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View Poll Results: Could FG win an overall majority after the next General Election?

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  • Yes

    217 43.57%
  • No

    281 56.43%
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Thread: Could Fine Gael win an overall majority?

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Regular
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    Default Could Fine Gael win an overall majority?

    I've spoken to a few politicos about Fine Gael over the past few days and there are growing concerns particularly within the Labour camp that Fine Gael could very well command an overall majority come the next General Election.

    What do you think? Is an FG overall majority possible?
    Last edited by David Cochrane; 15th January 2010 at 12:04 PM. Reason: Changed syntax of OP - the "concern" isn't mine - it's a concern within the Labour camp especially.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Newbie Enda the Mayo peasant's Avatar
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    I would say their ceiling is 65 seats. I can't see them winning 2 seats in most urban constituencies.

  3. #3

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    its possible, would be a heck of an achievement but on a good day with FF imploding it could be possible

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member LiberalFG's Avatar
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    Unfortunately no, we'll have to rely on bloody labour, or maybe a severely depleted and emasculated FF but we certainly won't gain 84 plus. Not a hope.

  5. #5
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    Yes FG could win an overall majority. However it might have to go negative quickly. Blaming Cowen for the financial disaster would be easy and would resonate with voters. FG also have a major liability in Enda Kenny and would have him maintain a very low profile. Buggins' Turn is not an excuse for being Taoiseach - as people have found with Cowen. FG would also have to decide not to settle for second best - a coalition with Labour.

    Regards...jmcc

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    I see at least 70. 76 is quite possible too.

    83 is not possible without another party or independents to support us. Unless Kenny and the Front Bench can swing public opinion it won't happen.

    Anything is possible between now and 2012 though.

    I'm wondering to see what happens now with the public sector. Will Labour be forced to support the action and could this lose them votes and bring them to FG who I doubt will support any strong industrial action?

  7. #7
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    FF and FG combined support has always been approx 2/3rds of the electorate.
    With FF massively unpopular and at 20%, FG are therefore hugely underperforming in the mid 30's.
    They should be flirting with mid 40's and making an overall majority very likely but they are not because they are a bunch of spineless kow towers who are merely happy at the prospect of leading a government instead of gambling on a once in a century landscape changing election.

    Listening to Varadkar and Nora Owen on VB the other night it is plain as day they are still petrified of the FF bogey man and fully expect FF to recover.

    The danger of this strategy is that the electorate will clock this cowardice and turn on them and we will end up with dozens of loony indos replacing FF'ers in many areas.

    FG need a few polls with Labour getting to within 2 or 3 points of them to scare them that they need to get off their arses and get ambitious instead of politely waiting for power.

    One thing for sure is that if FG aren't the biggest single party after the next GE, they can disband immediately because it woudl be game over given how much everything has fallen their way in the last 3 years.

    To answer the question.
    Yes, the math is there to make it possible with FF at 20ish but they just don't have the balls to baldly go for it.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member liamfoley's Avatar
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    Anyone for a FG minority govt? FF will have no stomach for govt. (they will be licking their wounds for at least one term) and they do not want to see some of their policies totally unraveled. Could FF have their version of a Tallagh Strategy?

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member KingKane's Avatar
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    It will definitely rest the resolve of those who follow the Frank Flannery mantra of if in doubt add one to the ticket.
    Dan Sullivan. I was back but we still couldn't all have a vote. http://www.danielsullivan.ie/blog/

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member Supermanpolitician's Avatar
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    Absolutely yes, with well managed voting strategies and hard work.

    But it willtake a huge effort and self belief. I know some in FG who have no doubt that FG can. Some of the more seasoned members are now finding this self belief that comes more easily to younger folks.

    There is an amazing confidence about the party, which was desparately lacking a mere 7 years ago.

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