Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 87

Thread: Cork East Update

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Newbie
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    2
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Cork East Update

    Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

    While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member Podolski's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Cork
    Posts
    104
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Cork East

    An interesting one. Linehan-Foley is a member of Youghal Town Council and I think the only other Youghal candidate is Sandra McClellan (SF). (I'm assuming that the PD's aren't running Flavin who ran for them previously).

    It would be silly for O'Keeffe to behind this because he's not seriously under threat, definitely not from Ahern. Surely FF want to retain two seats. If FF are behind it then it's probably to hit McClellan by introducing another Youghal based woman candidate. Personally I think it will be O'Keeffe, Sherlock with Ahern, Stanton and Bradford fighting for seats. There will be 1 Fine Gael seat but I think it will be Bradford, not Stanton. The latter will have to fight it out with Ahern.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    KERRY
    Posts
    1,525
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Cork East Update

    Quote Originally Posted by east
    Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

    While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
    Cork East along with North Central are the 2 constituencies I will be looking on the day to see as to how many seats FF will lose. If they lose in East it would be a very bad day probably pointing to 15+ seat loses. Not likely to happen on the basis of present opinion polls though.

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    46,558
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Cork East Update

    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth

    Cork East along with North Central are the 2 constituencies I will be looking on the day to see as to how many seats FF will lose. If they lose in East it would be a very bad day probably pointing to 15+ seat loses. Not likely to happen on the basis of present opinion polls though.

    The Cork East poll a couple of months ago had FG taking the Labour seat, and the two FF's looking fairly solid. But FG/Labour had about 23,000 votes here last time, against 19,000 for FF - so if even a couple of thousand FF votes slipped to the Independent, they could indeed be in a spot of bother.
    "So how are things at the Campaign for the Freedom of Information, by the way?" "Sorry, I can't talk about that"

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Newbie
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    2
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    O'Keeffe has no time for Ahern and is just out to cause trouble for the Junior Minister.

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member Eirenua's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
    Posts
    280
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Cork East

    There is no doubt that Ahern is in trouble. It is very true that he is not liked in my home town, Midleton or in Youghal. A popular independent candidate will create havoc for Ahern but unfortunatly O'Keeffe's transfers will carry Aherne over the Line, again.
    There are Men, there are Women and there are Politicians. God save old Ireland

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Dept. of FutureTaoiseach
    Posts
    7,992
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Cork East Update

    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth
    Quote Originally Posted by east
    Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

    While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
    Cork East along with North Central are the 2 constituencies I will be looking on the day to see as to how many seats FF will lose. If they lose in East it would be a very bad day probably pointing to 15+ seat loses. Not likely to happen on the basis of present opinion polls though.
    Oh dear in spite of a spate of polls discounting it and the internal civil-war within FG, the Blueshirts are still living in "FF loses 15 seats" cloud-cuckoo land.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member Eirenua's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
    Posts
    280
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    A 15 seat loss for FF is not impossible, but not to FG's advantage. I am undecided as to who I will be voting for but I am certain that I will not be voting for Ahern. My prediction for Cork East is:

    1 O'Keeffe @26%

    2 Stanton @ 23%

    3 Bradford @ 19%

    4 Ahern @ 15%

    The transfer of O'Keeffe's surplus coupled with Linehan Foley's transfers will drag Aherne over the line against Sherlock Jnr
    There are Men, there are Women and there are Politicians. God save old Ireland

  9. #9

    Default Cork east

    How can one predict the outcome if all the candidates are not declared. How can one reasonably assume the percentage of each candidates votes when all the votes, valid poll and quota have not been determined. I am afraid that you are being premature

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Posts
    107
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Cork East Update

    Quote Originally Posted by east
    Just got confirmation that FF Councillor Mary Linehan Foley is running as an Independent in cork east. She was beaten at the convention but has been encouraged to run as an independent by FF TD Ned O'Keeffe, if only to see his rival Michael Ahern taken out. Everyone knows there is no love lost between O'Keeffe and Ahern ans as O'Keeffe will never be appointed a Minister again, he has nothing to gain by bringing Ahern in with his surplus.

    While Linehan Foley won't be elected, she along with SF's Sandra Mc Lellan (9% in recent poll) could do enough damage to oust Ahern. While Ahern has a strong base in Carrigtowhil, he is not very popular in Youghal or Midleton of late. My prediction is that O'Keeffe, Bradford & Stanton for FG and Sean Sherlock for LB will now take the seats.
    If this is true, it makes John Deasy sound like Mary Poppins.

    A FF TD conniving to unseat his running mate using an "Indep" candidate as his stooge in the process.

    Doubtless we won't be spared the sanctimonius bleatings of thegeneral in order to explain this one.

Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •