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Thread: ESRI: No threat of Irish default

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member evercloserunion's Avatar
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    Default ESRI: No threat of Irish default

    I don't know if this comes as a surprise to anybody because I hadn't heard anyone seriously talking about an imminent Irish sovereign default, but according to the FT the Economic and Social Research Institute has said that Ireland is not likely to default on its debt any time soon, despite its recent splashing out on NAMA and Anglo.

    FT.com / Europe - Threat of Ireland debt default dismissed
    The Economic and Social Research Institute said the net cost to the state of the bank bail-out could reach €25bn ($34bn, £22bn), or 15 per cent of gross domestic product, which is in line with the fiscal costs of banking crises in other economies.

    Is the €25bn figure correct do you think?
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  2. #2
    The_Big_Fellow
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    No one believes that a default is imminent. It is very possible within the next ten years though.

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    Now you should all be afraid - the ESRI have a pretty solid record as a contra-indicator

    In saying that, there's no old debt to be rolled over in 2010 so the Gubbermunt might get another 12 months out of this charade yet.

  4. #4
    The_Big_Fellow
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    Quote Originally Posted by SideysGhost View Post
    Now you should all be afraid - the ESRI have a pretty solid record as a contra-indicator

    In saying that, there's no old debt to be rolled over in 2010 so the Gubbermunt might get another 12 months out of this charade yet.
    The ESRI have an exceptionally poor record.

    It is the compounding of debt that is our real concern.

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    May have been posted already but here it is anyway.


    Ireland's debt is ?1trillion: Central Bank | Irish Examiner

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    Yep as Sidey says no rollovers until 2011. But what we will have this year is a failed bond auction which is a technical default and arguably worse as we cannot raise money to run the country as opposed to paying debt off.
    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” - Friedrich A. Hayek

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    Politics.ie Member An Gilladaker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SideysGhost View Post
    Now you should all be afraid - the ESRI have a pretty solid record as a contra-indicator

    In saying that, there's no old debt to be rolled over in 2010 so the Gubbermunt might get another 12 months out of this charade yet.
    They are simply the best that money can buy If only we knew how much they get paid and who appoints them

  8. #8
    The_Big_Fellow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cassandra Syndrome View Post
    Yep as Sidey says no rollovers until 2011. But what we will have this year is a failed bond auction which is a technical default and arguably worse as we cannot raise money to run the country as opposed to paying debt off.
    That would be likely. There is so much debt being sold this year, that unstable bets such as this state, must rank very low. We are the part of a balanced portfolio that offers high yields, high returns.

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    Here is an excellent piece:

    Greek lesson: we are all in the same boat – Telegraph Blogs

    Ireland is not as well poistioned as even Greece (and a lot worse than the UK) with regard to:

    1. current average maturity of debt:



    or

    2. Short term issuance requirements:


  10. #10
    The_Big_Fellow
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    Another great article by Nobel economist Paul Krugman. Ireland may follow Iceland - US expert - The Irish Times - Thu, Apr 16, 2009

    The ESRI should be sacked en masse for gross incompetence.

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