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Thread: Has Nationalism in Northern Ireland Peaked? - Analysis of Election Results 2001-2010

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    Default Has Nationalism in Northern Ireland Peaked? - Analysis of Election Results 2001-2010

    Plenty of talk on here about about how nationalism is on the march and a few marginal seats are only an election or two away from falling, analysis of the combined nationalist vote across the last 3 elections is interesting - it is either going backwards or growing at a snails pace.

    North Belfast
    2010 - 46.3%
    2005 - 44.7%
    2001 - 46.2%

    South Belfast
    2010 - 41%
    2005 - 41.3%
    2001 - 38.2% nb the Womens Coalition stood gaining 7.8% of the vote

    Upper Bann
    2010 - 37.4%
    2005 - 34%
    2001 - 36%

    East Londonderry
    2010 - 34.7%
    2005 - 33.2%
    2001 - 36.5%

    Fermanagh and South Tyrone
    2010 - 53.1%
    2005 - 53%
    2001 - 52.9%

    North Antrim
    2010 - 21.2%
    2005 - 27.9%
    2001 - 26.6%

    West Tyrone
    2010 - 62.4%
    2005 - Keiren Deeny stood taking a large percentage of the vote
    2001 - 69.5%

    Newry and Armagh
    2010 - 65.4%
    2005 - 66.6%
    2001 - 68.3%

    Mid Ulster
    2010 - 66.3%
    2005 - 65%
    2001 - 67.9%

    I haven't bothered with the safest Unionist seats but it looks very much like the nationalist advance peaked in 2001 and is in reverse in most places, while still increasing by a trickle in other places like by rates of 0.1%, and certainly not anything like quick enough for major game changing outcomes.

    If Unionism gets itself sorted out then the future is looking bright.

    Do our resident nationalists have any explanation for this slump/reverse in the nationalist advance?

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    Politics.ie Member physicist's Avatar
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    No Foyle then? Or South Down?

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    Quote Originally Posted by physicist View Post
    No Foyle then? Or South Down?
    Didn't bother doing the safest seats on either side feel free to add them in if you like.

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    Politics.ie Member physicist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Portstewart View Post
    Didn't bother doing the safest seats on either side feel free to add them in if you like.
    Oh wait no West Belfast either, hadn't noticed.

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    These numbers are meaningless without also giving the total number of votes cast and the turnout % in each constituency, in each election.

    Why no mention in your "special factors" for some elections of the fact that in North Antrim Catholics last week voted for Junior to make sure that nutter Allister didn't get the seat?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SideysGhost View Post
    These numbers are meaningless without also giving the total number of votes cast and the turnout % in each constituency, in each election.

    Why no mention in your "special factors" for some elections of the fact that in North Antrim Catholics last week voted for Junior to make sure that nutter Allister didn't get the seat?
    Of course they're not meaningless. What a mad thing to say. It's the % vote for nationalist parties in recent elections, of those votes cast. It's a real number, worthy of consideration in considering an increase or decrease of support. If there is an increase of support, it should manifest itself in activity - ie voting, no?
    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.
    John Stuart Mill

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joopface View Post
    Of course they're not meaningless. What a mad thing to say. It's the % vote for nationalist parties in recent elections, of those votes cast. It's a real number, worthy of consideration in considering an increase or decrease of support. If there is an increase of support, it should manifest itself in activity - ie voting, no?


    Obviously maths wasn't your strong point back in school, eh?

    All we have is a list of percentages - but percentages of what?

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    No nationalism hasn't peaked. 2001 was a very good year for nationalism and nationalist turnout was very high. However westminster elections are seen less and less important by nationalists in each westminster election. The nationalist turnout was down 10% on 2005 and the share of the vote still grew to 42/42.5%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SideysGhost View Post
    These numbers are meaningless without also giving the total number of votes cast and the turnout % in each constituency, in each election.

    Why no mention in your "special factors" for some elections of the fact that in North Antrim Catholics last week voted for Junior to make sure that nutter Allister didn't get the seat?
    As above it is the single best verometer for measuring how the nationalist vote is faring. If you want the rest go and dig it out and post it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SideysGhost View Post


    Obviously maths wasn't your strong point back in school, eh?

    All we have is a list of percentages - but percentages of what?
    Percentage of the combined nationalist vote that is the percentage of votes in each constituency that were for SF and the SDLP.

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