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Thread: Dublin Mid West predictions

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    Default Dublin Mid West predictions

    Can't find an existing thread on the next election for DMW and wondered how people were calling it.

    Labour are guaranteed to hold their seat, but are the other three up for grabs? Even if FF are down to 20 per cent in Dublin they should be okay for one. Gogarty may be gone. Harney refused recently to say she definitely wouldn't be running. FG have to take a seat here but will Fitzgerald be the only candidate? Might Keating run as well?

    So, that would be one Labour, one FG, one FF and the fourth a fight between a second Labour candidate, possible second FG candidate, Sinn Féin, PBP?

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    I do hope Gogarty loses his seat. He is a total plonker.

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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Senator Frances Fitzgerald and Derek Keating have been selected to run. I think both will poll very strongly and Keating should take a seat with Fitzgerald likely to take a second.

    Labour will also poll strongly, somewhere in the high 20s. However they'll fall short of a second seat and their transfers should help the second FG candidate.

    FF should hold their seat but Gogarty will lose out.

    2 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab.

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    FG took 4480 votes (12%) in the 07 general election.

    FG took 8753 votes between 4 candidates across Lucan and Clondalkin wards in the 09 local elections.

    With a quota likley to be short of 8000 it is hard to see FG doubling their vote within the next 12 months.

    Both Keating and Fitzgerald will be competing for votes from the Lucan end of the constituency.

    07 showed transfers favour Labour rather than FG.

    A second FG seat seems highly unlikly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Left Republican View Post
    FG took 4480 votes (12%) in the 07 general election.

    FG took 8753 votes between 4 candidates across Lucan and Clondalkin wards in the 09 local elections.

    With a quota likley to be short of 8000 it is hard to see FG doubling their vote within the next 12 months.

    Both Keating and Fitzgerald will be competing for votes from the Lucan end of the constituency.

    07 showed transfers favour Labour rather than FG.

    A second FG seat seems highly unlikly
    If Gogarty were to loose a seat to Labour it would be Karma in operation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Cat View Post
    If Gogarty were to loose a seat to Labour it would be Karma in operation.
    Why, I know he said he wanted to kill Joanna Tuffy's beagle and said phuck you to Emmett Stagg but is that all?

  7. #7

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    I dont see SF doing it.

    They have been far to inconsistent in there work in the constituency, and the lack of candidate continuity is a serious weakness.

    They are standing a good candidate but he is being parachuted in from the outside, a strategy which failed with the doughnut Spain in '07.

    That said the same candidate may as well be in labour so if he can hang on long enough he might get labour transfers, but its unlikly.

    Last seat will be a fight for second labour or pbpa.

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    Fianna Fails John Curran, despite everything should be safe.
    Joanna Tuffy should win a seat for Labour.
    I assume that Mary Harney wont be standing.
    I think Derek Keating may outpoll Frances Fitzgerald (although she may get some of the Harney vote)
    Gogartys gone.
    So 1 FF , 1 Lab and 1 FG so far...

    The final seat should be between Fine Gael and Labour. There will be a number of candidates to the Left of Labour. A Sinn Fein candidate (Eoin O'Broin?), People Before Profits Gino Kenny and The Workers Party Mick Finnegan is likely to stand also.
    A lot will depend on how well spread the Labour vote is. By that if Tuffy and the second Labour candidate are not too far apart they should profit more in transfers from the smaller parties and the Greens than Fine Gael will.
    The problem for Labour is to have a second candidate capable of getting a decent first preference vote.
    Poor vote management from Labour and Fine Gael should win the second seat.

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    Politics.ie Member Kerrygold's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Salmon of Knowledge View Post

    They are standing a good candidate but he is being parachuted in from the outside, a strategy which failed with the doughnut Spain in '07.
    Whats with the personal insults.

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    Politics.ie Member Reality bites's Avatar
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    There is a guaranteed gain for FG here and their current strategy would make them favourites for two seats at moment. Keating brings a big personal vote and Fitzgerald has resurrected the organisation out there. Probably at expense of Gogarty 1st, if harney retires it becomes a slam dunk to win 2 i would reckon. Ive said previously this is the easiest constituency in Dublin for FG to win an extra seat in, followed by another.

    Tuffy will be most likely joined by Dowds but this is by no means certain. Labour got lucky at last GE with increase in seats, high transfer attractiveness, combined with weak FG org at time that hindered ability to win a seat.

    But FG now have 4 council seats btw Clondalkin & Lucan where once they had 1 (due to PD Tony Delaney joining in Clon, Keating in Lucan joining & lavelle winning a seat in Lucan).

    Labour should have won a second Council seat in Clondalkin, plus excellent vote management, helped by fact she was only female gave parachutee Caitriona Jones the last seat in Lucan.
    If Dowds was on ticket he would benefit from SF & PBP transfers probably but it could seriously weaken Tuffy and she would have to do huge work in Palmerstown area and seriously work over Lucan. But Labour will be very transfer attractive, and Greens will not be so there will probably be a large tranche of votes out there to be won in later counts.

    This constituency will be one of the really interesting ones- how much can Labour gain, how will FG do, will Curran's high personal vote collapse, will Gogarty disappear, would harney's loyal vote leave her after recession. Its a microcosm of the country.
    FF & Greens did awfully here in locals, FG have strongly established themselves and Labour have become slightly more coherent but lots still to do.
    'I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts' -Mark Twain

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