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Thread: GE- All to play for in Dun Laoghaire.

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    Politics.ie Member Socratus O' Pericles's Avatar
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    Default GE- All to play for in Dun Laoghaire.

    Down to a 4 seater :

    The Greens dead in the water.

    FG have got problems without Regan.The Bailey's are not well enough liked-- typical snobby arriviste FG'ers

    FG Senator not to seek party nomination for next election - The Irish Times - Sat, Apr 03, 2010

    Would Labour run Bacik?

    Bacik set to run alongside Gilmore in next election



    What about the PBP effect? Boyd Barrett is going well locally.

    Andrews nothing short of a disaster in the midst of the child abuse scandal.

    Getting exciting but harder to call perhaps 1FF, 1FG, Lab and 1either Lab or PBP

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    Politics.ie Member Disillusioned democrat's Avatar
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    Unfortunately Andrew's track record in Gov.ie will not stop him being re-elected, and don't undermine the detachment of the average Green Party voter when it comes to re-electing Cuffee - Dun Laoghaire is relatively unharmed by recession/depression and do love their moral high ground.

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    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    Down to a 4 seater :

    The Greens dead in the water.

    FG have got problems without Regan.The Bailey's are not well enough liked-- typical snobby arriviste FG'ers

    FG Senator not to seek party nomination for next election - The Irish Times - Sat, Apr 03, 2010

    Would Labour run Bacik?

    Bacik set to run alongside Gilmore in next election



    What about the PBP effect? Boyd Barrett is going well locally.

    Andrews nothing short of a disaster in the midst of the child abuse scandal.

    Getting exciting but harder to call perhaps 1FF, 1FG, Lab and 1either Lab or PBP
    Labour won't be running bacik, she is seeking DSE nomination, there's a thread on it somewhere, although they might if she doesn't get the nomination. I reckon labour should run Childers, she would pick up loads'a former green votes having defected herself and was a cllr in Blackrock, at the other end from Ballybrack, Gilmore's base. That's no guarantee though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    Down to a 4 seater :

    The Greens dead in the water.

    FG have got problems without Regan.The Bailey's are not well enough liked-- typical snobby arriviste FG'ers

    FG Senator not to seek party nomination for next election - The Irish Times - Sat, Apr 03, 2010

    Would Labour run Bacik?

    Bacik set to run alongside Gilmore in next election



    What about the PBP effect? Boyd Barrett is going well locally.

    Andrews nothing short of a disaster in the midst of the child abuse scandal.

    Getting exciting but harder to call perhaps 1FF, 1FG, Lab and 1either Lab or PBP
    This is Dun Laoghaire your talking about right? Is it not a prerequiste to be a snobby FG'er to live there?

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    Politics.ie Member Socratus O' Pericles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sumlulu View Post
    This is Dun Laoghaire your talking about right? Is it not a prerequiste to be a snobby FG'er to live there?

    You may not be aware of

    the Nick the nack
    the noggin and the brack

    but there is a stong working class vote in dlr,boyd barrett went close and Gilmore sailed in.

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    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
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    Mightn't FG get 2, or is Barrett retiring? What about Hanafin losing her seat, there is a collapse on the way for FF in Dublin you know.

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    Politics.ie Member Socratus O' Pericles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Red_93 View Post
    Mightn't FG get 2, or is Barrett retiring? What about Hanafin losing her seat, there is a collapse on the way for FF in Dublin you know.
    I suspect it is Andrews rather than Hanafin that will go, as well as being a rotten Minister for Children he does f*** all in the south of the constiuency.

    Barett or a clone will do well.

    If LAb got its act together it could do well.

    The greens attracted some of the protest voters 3,4,5's they won't get these now and will suffer badly

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    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    I suspect it is Andrews rather than Hanafin that will go, as well as being a rotten Minister for Children he does f*** all in the south of the constiuency.

    Barett or a clone will do well.

    If LAb got its act together it could do well.

    The greens attracted some of the protest voters 3,4,5's they won't get these now and will suffer badly
    There was a lot on DL in the thread 'constituencies where labour will win 2 seats' and most reckoned FG would get 2 after they cleaned up in the locals.

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    Politics.ie Member livingstone's Avatar
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    Posted detailed breakdown of how I think it will go elsewhere, but I expecct 1 FG, 1 Labour and the final two seats between FG, Lab, FF and PBP. I think this could genuinely be one constituency where FF are at risk of having no TDs.

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    Politics.ie Member Casualbets's Avatar
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    Looking at the local elections, I reckon even with 4 seats FG have to have a reasonable chance of 2 seats.

    One of the previous posters is right, in that there is a sizeable working-class/lower middle-class population in the west of Dun Laoghaire town, Sallynoggin, Ballybrack and Shankill. It's an unusual constituency, containing some of the wealthiest areas in the state living cheek by jowl with the areas mentioned above - possibly why it's a fertile breeding ground for middle class socialists such as Boyd-Barrett.

    Cuffe only got in last time when he finally got ahead of Boyd-Barrett with the help of Regan's (FG) transfers... considering he was only 130 votes ahead of Regan at the time, his seat was already extremely marginal before the constituency lost a seat, the government's plummeting popularity and PBP's success in the locals.

    I can't really see Labour making a bid for 2 seats... any such strategy would require vote-splitting and it really wouldn't make much sense to endanger a popular leader for a long shot at a 2nd seat....

    I reckon 1 FF 1 FG 1 LAB... last seat a scrap between FG and Boyd-Barrett...

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