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Thread: We need to stop large amounts of youth falling into unemployment

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    Politics.ie Member cyberianpan's Avatar
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    Default We need to stop large amounts of youth falling into unemployment

    A clear consequence of the current crisis is rising unemployment

    It is very likely that recent college & school leavers are being disproportionately affected, the Live Register (a blunt instrument) shows increases as greatest in the sub 35 year old category

    Looking at the Quarterly National Household Survey for say males we see a worrying pattern:

    Code:
    		15-19	20-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-59	60-64
    							
    Apr-Jun2003	15.8	8.1	5.2	3.9	3.6	2.9	*
    Apr-Jun2009	40.0	30.2	18.0	12.3	10.4	7.7	8.0
    Clearly unemployment is sky rocketing in the youth. However youth are affected differently by unemployment.

    David Blanchflower, a very eminent economist was in Dublin recently and his presentation was insightful.

    Slide 37
    The Consequences of Youth Unemployment
    In a recent paper, David Bell of the University of Stirling and I, found that
    youth unemployment is especially harmful and creates scars
    • We used data from the UK 1958 (3rd -9th March) birth cohort the National
    Child Development Study (NCDS).
    • Youth unemployment while young (≤ age 23) raises unemployment, lowers
    wages, worsens health and lowers job satisfaction
    • No such effects could be found for spells of unemployment when the
    respondents were in their thirties
    • The effects continued into middle age when the respondents were in their
    late forties.
    So clearly youth unemployment leads to irreversible damage to a large proportion of those unemployed. In simple terms Ireland has been investing in the human capital of these youth since birth: welfare, children's benefit, health and especially education.

    Now we risk these assets being devalued, just as they were due to start producing. Not merely will their future worth be diminished - they may even turn to crime !

    We need to consider intervening, as per this Irish Economy post on the topic Fás is a joke, at its best it may cater for construction workers
    However, those who argue that active intervention in the Irish labour market is counter-productive will be given further credence by the reports on the FAS Work Experience Programme. If the Times is correct, it is very likely that this has flopped and is currently under review.
    Also see

    Irish Times - No country for young men

    According to two reports this week, young Irish people - and men in particular - are bearing the brunt of the recession, with potentially devastating effects on their lives and the economy. Members of the so-called 'lost generation' discuss their plight. CARL O'BRIEN, Chief Reporter

    THEY’RE BRIGHT and they’re eager – but they’re also unwanted.
    ...
    Leading labour economist Prof David Blanchflower has made headlines in the UK in recent times, warning of a “lost generation” of young people unless the British government moved swiftly to tackle the crisis. Visiting Dublin this week, his message was just as stark. He pointed to research in Britain which found that people who were unemployed in their mid-20s were more likely to be unemployed, have lower health and generate a lower wage later in life.
    ...
    There is no time to waste, says Brian Mooney,...

    “Unless you find work, your skills deteriorate within a few months,” he says. “So if a young person has left college or the construction industry and is out of work for a year, you’re going backwards. Your skills, morale and self-esteem all take a hit.”
    Philip Lane makes clear here why a classical Keynsian stimulus for Ireland is not appropriate

    However what can we do for the young unemployed ?

    Clearly an investment here could save us future fiscal loss , and stave off a reduction in nett human capital. Any ideas ?

    cYp
    Last edited by cyberianpan; 11th November 2009 at 02:53 AM.
    "Yawn , am I alive yet ?"

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    Send them to Britain to train in the Royal Army,and navy,so they can serve the Crown
    Last edited by BlackWatch; 11th November 2009 at 02:55 AM.

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    Politics.ie Member Hazlitt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyberianpan View Post
    ..what can we do for the young unemployed ?
    The minimum wage must be scrapped - at the very least significantly lowered. This is the single major barrier restricting young people from working.

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    Employ them at min wage for hard labour building the resevoirs for the spirit of ireland thing or have a years national service and they get a 10k bonus at end as well as SW

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    Politics.ie Member cyberianpan's Avatar
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    Personally I'd be willing to consider some sort of Keynsian stimulus / make-work programme for this segment

    Potential problems would be that it would
    A) Not be fit for purpose
    B) Fall foul of EU state aid/ competition rules
    C) Funding: however I think bond investors could be persuaded

    Anyone any bright ideas ... e.g. subsidize new MNC jobs ?


    cYp
    "Yawn , am I alive yet ?"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hazlitt View Post
    The minimum wage must be scrapped - at the very least significantly lowered. This is the single major barrier restricting young people from working.
    Energy costs and commercial rents should come down first. Oh hang on that would affect the Land/Property Owner(FF) and the ESB workers' pay rises(PS), 70k-80k is not enough clearly. Anyway They need to come down first of all before we screw the workers who actually are on the minimum wage again. That lot have it tough enough already.

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    Politics.ie Member nonpartyboy's Avatar
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    Deport all the non eu nationals who's visas expire and the overstayers, how many chinese and
    'asian" "students" must be working here illegally for a start ?That will leave plenty of jobs empty.

    Deport all failed asylum seekers, if nothing it will save the state a fortune and free up a few taxis jobs.

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    Politics.ie Member cyberianpan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EUrJokingMeRight View Post
    Energy costs and commercial rents should come down first. Oh hang on that would affect the Land/Property Owner(FF) and the ESB workers' pay rises(PS), 70k-80k is not enough clearly. Anyway They need to come down first of all before we screw the workers who actually are on the minimum wage again. That lot have it tough enough already.
    Hazlitt's minimum wage idea could be construed as targeted at the youth, as clearly being labour market entrants, they would expect to be at the lower end of the wage spectrum

    Your idea is a little too general as it appertains to all economic sectors

    Quote Originally Posted by Hazlitt View Post
    The minimum wage must be scrapped - at the very least significantly lowered. This is the single major barrier restricting young people from working.
    I agree that the minimum wage is a barrier to certain segments of the youth, however many new entrant college graduates were earning not too far from minimum wage anyway ... and it is clear the rise in unemployment is of staggering order.... so a modest wage adjustment, whilst welcome, would only prove a partial solution

    I think we may need to look at diverting dole funding also...

    cYp
    "Yawn , am I alive yet ?"

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    Quote Originally Posted by cyberianpan View Post
    Personally I'd be willing to consider some sort of Keynsian stimulus / make-work programme for this segment

    Potential problems would be that it would
    A) Not be fit for purpose
    B) Fall foul of EU state aid/ competition rules
    C) Funding: however I think bond investors could be persuaded

    Anyone any bright ideas ... e.g. subsidize new MNC jobs ?

    cYp
    Would also fall foul of state aid rules, unless you're Germany and its Opel.

    I'm glad you raised this.

    A bit late tonight to produce the plan to get Ireland working, but one thing that is straightforward with unemployed school and college leavers is to keep them in high quality education and training. We have a lot of people doing nothing, and a mass programme of language learning could mean that in five years time we have a young population with a greatly raised range of foreign language skills. Literacy in English and maths could be raised too. We are still being told that we don't have enough people with good IT qualifications and skills. There are unfilled places on these courses: there is a much overdue need to get people into them and to upskill our IT workforce generally.

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    Politics.ie Member cyberianpan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by eyeswideopen View Post
    Would also fall foul of state aid rules, unless you're Germany and its Opel.

    I'm glad you raised this.

    A bit late tonight to produce the plan to get Ireland working, but one thing that is straightforward with unemployed school and college leavers is to keep them in high quality education and training. We have a lot of people doing nothing, and a mass programme of language learning could mean that in five years time we have a young population with a greatly raised range of foreign language skills. Literacy in English and maths could be raised too. We are still being told that we don't have enough people with good IT qualifications and skills. There are unfilled places on these courses: there is a much overdue need to get people into them and to upskill our IT workforce generally.

    It could... actually that reminds me

    One of teh few expansionary areas on our economy are these:

    EMEA service centers

    Basically operations centers of US companies that either service clients (e.g. Google) or internal needs (e.g. Pfizer)

    Obviosuly this work is at long term threat to lower cost destinations... but personally I've noticed in the "new media"/internet field we are building up an unassailable critical mass ... e..g. Google, Facebook, Pokerkings, eBay etc ...

    Not greatly paid jobs... though that should remind us the IFSC wasn't at first and now say Funds Admin commands a hefty premium...

    But the "new media" is a new area of expertise that will in time grow... obviously languages would aid (there's over 50 nationalities in Google alone now)

    However this is an area where Fás has been involved in some of its worse frauds (sickening stuff where they contract people who haven't a clue to give very expensive courses)

    I think it's worth setting up a dedicated training agency in this area (and beat Fás off if their heavies try to muscle in to get a slice of the pie)

    cYp
    "Yawn , am I alive yet ?"

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