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View Poll Results: Could Fianna Fáil recover and win the next General Election?

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Thread: Could Fianna Fáil recover and win the next General Election?

  1. #1

    Default Could Fianna Fáil recover and win the next General Election?

    A few months ago, I would have thought it was absolutely beyond the bounds of the imaginable that Fianna Fáil might survive the shock of the economic collapse, bluster its way through a harsh recovery programme, hang on in office until 2012 and recover sufficiently in order to defeat the main Opposition parties in the next General Election.

    Last night's segment on Newsweek (BBC2) in which Obama pollster Cornell Belcher analysed the current state of the main political parties in the UK had me making many comparisons with the current state of play here.

    Unlike in the last U.S. Presidential elections, when Obama voters believed (rightly or wrongly) that they were opting for a clear alternative to Bush's policies, voters in the UK emerged as profoundly unenthusiastic about any of the parties. Many of those who may desert Labour for the Conservatives will do so out of a sense of anger and disillusionment. They are not pro-Conservatives and/or David cameron. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are failing to convince many people that they represent a credible alternative.

    Similarly, many people here feel disgusted with Fianna Fáil, and probably long for a clear alternative. But neither Fine Gael nor Labour is perceived as an attractive option. In the case of Fine Gael, this is more understandable, since there is little of an ideological nature to distinguish it from Fianna Fáil. Given the now almost total irrelevance of Civil War politics, opting to support Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael may be largely a matter of preference for one set of personalities over another, or choosing the least bad option between the two.

    Referring to the UK, Cornell Belcher concluded that
    (a) a clear majority of the electorate is hungry for change, and
    (b) any Party willing and able to respond to that hunger by presenting a radical alternative to 'politics-as-usual' would win massive support.

    I believe the same is true here, and the Labour Party has everything to win or lose. Gilmore even emerges as the post popular Party leader. I certainly hear lots of people lauding Joan Burton's Dáil performances, especially when she attacks the Government full-on.

    But Labour appears to shy away from really going after the big prize, i.e. a Labour (or Labour-led) Government after the next General Election. For example, by joining Fine Gael and other parties in refusing to demand the resignation of John O'Donoghue, Labour immediately confirms a suspicion that, when all is said and done, 'they are all the same'. Labour appears to make radical noises in fits and starts. And that is not good enough.

    In the absence of a really inspiring alternative, I am beginning to think that Fianna Fáil strategists are probably keeping their own troops in order by pointing out (a) the weakness of support for the Opposition, (b) the fickleness and short memory of the electorate, and (c) the fact that, while 2009 may be their darkest hour, there are already glimmers of light on the horizon, indicating that they could well manage to turn things around by 2012.

    I certainly don't believe that Fianna Fáil are remotely ready to concede the next General Election. And for that, Fine Gael and, especially, Labour, are largely to blame.


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    Last edited by Utopian Hermit Monk; 20th September 2009 at 12:15 AM.

  2. #2
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    FF is finished. They are universally despised. Cowen is loathed as a leader. The party is full of spivs an shysters.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member QuizMaster's Avatar
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    It would be unlikely, but not impossible for FF to win the next elelction. Or at least for FG to fluff it. The blueshirts are thier own worst enemies. Watch them miss an open goal in Dunlaoghaire next time out, for example. And I can't see all 3 holding in Dublin South.
    If there is a future, it will be Green.

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    If the government get to Christmas its a new ball game for the new year,Cowen will have the wind on his back.

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    No

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    I would also consider it unlikely but certainly not impossible, provided the Government lasts the full term that is (which is obviously far from sure). However, if it could last till 2012 that's an awful long period of time and who knows what will have happened, look at the changes since 2006 as an example. I think there's about a %10-15 of FF retaining power.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member bormotello's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robert151410 View Post
    FF is finished. They are universally despised. Cowen is loathed as a leader. The party is full of spivs an shysters.
    Opposition is not better
    They afraid to take any action, which will bring them to power

  8. #8
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    They will either go on to be the third largest party or they will match FG in the Next GE.

    If the global economic climate improves, NAMA shows signs of working and the mood of the country is positive with the likes of a World Cup run or some other national event which bonds the country I really see FF doing ok. The electorate may well aproach the polls with a feeling that FF are working, their policies on NAMA and the banks have worked, so why should I vote for people who didn't want it. "Better the Devil you know syndrome". Not saying they are going to get the figures in the last GE, but I do think they will be up with FG.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by robert151410 View Post
    FF is finished. They are universally despised. Cowen is loathed as a leader. The party is full of spivs an shysters.

    I honestly don't believe they are finished, incredible as that may seem.

    But the real problem is the weakness of the Opposition. Neither Enda Kenny nor the Fine Gael front bench inspires much enthusiasm.

    I think the key to Fianna Fail's defeat or victory could well be the Labour Party. If they can shake themselves out of their 'aw sure a few more seats than the last time will be grand' mentality, and really present themselves as a credible alternative Government with clearly new policies, they could really shake things up. But there are no signs that they are interested in taking this path. I already mentioned their unwillingness to demand John O'Donoghue's resignation. Another example is their silence on the need to slash Ministerial, TD and Seanad salaries and expenses. If Labour had the conviction to announce an immediate 40 or 50% cut if they won a majority in the next Dáil, I believe they would see an immediate increase in support.



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  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member flavirostris's Avatar
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    absolutely they could..people would be foolish to write them off until the see them buried at a crossroads with a stake through through their hearts ( with apologies to the cruiser )

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