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Thread: Your Gen Election predictions

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    Politics.ie Member adamirer's Avatar
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    Default Your Gen Election predictions

    Last year there was a thread on how the European/Local/By-elections would affect a 2010 General Election. A year has passed. George Lee stood down. Pay agreements took centre stage, and Labour moved closer to FF in the polls than ever before.

    Several posters here, particularly on the 'Where will labour get 2 seats' thread have great ambitions for labour in 2011/2012. Others think FF will rebound with 'green shoots' (sic) showing, and others think FG will hit the mid/high 70s.

    So, time to put your money where your mouth is, and post your predictions if an election was called. Go wuith what you think will happen and get off the fence... no 'one of FG/Lab/SF' answers, call it. There's no point saying Labour will get 35 seats, or FF will get 45, or FG will get 75 unless you can point to where the changes will take place, and no maybes, predict what you'll think will happen.

    Caveats:
    There have been some boundary changes since the 2007 GE, notably in Cork North Central where FG & Lab have hopes of a 2nd seat, and in Kerry North which has taken in parts of Limerick. Seat changes -

    Dun Laoighaire is down from 5 to 4 seats.
    Dublin West goes from 3 seats to four.
    Louth becomes a 5 seater, but one of those is the FF C-C who is automatically elected,
    Limerick East loses a seat.

    2007:
    FF 78 (79 if you include Bev Flynn then ind)
    PD 2 (call it 81 FF'ers)
    FG 51
    Labour 20
    Sinn Fein 4
    Greens 6
    Ind/others: 5 (inc BCF)

    Currently:
    FF Gene Pool 78 (inc Harney, Grelish, Behan, McDaid & Ceann C)
    FG 51
    Labour 20
    Sinn Fein 4
    Greens 6
    Ind/others: 4 (Lowry, Jackie-HR, McGrath, O'Sullivan)
    Vacancies: 3 by-elections pending

    2011/12:
    FF 60 (-21)
    FG 68 (+17)
    Labour 26 (+6)
    Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
    Greens 1 (-5)
    Ind/others: 6 (+2)

    And here's where I see it happening.

    Breakdown:

    Carklow/Kilkenny: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Carlow Kilkenny First Preference Votes
    Now: 3 FF, 1 FG, 1 Gr.
    Mary White (Gr) to lose, one FF to drop, probably MJ Nolan or Alyward to JP Phelan (FG) and Labour (Jim Townsend)....
    2012: 2 FF 2 FG, 1 Lab (FG & Lab gain, FF & Green loss)

    Cavan Monaghan: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cavan Monaghan First Preference Votes
    Now: 3 FF (O'Hanlon was CC), 1 SF, 1 FG.
    At least one FF to go here. 3 FF only delivered due to O'Hanlon not having to run. Joe O'Reilly (FG) to take a seat comfortably.. rest way off the pace in an area where FF should be at risk of losing a seat. Perfect place for a popular Labour candidate.
    2012: 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF (FG gain, FF loss)

    Clare: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Clare First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 2 FG.
    Labour and SF miles off the pace here. FF had 25k 1st prefs, FG had 20k. There was an Ind in 2002, but unless another emerges, or Madeline Taylor Quinn delivers a 3rd FG seat, its hard to see a change.
    2012: 2 FF 2 FG.

    Cork East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork East First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.
    Michael Ahern and Ned O'Keeffe took 2 seats with only them running, no sweepers - and started below quota. FF won't hold both seats. Paul Bradford (FG) was very close to Sherlock (Lab) for the last seat, and both should be fine next time, even with constituency changes.
    2012: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab. (FG gain, FF loss)

    Cork North Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork North Central First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.
    Much as Cork East, expect Noel o'Flynn (FF) got elected 1,500 votes of quota. FF won't hold this seat, Billy Kelleher is safe though with good profile. SF did well in 2007, but this is a FG gain for Gerry Kelly if they manage the vote better, although many Labour supporters insist Gilroy has a stronger chance.
    2012: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab (FG gain, FF loss)

    Cork North West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork North West First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 FG. A tough 3 seater.
    FF ran three strong pollers in 2007, and 2 sitting TDs, FG's Murphy and FF's Moynihan lost out. Batt O'Keeffe (FF) took last seat, comfortably on transfers from Murphy. Doable for FG, but only if FF remain as unpopular... no change.
    2012: 2 FF 1 FG.

    Cork South Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork South Central First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab.
    FF had 2.65 quotas in 2007. They'll (Michael Martin) still deliver 2 seats, just not as quickly. No change.
    2012: 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab.

    Cork South West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork South West First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FG, 1 FF.
    FF have 1.7 quotas here. The seat is safe as houses.
    2012: 2 FG 1 FF

    Donegal North East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Donegal North East First Preference Votes
    Now 2 FF, 1 FG.
    One of the hardest to call. FG's McHugh topped the pole and will be safe. FF once had 3 TDs out of 3 here, SF's Padraig McLochlainn is pressing but has the moment passed? FF had over 50% of the vote and 2.01 quotas in 07. Can SF dislodge a FF TD? the 3rd FF candidate (Keaveney) was only 700 votes off McLochlainn when eliminated... head says no. the FG seat was the one SF expected. If FF lose another seat here, in FF heartland and down to one seat, to SF, then it's all over for them...
    2012: No change. 2 FF, 1 FG

    Donegal South East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Donegal South West First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 FG.
    But different story here. SF's Pearse Doherty should take a FF seat from the the constituency of Mary Coughlan and Pat The Cope/Replacement. FF had the same quota as DNE, but no high profile candidate to repalce the cope, or sweep. Straight fight between Doherty and the Copes replacement - whenever a by-election is called...
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG, 1 SF. (SF gain, FF loss)

    Dublin Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin Central First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 Lab, 1 Ind.
    Bertie is finished in DC, and FF won't hold the 2nd seat. SF in toruble with Burke now Independent and thus splitting the vote with an official SF candidate. FG's Donohue a certainty to pick up a seat from FF and Labour have a chance of a 2nd seat here if they pick a great second candidate as O'Sullivan hasn't impressed... but with the jury out, she's still favourite.
    2012: 1 FF, 1 FG 1 Lab, 1 Ind. (FG gain, FF loss)

    Dublin MidWest: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin Mid West First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF, 1 Lab, 1 PD, 1 Green.
    Lot of change expected here. Curren will hold the FF seat, but on much lower vote. Harney is retiring and Gogarty (green) is rather unpopular and with Greens in chaos in Lucan. FG resurrgent here, Francis Fitzgerald was a bit off the pace last time, but her and Derek Keating (FG) - who got a massive 4K+ vote in the Locals - more than Gogarty or Tuffy got in the GE, will be battling to bring home not one, but 2 FG seats as a result of Harney going. FG have been hugely active in Lucan since 2007 and are going for it. This is the ideal home for Mary Lou McDonald is SF are to put her anywhere and she'd be the most likely for last seat, rather than 2 FG if she runs.
    2012: 1 FF, 1 Lab & 2 FG (or 1 FG & 1 SF if MLM runs). (2 FG gain, FF/PD loss, Green loss)

    Dublin North: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green.
    FF will struggle to hold both seats as they only had a 2.1 quota, FG safe, and Trevor Sargent might be the only green left standing. Clare Daly (Soc) should do very well, but expect Lab should pick up the FF seat and Daly to lose out, but prob go to Europe instead of Joe Higgins.
    2012: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green, 1 Lab. (Lab gain, FF loss)

    Dublin North Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North Central First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind.
    Tough three seater. FF and FG seat are solid. Finian mcGrath divides opinions but Independents should be ok (see Clontarf LE result) unless Labour really capitalise on FF unpopularity and start eating into McGraths area. Labour need to take this seat... no change.
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Ind (more likely than 1 Lab currently).

    Dublin North East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North East First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.
    FF had 1.6 quota, even a 50% collapse will see them home...no change.
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Lab.

    Dublin North West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin North West First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 Lab.
    Great result in 07 for FF, but wont hold that seat now. Who of Noel Ahern or Pat Carey will go? SF did well here in 07, but FG's Bill Tormey should benefit from a FF fall and FG bounce, but isnt inspiring to date... a key target for FG. If they don't take it...
    2012: 1 FF, 1 Lab and 1 FG (or 1 SF) (FG gain, FF loss)

    Dublin South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South First Preference Votes
    Now/2007: 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 Green (G Lee vacancy). With PDs/Liz O'Donnell now gone, FG to hold all three seats as Lee soaks up chunks of the Ryan/Green vote and some FF. Alex White (Lab) to be comfortably elected, battle for last seat between Eamon Ryan (Greens) and a 3rd FG.
    2012: 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 Lab. (FG & Lab gain, FF & Green loss)

    Dublin South Central: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South Central First Preference Votes.
    Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF.
    This is a big one for all parties. FG seat is safe, but not a hope of a 2nd. There's one safe FF and Lab seat. The other FF seat and SF's seat are in play. Labours Eric Byrne had a massive result in Crumlin LE and was only 100 votes off SF's O'Snodaigh last time out. PBP Brid Smith must also be wondering does she have a chance, if she can come in ahead of O'Snodaigh and just one of her/Joan Collins run after BPB excellent Locals. FF had 15,725 1stp in the GE.. they had 4,420 in the locals in DSC, both Ardaghs losing badly. SF to pip PBP. Barely.
    2012: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Lab, 1 SF (or 1 PBP/+1 FF) (Lab gain, FF loss)

    Dublin South East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South East First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF, 1FG. 1 Lab, 1 Green.
    Another key one. McDowell/PDs are gone. Gormley couldnt stop incinerator and got elected on anti-McDowell transfers. Green seat to go and on the basis of the old PD vote seeking a new home, to FG rather than Humphries (Lab), with Eoghan Murphy, but it will be tight between Murphy, Humphreys and Gormley for the final seat.
    2012: 1 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab. (FG gain, Green loss)

    Dublin South West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South West First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.
    Labour disputes this, but I think its easy to call. SF (Sean Crowe) to take 2nd FF seat. Crowe was miles off the pace in 2007, but the collpsing FF vote has to go somewhere and some of it will go to him or MLM if she's put there, enough to keep him ahead of a 2nd Labour candidate. Talk of Rabbitte delivering a second seat is optimistic in the extreme with Crowe having such a head start and an established name.
    2012: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab, 1 SF (SF gain, FF loss)

    Dublin West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin West First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.
    Additional seat added, Joe Higgins the winner. Lenihan, Varadkar and Burton all very high profile. Joe Higgins will win the new seat
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Lab 1 Soc. Socialist gain

    Dun Laoighaire: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dun Laoghaire First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 FG 1 lab 1 Green.
    Big 5 seater now down to a four seater. FF to lose a seat here and Cuffe is the first Green td to fall. FG will take a 2nd seat here after bad vote management in 2007 and Richard Boyd barrett will miss out in the squeeze due to the seat change. There simply isn't a 2nd labour seat here despite people talking Gilmore up as Boyd Barrett is sucking up the possible left vote. No Boyd-Barrett, then yeah, great chance... but as it is the real debate here is Hanafin or Andrews to go!!!!
    2012: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab. (FG gain, FF loss)

    Galway East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Galway East First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 2 FG: Hard to see a change here with FF and FG both with 39% of the vote! Can't see any change, bar the faces.
    2012: 2 FF 2 FG.

    Galway West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Galway West First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1FG 1PD 1 Lab.
    Some change here. Noel Grelish position is hard to figure... we should define him as 3 FF really, pushing FF to over 50% of the vote. They'll drop back a bit, but hard to call. 3 FF in a 5 seater? Naw, Healy-Eames to take the seat.
    2012: 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 Lab (FG gain, FF loss)

    Kerry North/West Limerick: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kerry North First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF 1 FG 1 SF.
    The constituency is radically changed with the inclusion of some of the old Limerick West. A resurgent Labour in the area with Arthur Spring may give Ferris (which one?) a ferocious battle for the last seat. SF got 4618 E votes in KN this time, Lab got 6729... toss a coin. Ferris vs Spring will be a barometre of how well Labour can do nationally. Deenihan FG is safe, but can both Ferris and Spring takes seats and FF lose out? not in a rural area...
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Lab. (Lab gain, SF loss)

    Kerry South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kerry South First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Ind.
    O'Donohues is no longer CC - so no change.
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG I Ind.

    Kildare North: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kildare North First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1FG 1 Lab:
    FF 2nd seat at risk, to Catherine Murphy (ind - ex Labour, would she re-join?), but no other real threat.
    2012: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 lab, 1 Ind. (Ind gain, FF loss)

    Kildare South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Kildare South First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 Lab.
    Brilliant FF result in 2007, both candidates right on the quota mark. FG should have delivered and certainly will next time - if they run one candidate!
    2012: 1 FF, 1 FG 1 Lab. (FG gain, FF loss)

    Laois Offaly: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Laoighis Offaly First Preference Votes
    Now: 3 FF 2 FG. Cowen's constituency. No change.
    2012: 3 FF and 2 FG.

    Limerick East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Limerick East First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 2 FG 1 lab.
    Willie O'Dea and co had 2.92 quotas and its now a 4 seater. 2 FF are safe, the battle is whether FG or Lab lose the 4th seat. I think Labour will hold on with Kieran O'Donnell making way - even though Tim O'Malleys PD vote is in play, but it'll be close.
    2012: 2 FF 1 FG 1 Lab (FG loss)

    Limerick West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Limerick West First Preference Votes
    Now 2 FF 1 FG.
    Simple swap with the 2nd FF now a 2nd FG. FF had 2.14 and FG 1.67 quotas.. a small swing swaps the seats. No one else even close.
    2012: 1 FF 2 FG. (FG gain, FF loss)

    Longford Westmeath: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Longford Westmeath First Preference Votes.
    Now 2 FF, 1FG 1 Lab.
    The O'Rourke/Cassidy area. FF got 2.06 quota and FG 1.55. Can see the 2nd FF seat swap to FG very easily, esp now PDs have gone. Mae Sexton won't deliver 2 labours seats.
    2012: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab. (FG gain, FF loss)

    Louth: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Louth First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 FG 1 SF.
    An additional seat has been added making this a five seater but FF have a CC now, so effectively its a 4 seater again. FF had 2.11 quota and FG only had 1.47, even with high profile Mairead McGuinness, but should take it next time.
    2012: 2 FF 2 FG 1 SF (FG gain extra seat)

    Mayo: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Mayo First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 3 FG. Kenny homeland. All seats are safe. No change.
    2012: 2 FF 3 FG

    Meath East: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Meath East First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 FG.
    FF will lose a seat here. labours Dominic Hannigan well placed to take Byrne's seat.
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Lab. (Lab gain, FF loss)

    Meath West: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Meath West First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 FG.
    Dempsey land. FF took a big hit here in the locals but SF too far back (and stalling) to make up the ground. There was almost a quota gap betwene FG and FF last time, too much to make up. No change.
    2012: 2 FF 1 FG

    Roscommon Leitrim S: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Roscommon Leitrim South First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FG 1 FF. No change.
    2012: 2 FG 1 FF.

    Sligo Leitrim N: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Sligo Leitrim North First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 FG.
    Swap between FG and FF for the last seat.
    2012: 1 FF 2 FG (FG gain, FF loss)

    Tipp North: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Tipperary North First Preference Votes
    Now: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Ind.
    No change, Lowry seems safe as houses. Marie Hoctor FF will be incredibly nervous as if Kathleen O'Meara of Lab does very well and FF totally collapse, she might threaten the final seat.. but on the balance of probabilities its unlikely, No FF in a constituency - might be here.
    2012: 1 FF 1 FG 1 Ind

    Tipp South: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Tipperary South First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 FG.
    FF had 1.86 quotas last time, FG had .85, lab .35 but the Ind who challenged had .59. Not sure if that persons moment has gone, but Labour (Phil prendergast) are just too far off to confidently challange here. Hence no change:
    2012: 2 FF 1 FG

    Waterford: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Waterford First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 1 FG 1 Lab.
    FF had 2.32 quotas last time. If hit hard then you can see John Deasy (FG) bringing in the 2nd FG'er.. on current urban FF performance, probable - and FF now have 6 cllrs there compared to FG's 15.
    2012: 1 FF 2 FG 1 Lab. (FG gain, FF loss)

    Wexford: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Wexford First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.
    No change. FF had 2.53 quotas last time and while FG had 1.89. Theres not enough here to take a FF seat away and Howlin won't carry a 2nd Lab candidate over the line.
    2012: 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

    Wicklow: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Wicklow First Preference Votes
    Now: 2 FF (inc Behan) 2 FG 1 Lab.
    Joe Behan messes the sums up and its hard to know exactly how he'll play out, but realistically, FG have everything they can get here and Labour's Nicky Kelly just isn't up to it - transferring almost as much to FF as he did Labour! FF had 2.28 quoats and Lab had .98, so while its far from impossible that Labour could take a FF seat, its not probable. Same seats returned (calling Behen FF and not an Ind).
    2012: 2 FF 2 FG 1 Lab.

    Total 2012:
    FF 60 (-21)
    FG 68 (+17)
    Labour 26 (+6)
    Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
    Greens 1 (-5)
    Ind/others: 6 (+2)

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    I would tend to agree but with FG gainig less and Labour ganing more
    It is indeed hard for the strong to be just to the weak, but acting justly always has its rewards.

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    Well done on a thorough constituency analysis.
    However you are basing all of it on what you feel is likely to develop and its clear your core assumption is that FF will at very least partially recover.

    Given the choice, most would predict likewise but the same logic destroyed stock markets and property.
    Our own great ex Taoiseach brilliantly encapsulated this flaw in forecasting with his prediction on BOI.
    His rationale based solely on widely held hokum beliefs that if something falls significantly it has a far greater chance of rising over time from there than falling.
    This is flawed thinking as at its heart there is an implication that the huge fall itself is somehow not merited, overdone and therefore almost certain to correct itself.
    Holders of BOI learned the hard way that our ex Taoiseach is the clown many had always suspected him to be.

    If one accepts say that the economy has no better than a 50-50 shot of being materially improved between now and the GE, then FF are as likely to fall 13% as they are to rise to 33%.
    However 99% of pundits would say 33% is far more likely than 13%.

    Me, I say attributing future rises or falls is too hazardous and therefore you must stick with the current as the best barometer.

    On 23% FF couldn't get within an asses roar of 60 seats.
    On 13% in Dublin they mathematically couldn't get 12 as you forecast, they could on a bad day get none.

    FF 32
    FG 70
    LAB 38
    SF 12
    Greens Zero
    Higgins Crew 3-4
    Indos 6-9
    Last edited by Anorakphobia; 27th May 2010 at 04:30 PM.

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    Broadly, I'd agree with you, except for a few constituencies I've gone through below.

    Of course, a lot depends on the date of the election. If it happened now, FF would be murdered, but wait til 2012 and they'll come back a bit

    Cork North West: I really can't see FF holding 2 here. FG need to go with a 3 candidate strategy with a candidate based in Ballincollig, but probably won't. Labour will surprise everyone with their performance here and will take 15% of the vote, but will still be well short. I'd just see FG picking up the 2nd seat. FG 2 FF 1

    Dublin MW: I don't see 2 FG gains here. Assuming Harney doesn't run, I can just see Gogarty retaining FF 1 FG 1 Lab 1 Green 1

    Dublin NW: It will be SF that gain here, not FG. FF 1 SF 1 Lab 1

    Dublin S: No 3 seats for FG. Labour will gain, but at whose expense? Ryan can just hang on if he can take some of O'Malley's vote and Labour get over a quota FG 2 FF 1 Lab 1 Green 1

    Galway E: FF look too far short of two. With good vote management, FG can take 3. FG 3 FF 1

    Kerry N: SF have enough to retain. The battle for the last seat will be between FF and Labour. FG 1 SF 1 Lab 1

    Kerry S: The Healy-Rae seat will go. This could be a rare FF gain, unless Labour can find a good candidate to replace Breda Moynihan-Cronin. I think they probably will. FG 1 FF 1 Lab 1

    Limerick E: Dell is a huge influence here. FF to lose out. FF 1 FG 2 Lab 1

    Tipp South: Either Labour or Seamus Healy to gain. FF 1 FG 1 Ind 1

    FF 55
    FG 68
    Labour 27
    Sinn Fein 7
    Greens 3
    Ind/others: 6
    Economic Left/Right: -2.88 (down 3.63 since the financial crash)
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.18

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    Interesting thread.

    I don't see FF gaining 60, or near 60. But I agree that they will be higher than the polls suggest, I suspect in the high 40s. A lot of FF voters are not declaring yet. But FF will struggle with transfers and will be hit by its organisational chaos - once the party with the best organisation, its organisation is now in rag order.

    FG I think will be in the high 60s and could break 70.

    Labour I suspect will be a lot worse than polls suggest (no local organisation, running multiple candidates where they have no practical experience of how to do it in general elections). I expect Labour to be around the low to mid 30s.

    SF is hard to predict. It should in theory do well but its organisation is in rag order with defections. So it could either win a few seats or have a disaster.

    I think the Greens will hold 2-3 seats.

    I expect a significant number of independents as people elect single-issue candidates.
    "In [Ireland] a wife is regarded as a chattel, just as a thoroughbred mare or cow." Mr Justice Butler in the Irish courts. 'Traditional Marriage' in the 1970s.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TommyO'Brien View Post
    Interesting thread.

    I don't see FF gaining 60, or near 60. But I agree that they will be higher than the polls suggest, I suspect in the high 40s. A lot of FF voters are not declaring yet. But FF will struggle with transfers and will be hit by its organisational chaos - once the party with the best organisation, its organisation is now in rag order.

    FG I think will be in the high 60s and could break 70.

    Labour I suspect will be a lot worse than polls suggest (no local organisation, running multiple candidates where they have no practical experience of how to do it in general elections). I expect Labour to be around the low to mid 30s.

    SF is hard to predict. It should in theory do well but its organisation is in rag order with defections. So it could either win a few seats or have a disaster.

    I think the Greens will hold 2-3 seats.

    I expect a significant number of independents as people elect single-issue candidates.

    That is a fair appraisal. I concur.

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    Tommy,
    Dont want to sidetrack a good thread but you know it drives me mad to see FG'ers accept the inevitability of a FF recovery?
    Why do FG do this? Why do you believe it?
    To me it smacks of a lack of belief in yourselves.

    The equivalent of say Galway finding themselves 12 points up on the worst Kilkenny team that ever took the field at half time and playing them off the pitch but accepting in the dressing room that they will be blessed to get home by a point come full time.

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    FF 42
    FG 70
    Lab 34
    SF 7
    Greens 1
    Ind/Others 12

    For the lolz.

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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    Broadly, I'd agree with you, except for a few constituencies I've gone through below.

    Of course, a lot depends on the date of the election. If it happened now, FF would be murdered, but wait til 2012 and they'll come back a bit

    Cork North West: I really can't see FF holding 2 here. FG need to go with a 3 candidate strategy with a candidate based in Ballincollig, but probably won't. Labour will surprise everyone with their performance here and will take 15% of the vote, but will still be well short. I'd just see FG picking up the 2nd seat. FG 2 FF 1

    Dublin MW: I don't see 2 FG gains here. Assuming Harney doesn't run, I can just see Gogarty retaining FF 1 FG 1 Lab 1 Green 1

    Dublin NW: It will be SF that gain here, not FG. FF 1 SF 1 Lab 1

    Dublin S: No 3 seats for FG. Labour will gain, but at whose expense? Ryan can just hang on if he can take some of O'Malley's vote and Labour get over a quota FG 2 FF 1 Lab 1 Green 1

    Galway E: FF look too far short of two. With good vote management, FG can take 3. FG 3 FF 1

    Kerry N: SF have enough to retain. The battle for the last seat will be between FF and Labour. FG 1 SF 1 Lab 1

    Kerry S: The Healy-Rae seat will go. This could be a rare FF gain, unless Labour can find a good candidate to replace Breda Moynihan-Cronin. I think they probably will. FG 1 FF 1 Lab 1

    Limerick E: Dell is a huge influence here. FF to lose out. FF 1 FG 2 Lab 1

    Tipp South: Either Labour or Seamus Healy to gain. FF 1 FG 1 Ind 1
    Cork North West: It'll be close.. but there were 3 strong FF performances here in 2007 but i guess with 1.54 quotas FG would expect to take the seat froma 2.12 FF, so fair enough.

    Dublin MW: I cannot see Gogarty holding on. I live in the area and he's been nowhere. Fitgerald and Keating have been canvassing hard for a long time and Keating got more in the locals in Lucan than Gogarty and Tuffy got in the entire DMW area.

    DublinSouth: Ryan is taking a lot of flack. I can't see him surviving, after all, it was Alex Whites transfer that pushed him over last time and this time White will be ahead of him.

    Galway E: I can see the 3 Fgs, but think 2 FF is still more likely.

    Kerry North: Can't disagree with you, its 1 FG and 2 from 3 of SF/FF/Lab.

    Kerry South: Don;t see Healy Rae going unless Labour get a good replacement with name recognition. Granted, he was blessed to be ahead of Cronin on count 4 in 2007.. but he was...

    Limerick East: Dell or not, its now a 4 seater and theres not way Willie O'Dea will fail to carry a 2nd FF'er across the line.

    Tipp South: Healy.. maybe, I don't know if he'll run - was he a single issue guy in 2007?

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    Quote Originally Posted by adamirer View Post
    Laois Offaly: ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Laoighis Offaly First Preference Votes
    Now: 3 FF 2 FG. Cowen's constituency. No change.
    2012: 3 FF and 2 FG.
    Laois/Offaly had a boundary change that saw much of Enright's base chopped off. If there's a 'Gilmore Gale' any reasonable Lab candidate would be well placed to take her seat.

    Quote Originally Posted by adamirer View Post

    Total 2012:
    FF 60 (-21)
    FG 68 (+17)
    Labour 26 (+6)
    Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
    Greens 1 (-5)
    Ind/others: 6 (+2)
    By 2012 the economy should at least have levelled off, we will be used to the cuts and Harney's infamous 6 month forgetfulness will have kicked in.

    FF will fight a scare campaign - 'We steered the country through the storm, do you want to risk all your sacrifices on two inexperienced parties that don't even agree on policy?'

    FG will have to work against the Kenny Factor. Their leader can't drag himself above the 30% mark in the polls and is hugely gaffe prone. In the intense atmosphere of a GE he's pretty much guaranteed to take a pot shot at the feet that will damage perception of him as Taoiseach.

    Lab might have a Gilmore factor that will boost them somewhat. It's not certain though as he's inconsistent.

    My gut instinct would be that FF and Lab would do better than your prediction and FG wont do as well.

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