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Thread: Pakistan/Taliban relations still directing Afghan Taliban?

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    Politics.ie Member Thac0man's Avatar
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    Default Pakistan/Taliban relations still directing Afghan Taliban?

    There are four related stories, all of which seem to point to ongoing dealings between the Pakistan authorities and the Afghan Taliban.

    Firstly there is the Indian/Pakistan talks which are making some headway. Link here:

    Al Jazeera English - CENTRAL/S. ASIA - Talks break India-Pakistan ice

    It is widely known that political groups in both countries oppose any peace agreement between Pakistan and India. However a big issue with both is relations with Afghanistan. Pakistan links with Afghanistan have been under severe strain, with Pakistan only in the last year making efforts to stop the Tailbans war being sourced and supplied from Pakistan soil. Recently another Al Jazeera TV report gave the issue much coverage.

    Now the Pakistan courts, whose judicial make up is still not reconstructed to establish judicial independance has ruled recently arrested Afghan Taliban will not be extradited to Afghanistan. The Pakistani intel services have not even confirmed who it is they have arrested, yet the court can rule said men, who are outside of the judicial process at this time can not be extradicted? Link:

    BBC News - 'No extradition' for Taliban chiefs held in Pakistan

    The case against extradition was taken by "civil rights activists", whom the report does not name.

    The ruling comes despite an earlier promise by Pakistans president to hand over said Taliban leaders:

    Al Jazeera English - CENTRAL/S. ASIA - Taliban deputy to be 'handed over'

    In the interim, the Taliban have struck Kabul, right in the middle of this affair, and it seems the majority of their targets were Indian:

    Al Jazeera English - CENTRAL/S. ASIA - Indians killed in Kabul blasts

    of all the targets the Taliban could have gone after, they chose to sacrafice their fighters attacking Pakistans regional rival in Afghanistan? I can't see how that makes sense.

    It raises the question, was this attack carried out to curry favour with the Pakistan authorities? The proximity of events and the choice of target in Kabul between them seems to suggest a definate linkage.

    Does anyone know who the "human rights activitis" were who took the timely petition against extradition to the high court in Lahore?

    Is this an early indication that Paksitans hithertoo disasterous foreign policy in Afghanistan is back on track?

    There had been claims that it was US/Pakistani co-operation organised the capture and interegation of the Taliban leaders, yet the second report claims the US has no access.

    We have seen in recent months, General Gul, ex-head of the Pakistani ISI, on TV claiming the Afghan Taliban cannot be defeated. Gul was also advisor to the Pakistan Taliban Council. Despite the recent violance it must be assumed he still has links to the Afghan Taliban, as he openly supported them. His claims have even been repeated on P.ie. The most recent attack in Kabul seems to suggest reciprocal support between the Pakistan authorities and the Afghan Taliban. It also puts establishment nationalists in Pakistan with Taliban links centre stage. Though Pakistan can it seems make military headway against the Taliban, has Asif Zadari finally come had to come to an accomdation with the hard liners in Islamabad with Taliban links? They can it seems deliver progress in Pakistans regional efforts.

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    Politics.ie Member Thac0man's Avatar
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    A report claiming proof of deep links between the Pakistani ISI and Taliban:

    BBC News - Pakistani agents 'funding and training Afghan Taliban'

    According to the Taliban:

    "I have no proof that Pakistan is supporting the Taliban," he told the BBC, "or that the ISI is providing money to them... or other support to provide weapons."
    Yet General Hamid Gul, ex-head of the ISI, was a very public advisor to the Pakistan Talibans supreme council. It a little late to disavow links now between the ISI and Taliban.

    The above reports claims point to the ISI acting as a shadow government in Pakistan, the Talibans voice amongst Pakistans political elites. The claim ultimitely is that Pakistans ISI is giving as much support as it ever did to the Taliban.

    This report, foreign in origin, comes shortly after reports from inside Pakistan claim the Pakistani Taliban are busy building fortifications in Punjab, a process that is being ignored by state officials.

    Its a distant comparison, but Russia proved that a secret agency like the FSB/KGB is capable of attaining and keeping power at all levels in society. Could the ISI, backed by the Pakistani Taliban perhaps represent an emerging new force capable of taking over the Pakistani state?

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    Politics.ie Member TheMushyStuff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thac0man View Post
    Could the ISI, backed by the Pakistani Taliban perhaps represent an emerging new force capable of taking over the Pakistani state?
    I highly doubt that is the case in Pakistan. There is only one force in Pakistan and that is the Military. They have controlled Pakistan for more that 60 year and they make about 60% it's GDP. They control the Nukes, the ISI and they created the Taliban. I say they are running this war on both side.
    “When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.” - Socrates

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    Politics.ie Member Thac0man's Avatar
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    Developments in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan seem to have taken a decisive turn.

    On the diplomatic front the recent frosting over of Pakistan/US relations has led Washington to more fully endorse Hamid Kazrai's claim that Pakistan is behind the insurgency in Afghanistan. During this drop in temperature between the US and Pakistan the Haquinni network has been cited as being a tool of Islamabads foreign policy. Apart from the recent killing of an ex-Afghan PM and peace mediator by the Haquinni network, Kabul now claims they are also behind a plot to kill Hamid Karzai:

    BBC News - Afghans say Karzai assassination plot foiled

    In the context of current relations and in light of Kabul and Washingtons assertions about the Haquinni network; this is a claim that Pakistan has tried to have the President of Afghanistan killed.

    This claim comes on the back of further developments in Afghanistans relations with India. Both countrys have signed business deals and are entering into co-operative agreements. Afghanistan is has made an effort to smooth over the Afghan/Indian pact with Islamabad; but it still amounts to a major shift in power and influence. Kabul is entering Indias orbit. What more can Paksitan do to rachet up the pressure on Karzai?

    BBC News - Karzai reaches out to Pakistan over India pact

    This strategic partnership... is not directed against any country... this strategic partnership is to support Afghanistan," President Karzai said during a lecture organised by an Indian think-tank on Wednesday. His two-day visit to India has been planned for months but it follows a series of attacks in recent weeks which have damaged ties between Kabul and India's rival, Pakistan.
    India is a major player in Afghanistan and has already pledged $2bn (£1.3bn) in assistance.
    In the 'Great Game' that seems to surround Afghanistan affairs, a decisive shift seems to have been made towards expanding Indian influence, at Pakistans expense. It does seem to be a case of Islambad, whose internal need for Afghan instability cannot be sated, having nothing more to offer by way of either friendship or threat towards Kabul.

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    Politics.ie Member Kevin Parlon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thac0man View Post
    Developments in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan seem to have taken a decisive turn.

    In the 'Great Game' that seems to surround Afghanistan affairs, a decisive shift seems to have been made towards expanding Indian influence, at Pakistans expense.
    I think the shift is tactical. If there's one thing to put the fear of bejay... I mean the fear of Mo into the Paks it would be to lose influence there to India. I half heard a report today where Karzai is said to have described India as a friend, but Pak as an estranged brother. If there is anywhere blood runs thicker than water it is in this benighted part of South Asia. I read it thus:

    Afghanistan: Stop trying to push onto the scene here, we want to control our own affairs.
    Pakistan: By Allah we will not let those filthy polytheists have control over our neighbour!
    A: Its OK, we won't allow it.
    P: We don't believe you. (Aside) Get me Mullah Haqqani on the phone.
    A: Are you sure you want to do that?
    P: Watch us
    A: Very well. (Aside) Get me Mr Singh on the phone.
    P: ........ Gulp.


    Quote Originally Posted by Thac0man View Post
    It does seem to be a case of Islambad, whose internal need for Afghan instability cannot be sated, having nothing more to offer by way of either friendship or threat towards Kabul.
    Yes, they seem to have had their bluff called on this one. In the end though, I think this is more tactical, than long term. I hope I am wrong. Pakistan's influence anywhere it is permitted to tread has been uniformly diabolical.
    "It is amazing how many people think that they can answer an argument by attributing bad motives to those who disagree with them." - Thomas Sowell

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    Politics.ie Member Thac0man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Parlon View Post
    Yes, they seem to have had their bluff called on this one. In the end though, I think this is more tactical, than long term. I hope I am wrong. Pakistan's influence anywhere it is permitted to tread has been uniformly diabolical.
    A very accurate summation of Pakistans malign influence. There are two factors I think that do indicate this deal with India is a long term and strategic development. Firstly there is money on the table from India, and alot of it. $1.2 billion is not a small sum of money for India to invest anywhere, or in a short term capacity.

    Secondly this investment and security deal with India comes on the back of a slew of killings of high level Afghan officials. Security chief Daoud Daoud and the presidents own brother being the first two in what has been a rapid build up of bodies amongst the Afghan body politic; apparently all dying at Islamabads hand.

    We are already at the point where Afghanistan is Pakistans only functioning land border. The current long term political environment is one of US withdrawel, which has implications. Pakistan will be without essential US financial backing while China and India now invest in Afghanistan, and on the basis of deals done, are investing heavily.

    What also maybe has to be factored in is that the Taliban will never win. No scenario where the Taliban can gain a inch in Afghanistan will mean more than increased terrorism or banditry in Afghanistan - not a recipe for victory. US withdrawel of troops from Afghanistan and an end to financial support for Pakistan will remove the degree of effective political immunity Islamabad has operated under thus far.

    As the US will not longer be a hostage of Islambads internal politics, we may expect to see increased diplomatic pressure on Islamabad. Afghanistan will have the one established Superpower to support them aswell as the two emerging ones, India and China. Pakistan is in such a wreched state that even though the emerging reality cannot have escaped Islamabads attention, Paksitans body politic seems powerless to do anything about it.

    Ever strategic Afghanistan may yet become master of not only its own destiny, but of Pakistans too. It is a deeply complex war, but increasingly all the indicators point to Islamabad being the ultimate loser.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMushyStuff View Post
    I highly doubt that is the case in Pakistan. There is only one force in Pakistan and that is the Military. They have controlled Pakistan for more that 60 year and they make about 60% it's GDP. They control the Nukes, the ISI and they created the Taliban. I say they are running this war on both side.
    The ISI is the top power base in the military in Pakistan. They are at the top of the military, and Pakistani politicians need to pander to them and defend them publically, or else they will be out of a job.

    The ISI definitely protects senior Taliban and Al-Qaeda members in Pakistan. No doubt trains and arms members from these groups and the Haqqani Network also.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Parlon View Post
    I hope I am wrong.
    Don't worry you are wrong. How could you possibly be right when you accredit the Afghan regime with even token autonomy from the US ?

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    They lost that war because of 80+ clans rising and co-operating. Yack-yacking about Pakistans influence doesn't change that fact.

    Next we'll be hearing the old Tehran chestnut.

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    Politics.ie Member Kevin Parlon's Avatar
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    Last edited by Kevin Parlon; 7th October 2011 at 02:24 AM.
    "It is amazing how many people think that they can answer an argument by attributing bad motives to those who disagree with them." - Thomas Sowell

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