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Thread: General election, Mayo

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    Default General election, Mayo

    The prospects for outcome of general election in Mayo is fascinating. This is home of FG leader and he will be hoping to keep three seats here. Talk of a fourth is media rubbish. Kenny, Ring and Calleary are certainties, though the latter will have to deliver something for his native Ballina and North Mayo, seeing that he is a jnr. minister. Michelle Mulherin may put in a good effort for FG again, but she needs to get a team around her. After that it is all up in the air. John O Mahony should hold on, but Mayo football may need to improve and he will face a comeback attempt by quiet man John Carty, but with the tide against FF that may be difficult. I dont think FF will run a fourth. Neither do I think will Dr. Cowley try a comeback.

    Castlbar is the really fascinating place. Will Bev Cooper Flynn hold on. She will be under pressure. Michael Kilcoyne formerly of labour, now Independent is doing well and would give it a good run. Rumour has it also that SF will run three this time instead of one. They have good women candidates in Rose Walsh, Belmullet, and she is wise enough to distance herself from Shell to Sea antics, and Therese Ruane, Castlebar, whose sister is a minister in NI executive,and of course Gerry Murray who ran last time.
    My predictions are Kenny, Ring, O'Mahoney FG; Calleary FF;and either Kilcoyne or one of the SF candidates.
    You'd think Kenny committed Treason and brought in IMF. Cowen had all in stitches in Galway at 3.30a.m.but he was "not impaired" -DD Power. FF=Publican páirtí an IMF.

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    I have not mentioned the PD left overs,or Greens. I think both garnered about 300 votes between them in 2007
    You'd think Kenny committed Treason and brought in IMF. Cowen had all in stitches in Galway at 3.30a.m.but he was "not impaired" -DD Power. FF=Publican páirtí an IMF.

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    There's more chance of a 4th FG than a Sinn Fein seat.

    I can't see it being anything other than FG3 FF2 or FG4 FF1, unless FG ditch Enda as leader.

    Last time out, the assorted others only just scraped over 10% of the vote and that was with a sitting Independent TD.
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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    There's more chance of a 4th FG than a Sinn Fein seat.

    I can't see it being anything other than FG3 FF2 or FG4 FF1, unless FG ditch Enda as leader.

    Last time out, the assorted others only just scraped over 10% of the vote and that was with a sitting Independent TD.
    But with SF running 3 well placed candidates will make a difference. And Kilcoyne is strong. No chance of 4th. FG seat, unless there was perfect management, and with Michael Ring going all over the place, and he sends out thousands of letters to every other candidate's area a day or two before election, no hope of 4th. Just fantasy.
    You'd think Kenny committed Treason and brought in IMF. Cowen had all in stitches in Galway at 3.30a.m.but he was "not impaired" -DD Power. FF=Publican páirtí an IMF.

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    If those SF candidates don't transfer, it could put them in a worse place. Sometimes running loads of candidates works (PDs in Galway West), but more often than not, it leaks votes from the party because the strongest candidate isn't known outside their home area.

    I doubt FG will get 4. Considering the leadership factor, it's hard to see them getting a higher percentage than last time. However, they are only a couple of points away from the required percentage. Then comes the problem of managing Enda's vote and getting Ring to accept vote management at all.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomas Mor View Post
    . They have good women candidates in Rose Walsh, Belmullet, and she is wise enough to distance herself from Shell to Sea antics
    In your dreams ya corporate lackey

    An Phoblacht: Shell to Sea protestors jailed

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    Mayo is no change............given FF fight last time with Bev then next time it will be under one banner.

    FG need 10% to gain 4 out of 5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    NO CHANCE

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    If they split their vote perfectly, they could get it with only a few percent more. But I wouldn't like to be the person telling Michael Ring to give up votes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post
    If those SF candidates don't transfer, it could put them in a worse place. Sometimes running loads of candidates works (PDs in Galway West), but more often than not, it leaks votes from the party because the strongest candidate isn't known outside their home area.

    I doubt FG will get 4. Considering the leadership factor, it's hard to see them getting a higher percentage than last time. However, they are only a couple of points away from the required percentage. Then comes the problem of managing Enda's vote and getting Ring to accept vote management at all.
    I agree re several candidates it can work both ways. It worked for PDs in Galway, for FG in Galway East and Clare. But it can backfire too. And dont rule out Kilcoyne, either way Cooper Flynn is a gonner I think. If FF had put forward Dennis Gallagher last time he was sure of a seat in Castlebar and he would hold it with the Achill/Erris connection.
    You'd think Kenny committed Treason and brought in IMF. Cowen had all in stitches in Galway at 3.30a.m.but he was "not impaired" -DD Power. FF=Publican páirtí an IMF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by odie1kanobe View Post
    Mayo is no change............given FF fight last time with Bev then next time it will be under one banner.

    FG need 10% to gain 4 out of 5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    NO CHANCE
    bev shot herself with the women of mayo
    with the breast cancer thing
    "If we VOTE YES there will be no more austere budgets. Fact " Hammer, mayday 12'

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