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Thread: Baltic Dry Index Plummets again

  1. #1

    Default Baltic Dry Index Plummets again

    The BDI is respected as a leading indicator for the stock market. As a measure of shipping costs it is an excellent measure of world trade. The index is over 80% down from its peak last year, but did increase of its lows at the beginning of this year to reach 4300 in June. It has now halved since then as China pulls back on importing.

    Baltic Dry is signalling new pullback in the stock market - City AM
    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” - Friedrich A. Hayek

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    Yet, people still talk about the global economy starting to recover. People are absolutely deluded, if they believe that the excess of the last 15 years, can be worked through in such a short time.
    Newsflash people declining global trade is not a sign of recovery, esp. not a 4.5% drop in a week.
    Fianna Fáil
    The Land agents party.

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    It recovered for a while because so little was shipped last year that people needed to rebuild a minimum level of stock.

    Most of the "green shoots" bolloxology you've been hearing has been down to companies rebuilding stocks after running them right down to the bone over the last year. Stuff still isn't selling though.

    As someone above said, we built up huge imbalances over the last 15 years that those in charge are desperately trying to prented don't actually exist.

    Things won't get better for real until these issues are actually tackled. But the generation in charge almost everywhere prefer fairy stories, comfort blankies and bluster to actually rolling up the sleeves and tackling real issues.

    IIRC the phrase in the US for the generation that fought WWII was "the Greatest Generation". The generation in charge right now though - 45-60 in most countries - are unquestionably "the Worst Generation", ever. Bunchy of weasely little shysters and conmen, the lot of them. We need a revolution, everywhere, bringing to power fresh Governments with a nice mix of good old-fashioned sense from the elder generations with the modern technical know-how and international experience (and bitter experience of just how badly the current generation have made a complete hames of things) of the 30-45 year olds.
    Soul almost completely worn through

  4. #4

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    Down another 3.1% to 2175 today. Good article here about it being a very well respected leading indicator.

    Baltic Dry Index Tells the Real Economic Story -- Seeking Alpha
    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” - Friedrich A. Hayek

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cassandra Syndrome View Post
    Down another 3.1% to 2175 today. Good article here about it being a very well respected leading indicator.

    Baltic Dry Index Tells the Real Economic Story -- Seeking Alpha
    Unlike most of the financial media, which is a lagging indicator.....

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    Unemployment stability is the only thing that counts, nothing else (although the shipping index is important as an indicator).

    You cannot talk about 'growth' while people are still being let go.

    There has been a failure in a lot of countries to break the cycle of job layoffs leading to declining demand, leading to further job layoffs.

    If demand falls, the economy usually goes one way.

    And I include demand for houses in that. The lack of demand for houses has lead to a lot of construction workers being laid off.

    Declining demand equals job losses. Unless governments intervene to shore up or save jobs, no economy can do well. Green shoots only really arise when demand picks up. You cannot have green shoots in a vacuam as Brian Lenihan or Brian Cowen would have us believe. Clearly they don't understand economics and the fundamental importance of demand to growth. Companies that produce without demand merely increase their inventory.

    This time around I don't see economies bottoming out. I see them heading south indefinitely.

    What probably ultimately saved the economic world after the Great Depression was re-arnament in Europe, Asia and the US leading to full employment. A similar scheme would be needed today to get a lot of people back to work.

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    Small little article in FT today about it, market opinion stuff from some talking head.

    He says the fall in the BDI is down to China's reduced demand for commodities, they being stockpiled to the hilt now.

  8. #8

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    Sorry for not updating this for a few days. Nothing has changed its still in the 2100s. Here's a article refering to it and to the myriad of other fundemental data in the US that highlights the hyperbole nonsense of this recovery talk.

    Why This Isn't a Recovery -- Seeking Alpha
    “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.” - Friedrich A. Hayek

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    Cassie I have been banging on about the BDI and unemployment ,for months on this site to accountants and friends of mine.They don't want to know,they believe the Dow ,Naz,Ftse casino, media hacks are the real indicators .
    Quote Originally Posted by Cassandra Syndrome View Post
    The BDI is respected as a leading indicator for the stock market. As a measure of shipping costs it is an excellent measure of world trade. The index is over 80% down from its peak last year, but did increase of its lows at the beginning of this year to reach 4300 in June. It has now halved since then as China pulls back on importing.

    Baltic Dry is signalling new pullback in the stock market - City AM
    A champion of the people emerges with the age-old and appealing promise of "something for nothing" - to be financed through every-increasing taxes. Supply and demand are thrown out of gear - the overhead goes up; the effective use of human energy goes down; the standard of living is lowered because money cannot buy wealth that is not produced.

    WEAVER, HENRY GRADY,

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    Its a good one.Great too if you are importing and shipping companies are trying the ould shaft.
    Quote Originally Posted by seenitallb4 View Post
    Unlike most of the financial media, which is a lagging indicator.....
    A champion of the people emerges with the age-old and appealing promise of "something for nothing" - to be financed through every-increasing taxes. Supply and demand are thrown out of gear - the overhead goes up; the effective use of human energy goes down; the standard of living is lowered because money cannot buy wealth that is not produced.

    WEAVER, HENRY GRADY,

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