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Thread: 2010 predictions

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    Default 2010 predictions

    Morning all,

    at this time of year, it's always fun and instructive to look forward and make a few predictions for the coming year - hopefully the kind of ones that can make you some money too .

    Here's mine, will be interesting to see what the informed posters on here think. I would be particularly interested to see the predictions of Dreaded Estate, kerrynorth, Cassandra Syndrome and mryoungdan.

    Irish economy:

    1. 'da Banks'; as the NAMA discounts deepen, defaults increase and need for further recapitalisations becomes ever more acute (and the total lack of market appetite for same) AIB will pass into majority state ownership quite quickly, certainly before the summer. BoI will suffer the same fate - although with a lesser degree of State ownership. Expect the government to use every trick in the book to avoid full-on nationalisation. Shares slump back to the 'penny stock' category.

    The EBS\PTSB\rump of INBS will consummate their 'third force' marriage.

    By any reckonable metric, the lie that NAMA 'will get credit flowing again' will be exposed for the drivel that it unquestionably is. The Squeeze continues unabated and existing customers are hit by greatly increased charges and margins.

    No criminal charges will be laid as a result of shenanigans at any Irish financial institution as the Great Anglo & INBS Cover-Ups continue to mask what really went on in these places.

    The NAMA business plan is torn up (as a work of fiction) and rewritten under heavy pressure from Brussels - the €54bn is revised down to less than €40bn.

    More than 5,000 people will be laid off by the Irish banks.

    2. Unemployment: Jan\Feb\Mar = meltdown in the domestic services (esp. hospitality) and retail sectors. We move past 500,000 on the Live Register by Easter and then stablise due to the mitigating effect of discouraged workers and emigration outflows\EEs returning home.

    3. Fiscal; Lenihan's bluster about turning the corner is exposed for the spin it is - tax receipts continue to fall and come in under 30bn for the year. Spending sees increases over the budget targets - driven by increased SW payments. The 2011 budget will be harsher and deeper than the one just past - we will require an adjustment of over €6bn just to stand still. Mini-budget in mid 2010 focusses on the revenue side of the equation and soaks the middle-class PAYE earner still further.

    4. Property: 2010 will be the year of free fall and active revulsion towards property as an asset class - 'Despair' on the Market Cycle of Emotions. Prices fall below 2001 levels. Tens of thousands of middle-class families go bust as their property 'investments' strangle them. Rent levels continue to plummet.

    5. Continued deflation; -3%

    6. Bond issuance; our spreads continue to widen as the black hole that is our banking sector continues to weigh on our ratings, we are downgraded further.

    Other Irish:

    1. Politics; the FF\Green coalition stays in power for the year. No election. Cowen increasingly viewed as a lame duck Taoiseach and Lenihan's position becomes ever stronger.

    2. Industrial relations: no meaningful PS strikes as the membership of the unions recognise the futility of same. Expect refusal to co-operate with reform agendas to be met by threats to pay - a deal will be done.

    3. other bits and pieces; Ireland win the Grand Slam again . Leinster and Munster contest the HC final . Bertie swallows a packet of truth serum and tells us all on The Late Late where the money really came from - Eoghan Harris says its unfair to blame him for this .

    Worldwide:

    1. Stock markets tumble as it becomes increasingly apparent that growth is not resuming at any pace. Dow goes sub 7500. Gold continues to march towards 1800.

    2. The Euro goes above parity with Sterling and hits 1.75 to the dollar.
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member Vega1447's Avatar
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    Default Get a grip, man

    An absurdly optimistic post...
    My Avatar is the FF logo INVERTED symbolising contempt for the FF Party and its members.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Newbie Gobuchul's Avatar
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    The irish economy finally turns the corner and forges ahead. Growth 10% +
    Unemployment rapidly returns to boom levels.
    VAT dropped to 0% but due to Lenihans much vaulted financial wizardry, vat receipts are up.
    Oil discovered in Ballymun.
    Listowel wins tidy town 2010.
    Ireland wins World cup due to technical rule infractions by all 32 nations attending in south africa.
    ?????

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member Marcos the black's Avatar
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    Tipp to win the All Ireland..
    You'll never go broke appealing to the lowest common denominator.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member Pauli's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcos the black View Post
    Tipp to win the All Ireland..
    Eh............Kilkenny will be looking to make history. And they probably will.
    Fianna Fail - The Loss of Sovereignty Party.

  6. #6
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    Could be some rain on the Western seaboard.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member Marcos the black's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauli View Post
    Eh............Kilkenny will be looking to make history. And they probably will.
    Only if they manage to buy another ref.....
    You'll never go broke appealing to the lowest common denominator.

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    GDP in 2010 -3.5%, Tax revenues to come in under €29.5billion as the deficit rises again to in excess of 15% of GDP. Another big budget in December equally hitting spending and taxation of at least another €4billion, and maybe more. Unemployment to rise to over 15%.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member redneck's Avatar
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    Strange diseases will hit Ireland. Bluetongue/cholera and so on.
    Boil order notices on the Western seaboard and maybe Dublin also.
    Tories win election in UK- but just fall short of majority. Minority Labour government struggles on.
    Power sharing in North collapses, fresh election brings in SDLP/DUP power sharing
    Good News:
    Unemployment falls
    Anglo 3 face trial.
    Galway and Tipp reach All Ireland hurling final
    Cork win football
    Spain V England world cup final, Spain win. England to host 2018 finals
    Ireland finally beat NZ in rugby.
    Pope and President visit Ireland

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member Digout's Avatar
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    Another budget in March to deal with the extra money needed for dole after the banks let thousands go, retail collapses and pubs and restaurants hit the wall.

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