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Thread: 2006 : How was it for them?

  1. #1
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    Default 2006 : How was it for them?

    So looking back at the past twelve mopnths, which or our parties have done best?

    My ratings;

    Fianna Fail : Started the year averaging 35%, ended averaging 40%.
    It hasn't been without its troubles; a 31% poll rating in May, "Mr. A", "Bertiegate", the Moriarty verdict on Haughey and arguably an unimaginative and overly telegrapheded budget not giving the boost that it should, but all in all it was a good year for FF. For me the most significant period was during Bertiegate when people, faced with the thought of losing Ahern as Taoiseach, rallied behind him. Now any government that does not include FF is almost unthinkable. 8/10

    Fine Gael : Stated the year averaging 26%, ended averaging 24%. Remarkably, back in May, they were with 3 points of FF and looked like a real alternative in waiting, but allowing populist policies like ending compulsory Irish Gaelic and neurality drift away and then failing to get any mud to stick to the "Teflon Taoiseach" make at least five more years in opposition look all but inevitable. the question is can a party that hasn't been put into power for over a quarter of a century really call themselves a "national party" for much longer? 4/10

    Labour : Started the year averaging 13%, ended averaging 11%. If things have been bad for FG, then they have arguably been worse for the country's oldest political party. Slow but steady decline in the polls, internal discord about the Mulliongar accord and a core support in single figures in several polls, 1992 seems a lifetime away, and yet we could be just months away from the second FF/Labour government. 3/10

    Progressive Democrats : Started the year averaging 3%, ended averaging 4%. A not fully unforced change of leadership, crisis after cris in Health, rising crime statistics. the fall-guys in "Bertiegate", the unfulfilled Stamp Duty promises and falling out with the judiciary, could it really have been much worse? Time really does appear to be running out for the PDs but will the threat of having Labour in government muster their support? 3/10

    The Greens : started the year on 5%, ended on 6%. A lacklustre year but at least none of the foot shooting of 2005 and (especially) 2004. Threathened to break out of their little niche in the summer, but slow decline since. Not being attached to either of the coialition options may mean they get squeezed come May. Awkward times may lay ahead. 5/10

    Sinn Féin : Started the year averaging 10%, ended averaging 8%. Like FG, the bright days of 2004, look long since past. Then they looked as if they were about to displace Labour as the third party in the state, but who would see that happening today, even given Labour's problems? Still being kept at arm's distance from the political mainstream in this country and if no major beneficial headlines start coming out of Northern Ireland, then it's hard to see a major breakthrough being made. That's not to say that a doubling of the TD count isn't on the cards, thanks to FF and FG troubles in Donegal and the northside of Dublin. 4/10
    My dogma was run over by my karma. Economic Left/Right: 2.00
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.03

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    FF, who are now almost defeat-proof for the next election.

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    Socialist Party

    Good year all round. Increased membership and expanded the party into new areas. Joe Higgins gave a strong performance in the Dail and, despite what a handful of critics here suggest, will be back again. Clare Daly now has an excellent chance of winning at the next election. Mick Barry and Mick Murphy will also poll strongly and punters shouldn't bet against the SP having more than 2 seats.

    Outside the Dail the SP made significant impact in a number of fields. Strong support and participation in the Rossport campaign and against the attempts by Limerick County Council to browbeat the residents of Pallaskenry/Kildimo into accpeting a polluted water supply. SP members lead the fight against the privatisation of Aer Lingus, a battle not yet concluded. Spearheaded a campaign in Dublin against Management fees. Growing support for SP ideas within the trade unions. Leading the campaign against water charges in the North. The publication of the DVD and Pamplet on the GAMA strike was an important development showing how the explotiation of migrantworkers can be stopped in conjunction with the protection of employment rights for Irish workers.

    Internationally there were also important developments. Sister parties of the SP had important electoral results in Germany, England, Holland, Australia and Sri Lanka. Members in Belgium lead the way in the campaign to form a new workers party and members in Brazil played an important role in the establishment of PSOL (a left wing breakaway from President Lula's Workers Party. Members played leading roles in largescale strikes in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakstan. Significant growth occurred in the sister party in Nigeria and in Sri Lanka the United Socialist Party is now the leading left party in a country that has a strong tradition of left wing politics.

    Roll on 2007.

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    its hard to know where to start picking holes in your analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Fine Gael: Stated the year averaging 26%, ended averaging 24%.
    Labour : Started the year averaging 13%, ended averaging 11%
    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Slow but steady decline in the polls, internal discord about the Mulliongar accord
    1) keith both of these "falls" in fg/labour are within the margin of error

    2) there has been no "slow but steady decline" in support for labour. it went between 11% and 14% consistently.

    3) there is no "internal discord" about the pact with fine gael. the only (ONLY) labour TD, Senator, or candidate to openly criticise it was aidan culhane (dublin south) - and i dont think that amounts to very much.

    and i have to say apart from the sudden (and still unexplained) supsurge in ff support in october, the biggest eye-opener in terms of polling was the tns/mrbi (irish times) survey in may which showed a startling increase in support for fine gael and labour directly at ff expense.

    the significant thing about this was that it didnt seem to have been caused by any government ************************-up.......but rather it was that the public were impressed by what they saw/heard at the fg and labour ard fheises (eg. kennys ideas on bail, sentencing, wet rooms etc)

    i have a suspicion that the boost in ff support is VERY shallow indeed and that if fg/labour can pull off a series of similar stunts in the new year and lead the debate on providing policy and real solutions that they can do the same again

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Now any government that does not include FF is almost unthinkable
    keith you may jinx them yet!! certainties in politics are very dangerous things

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    the question is can a party that hasn't been put into power for over a quarter of a century really call themselves a "national party" for much longer?
    keith thats nonsense. a party which gets 25% of the national vote (and 35% of the vote outside dublin) will always be a national party regardless of whether its in government

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Time really does appear to be running out for the PDs but will the threat of having Labour in government muster their support? 3/10
    2006 has been an INCREDIBLE disaster for the progressive democrats. even the most optimistic fine gael strategist would find it hard not to be absolutely shocked by the cock-ups, policy u-turns, internicene warfare, indeciciveness, public relations disasters and pathetic poll ratings that have hit the pds this year.

    heres hoping 2007 brings more of the same! 0/10 !

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    oh and by the way......the shinners had a bad year too. were it not for the stormont snooze-fest they would have been almost as irrelevant as the pds

    and their poll ratings at year end are the only party which justifies being GENUINELY worried

    they've gone from a consistent 11/12% a year and a half ago to being a consistent 7/8% now

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    Quote Originally Posted by rover
    its hard to know where to start picking holes in your analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Fine Gael: Stated the year averaging 26%, ended averaging 24%.
    Labour : Started the year averaging 13%, ended averaging 11%
    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Slow but steady decline in the polls, internal discord about the Mulliongar accord
    1) keith both of these "falls" in fg/labour are within the margin of error
    Theses aren't single polls, across all polling companies there has been a steady decline in support for FG and Labour over th past six months. This isn't "margin of error" stuff.

    2) there has been no "slow but steady decline" in support for labour. it went between 11% and 14% consistently.
    Only one poll in the second half of the year (Red C in Sept) has Lab above 12%. There has been a slow but steady decline in the support for the party through the year. Today most pollsters are showing their core support in single figures.

    3) there is no "internal discord" about the pact with fine gael. the only (ONLY) labour TD, Senator, or candidate to openly criticise it was aidan culhane (dublin south) - and i dont think that amounts to very much.
    When a potential future leader like Howlin undemines it at every opportunity, then you know that the resentment is much deeper than one man. Culhane may be brave/stupid enough to play his cards openly, but he isn't short of support within the party.

    and i have to say apart from the sudden (and still unexplained) supsurge in ff support in october, the biggest eye-opener in terms of polling was the tns/mrbi (irish times) survey in may which showed a startling increase in support for fine gael and labour directly at ff expense.
    The increase in FF support isn't unexplained, as I posted earlier, it was when he public were forced with the real prospect of losing Ahern as Taoiseach, then they showed thrir true feelings. That's ominous for the opposition.

    i have a suspicion that the boost in ff support is VERY shallow indeed and that if fg/labour can pull off a series of similar stunts in the new year and lead the debate on providing policy and real solutions that they can do the same again
    They're rapidly runing out of time. Stunts like this need to be rolled out if they are not to appear staged.

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    the question is can a party that hasn't been put into power for over a quarter of a century really call themselves a "national party" for much longer?
    keith thats nonsense. a party which gets 25% of the national vote (and 35% of the vote outside dublin) will always be a national party regardless of whether its in government
    Since 2002, FG is the sixth biggest party in Dublin and they have no representation in several constituencies ouside the capital. Is that meeting the criteria for a "national party"?

    On a more broader note, FG's main source of attraction in the past is that it wasn't FF. People could have the same populist centrist policies without having to vote for the likes of DeValera or Haughey, who were always divisive characters.

    Also in an underperforming country where the public like to throw out governments at every opportunity then FG could sit on their hands and wait for "their turn" in government.

    Today, FF are led by the most popular Taoiseach Ireland has ever had and with the country finally reaching its potential then the idea of throwing out a government loses its appeal.

    Very soon half of the electorate will not have voted in a general election where FG were put into government. The aging heads with ministerial experience are disappearing. In that scenario FF have to f*** up big time to give FG a chance. It could happen, but I wouldn't be making bets.
    My dogma was run over by my karma. Economic Left/Right: 2.00
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.03

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    more and more inaccuracies. by he way its good to have you back. while you were gone it was tiresom having just futuremoron being the only poster who filled their posts with lies

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    When a potential future leader like Howlin undemines it at every opportunity, then you know that the resentment is much deeper than one man
    yer wha?! can you show us ONE example of howlin criticising the pact? let alone "every opportunity"....

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Since 2002, FG is the sixth biggest party in Dublin and they have no representation in several constituencies ouside the capital. Is that meeting the criteria for a "national party"?
    you see keith, this is classic cherrypicking. you give your own interpretation of the polls above (which i suppose is fair enough) but then ignore the blindingly obvious here

    1) fine gael was not the 6th party in terms of votes in 2002. they were 3rd

    2) most redc and mrbi polls in the last 2 years (barring 1 or 2) have had fine gael as the 2nd party in dublin. perhaps you missed that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rover
    more and more inaccuracies. by he way its good to have you back. while you were gone it was tiresom having just futuremoron being the only poster who filled their posts with lies

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    When a potential future leader like Howlin undemines it at every opportunity, then you know that the resentment is much deeper than one man
    yer wha?! can you show us ONE example of howlin criticising the pact? let alone "every opportunity"....
    Every single time Howlin has been asked about Labour's options after the election he clearly and unequivically refuses to rule out a deal with FF.

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM
    Since 2002, FG is the sixth biggest party in Dublin and they have no representation in several constituencies ouside the capital. Is that meeting the criteria for a "national party"?
    you see keith, this is classic cherrypicking. you give your own interpretation of the polls above (which i suppose is fair enough) but then ignore the blindingly obvious here

    1) fine gael was not the 6th party in terms of votes in 2002. they were 3rd
    As you well know, party ranking is done on seats won rather than votes. Run enough candidates and you can get more votes, getting elected is the whole point of an election.

    2) most redc and mrbi polls in the last 2 years (barring 1 or 2) have had fine gael as the 2nd party in dublin. perhaps you missed that?
    Also as you (should) well know, when you work on the sample sizes in these polls (usually around 1000 people) you do not get a very accurate reflection of regional opinion. Countly 300-400 people for the whole of Dublin creats such a margin of error as to make the poll all but useless.

    Given Labour's current horrors, I wouldn't be surprised to see FG overtake them in the public vote in Dublin, but given that FG were the largest party in Dublin 20 year ago, this is hardly something to celebrate.
    My dogma was run over by my karma. Economic Left/Right: 2.00
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.03

  9. #9
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    Default Reeling in the years

    Quote Originally Posted by KeithM View Post
    So looking back at the past twelve mopnths, which or our parties have done best?

    My ratings;

    Fianna Fail : Started the year averaging 35%, ended averaging 40%.
    It hasn't been without its troubles; a 31% poll rating in May, "Mr. A", "Bertiegate", the Moriarty verdict on Haughey and arguably an unimaginative and overly telegrapheded budget not giving the boost that it should, but all in all it was a good year for FF. For me the most significant period was during Bertiegate when people, faced with the thought of losing Ahern as Taoiseach, rallied behind him. Now any government that does not include FF is almost unthinkable. 8/10

    Fine Gael : Stated the year averaging 26%, ended averaging 24%. Remarkably, back in May, they were with 3 points of FF and looked like a real alternative in waiting, but allowing populist policies like ending compulsory Irish Gaelic and neurality drift away and then failing to get any mud to stick to the "Teflon Taoiseach" make at least five more years in opposition look all but inevitable. the question is can a party that hasn't been put into power for over a quarter of a century really call themselves a "national party" for much longer? 4/10

    Labour : Started the year averaging 13%, ended averaging 11%. If things have been bad for FG, then they have arguably been worse for the country's oldest political party. Slow but steady decline in the polls, internal discord about the Mulliongar accord and a core support in single figures in several polls, 1992 seems a lifetime away, and yet we could be just months away from the second FF/Labour government. 3/10

    Progressive Democrats : Started the year averaging 3%, ended averaging 4%. A not fully unforced change of leadership, crisis after cris in Health, rising crime statistics. the fall-guys in "Bertiegate", the unfulfilled Stamp Duty promises and falling out with the judiciary, could it really have been much worse? Time really does appear to be running out for the PDs but will the threat of having Labour in government muster their support? 3/10

    The Greens : started the year on 5%, ended on 6%. A lacklustre year but at least none of the foot shooting of 2005 and (especially) 2004. Threathened to break out of their little niche in the summer, but slow decline since. Not being attached to either of the coialition options may mean they get squeezed come May. Awkward times may lay ahead. 5/10

    Sinn Féin : Started the year averaging 10%, ended averaging 8%. Like FG, the bright days of 2004, look long since past. Then they looked as if they were about to displace Labour as the third party in the state, but who would see that happening today, even given Labour's problems? Still being kept at arm's distance from the political mainstream in this country and if no major beneficial headlines start coming out of Northern Ireland, then it's hard to see a major breakthrough being made. That's not to say that a doubling of the TD count isn't on the cards, thanks to FF and FG troubles in Donegal and the northside of Dublin. 4/10
    I think its worth digging up this 4 year old thread to remember ireland in 2006.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bridget558 View Post
    I think its worth digging up this 4 year old thread to remember ireland in 2006.
    Nope its not and given you weren't even a member it shows immaturity.

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