession - Telegraph

    For Ireland a doubledipper is inevitable as cut backs alone are often responsible and we cant print money.
    For Ireland a triple-dipper?

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    Politics.ie Member  Donnchadha's Avatar
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    The numbers don't look good here in the US. The unemployment rate is hovering over 9%. here in the US that is bad. A normal rate should be around 5%.

    Corporate America and the Banks are holding on to Trillions of dollars. Companies won't spend, and banks won't lend, if they feel uncertainty. With Barak Obama they feel uncertain.

    But as far as Alan Greenspan, I was just listening to a well known finanacial expert, and he stated, that he was frankly sick of liestening to Alan Greenspan. He still wants the spotlight.

    Greenspan is no longer in charge of the Fed. He should mind his manners.

    The good news is that we are not in an inflationary or deflationary cycle.

    Printing money would be the wrong thing to do. Keynsian economics is and obsolete set of economic theories. Printing money would push uis into inflationary cycle.
    Last edited by Donnchadha; 2nd August 2010 at 04:43 AM.

  3. #3

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    We're ******************************ed.
    The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design. - Friedrich A. Hayek

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    Politics.ie Member Magror14's Avatar
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    Greenspan published a 550 page tome in 2007 called the Age of Turbulence and did not manage to even hint at the soon to happen economic meltdown. I have severe reservations about anything he says.

    The one good thing you can say about the Irish depression is that it is largely focussed on the construction sector. The upside of the property crash is that it will allow us to regain some of our competitiveness.

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    I see a sluggish recovery but no double dip.

    Cheers,

    Harry

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    Quote Originally Posted by Harry700 View Post
    I see a sluggish recovery but no double dip.

    Cheers,

    Harry

    WAKE UP HARRY.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member LeDroit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magror14 View Post
    The one good thing you can say about the Irish depression is that it is largely focussed on the construction sector. The upside of the property crash is that it will allow us to regain some of our competitiveness.
    Totally wrong. The recession started in construction due to the credit crunch and the banking crisis but our unemployment going from 4% to 14% has affected all sectors and demand in everything from retail to professional services has collapsed. I'm in regular contact with a range of businessmen working in diverse fields and the best that people are seeing is a 20% reduction in demand and the worst is around 80%. That's for the guys still in business. Three companies a day are closing or going bust in Ireland. Those companies are in every field.

    Though I mentioned a 14% unemployment rate, the truth is nearer to 20%. Self employed people are not in the figures, nor are those on 'training' courses in Fas. In addition there are an enormous amount of people on disability benefit with dodgy medical certs so they can get some benefits.

    On the question of whether we will have a double dip recession, i have something to say. We are not out of recession. GDP is used as the measure but this includes the FDI crowd. If you use GNP, ie Irish companies goods and services produced, we are still receding by about 0.2% in the last quarter. The GDP myth is hiding the figures. Much was made of a positive sales growth number last quarter. If you take carsales out, sales shrank by 2% in the last quarter. We are still in recession.

    The US is more likely to hit a double dipper as they are in a false position at the moment on the back of the stimulus plan. It's coming to an end now, there won't be another one, and it didn't work. If demand and confidence fall in the US coming into the all important Thanksgiving and Christmas sales periods then they could definitely drop back into recession in the first quarter of 2011. Also, God forbid, but if Al Qaeda produce a spectacular on the homeland in the last quarter of this year, people will stay at home and those holiday sales figures will collapse.
    "A govt big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have" Thomas Jefferson

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    Politics.ie Member Magror14's Avatar
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    OK I used my language badly. What I should have said was that the most acute aspect of the Irish depression is the construction sector. The sharp rise in unemployment came from construction drying up. This affected many professionals (solicitors architects) and other sectors more indirectly. The other aspects of our economy could recover. Foreign export firms and the food industry. Also we can generate real money from renewables. Yeah sure, we will not be rich but we can regroup our economy around a more diverse and resilient core of key sectors. The lesson we have just learned should also stand to us in the long term.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member Magror14's Avatar
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    Also I am not wrong that the explosion in property prices was one of the main drivers in wage costs and the resulting loss in competitiveness.

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    Why Mary ??

    Quote Originally Posted by mary hinge View Post
    WAKE UP HARRY.

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