Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 34

Thread: China - a bubble or new world leader

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    89
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default China - a bubble or new world leader

    The conventional wisdom is that China is the world power in waiting, and that it's workers are effectively slaves due to the low value of their currency and other factors, well it's starting to look like they're actually in a dangerous bubble that will collapse due to their mercantalist policies,

    FT.com / Markets / Insight - China is heading for a Japan-style bubble

    what do people think?
    Google Reader great for following blogs


    http://libertyireland.wordpress.com

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    the wesht
    Posts
    1,231
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cd27 View Post
    The conventional wisdom is that China is the world power in waiting, and that it's workers are effectively slaves due to the low value of their currency and other factors, well it's starting to look like they're actually in a dangerous bubble that will collapse due to their mercantalist policies,

    FT.com / Markets / Insight - China is heading for a Japan-style bubble

    what do people think?
    Check out the book 'the next hundred years' by George Friedman. very interesting bit on the chinese economy- it has the characteristics of all tiger economies built not on profitability but cashflow and basically a bubble. he predicts that they will follow japan and us into a bust. the most interesting thing he highlights is that in these countries its who rather than what you know that matters in business.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member dunno's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    1,279
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    There are a lot of small protests against local bosses seizing farms and other property. It it is a bubble that bursts, there will an outbreak of anger against the Communists.

  4. #4

    Default

    After the bubble bursts the Chinese economy will grow again.
    China has just experienced the largest industrial expansion in all of human history lifting tens of millions of out of grinding poverty in the middle classes.
    Having tasted consumerism, Chinese consumers are going to want more fueling further growth in the future.
    Eventually the mantle of communism is going to be outgrown.
    To have a freer economy it is inevitable that the Chinese political system will be forced to liberalise.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    89
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    thanks
    Google Reader great for following blogs


    http://libertyireland.wordpress.com

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member Chrisco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    3,824
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by cd27 View Post
    The conventional wisdom is that China is the world power in waiting, and that it's workers are effectively slaves due to the low value of their currency and other factors, well it's starting to look like they're actually in a dangerous bubble that will collapse due to their mercantalist policies,

    FT.com / Markets / Insight - China is heading for a Japan-style bubble

    what do people think?
    Where precisely is it held as conventional wisdom that Chinese workers are effectively slaves?

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    the wesht
    Posts
    1,231
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dunno View Post
    There are a lot of small protests against local bosses seizing farms and other property. It it is a bubble that bursts, there will an outbreak of anger against the Communists.
    this is most likely true. In the book referenced in my first post the author predicts the breakup of the PR into the provinces that existed before. even now there is a divide between the richer coastal areas and the very poor rural provinces. he also said that cities like Shanghai will end up in conflict with Beijing over regulation of business.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    the wesht
    Posts
    1,231
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DickTurpin1789 View Post
    After the bubble bursts the Chinese economy will grow again.
    China has just experienced the largest industrial expansion in all of human history lifting tens of millions of out of grinding poverty in the middle classes.
    Having tasted consumerism, Chinese consumers are going to want more fueling further growth in the future.
    Eventually the mantle of communism is going to be outgrown.
    To have a freer economy it is inevitable that the Chinese political system will be forced to liberalise.
    the chinese economy like our own is very reliant on exports and if the demand dies for these exports then the bubble might not reinflate too quickly. also for all the middle class success stories there are many chinese that remain in grinding poverty with little hope of an improvement which could lead to conflict eventually.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member Thac0man's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Kildare/Dublin
    Posts
    6,475
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I saw a piece on Al Jezeera about this two days ago. It seems under direction from the government, banks are to lend to pretty much anyone who asks for money. Interesting to see how that works out come the due day for loans. It smacks a bit of sub-prime lending, though no one seems willing to mention that word. Ontop of that there is also massive government subvention of industry. Despite all this, domestic consumer confidence in China is still not great.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    1,818
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    They are still decades behind the Western world but have improved massively in recent years. Their GDP will continue to grow far above the world average.
    Their labour is still very cheap so they will continue to generate investment from MNC’s and through the state.

Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •