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Thread: Louth

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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Default Louth

    Series of threads on each constituency:

    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Louth First Preference Votes

    Currently: 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF

    Louth becomes a five seater and the coastal area of Meath is added to it.

    5 seats means firstly that there'll be two for FG. Fergus O'Dowd to retain his seat and MEP Mairead McGuinness will get it easily, helped by her exposure as MEP.

    5 seats also means that Arthur Morgan should get re-elected. The SF vote was up slightly in the locals to 17.4% which is just over the 16.6% quota needed in a 5-seater.

    That leaves two seats spare and I think they'll probably go to Fianna Fáil. The local vote for them was 23.7%. They're short of the 33.3% vote needed for two seats however with Dermot Ahern up there he should bring in the second candidate easily. Remember he's a contender for the party leadership so his vote could even rise.

    I predict: 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 SF

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    And what about the 8,500 votes that Labpur got in the locals in the new Louth constituency. Have you considered the fact that Mareid is from Ardee and that the Meath coastal area is part of greater Drogheda where Labour are strrongest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Libernia View Post
    And what about the 8,500 votes that Labour got in the locals in the new Louth constituency. Have you considered the fact that Mareid is from Ardee and that the Meath coastal area is part of greater Drogheda where Labour are strrongest.
    Ok, yeah I was confused about those boundary changes. I thought the Meath coastal area would remain part of Meath County council?

    RTÉ News: Elections 2009 - Louth County Council

    I was looking at these figures. 7% for the Greens! I would image a strong transfer to FF there along with their own 24% vote = 30% FF. With other transfers that is two seats, unfortunately.

    SF definetly have a seat, they had 17% in the locals and then the other two for FG.

    Labour only had 11% and while that was up by 6%, it's not a seat in my view.

    That's based on those figures anyway.

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    Both FF seats Safe, SF seat safe,I FG seat for definate and between FG and Labour for final seat,possibly labour in my opinion

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    Politics.ie Newbie LIMARE's Avatar
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    Depending on when the election is held I dont think there will be such a thing as a safe second FF seat. On a local election vote of 23% down 6% there is no guarantee or safe seat for FF. I would rather think it more likely to be 2FG,1SF,1FF and FF and Lab in a battle for the last. But as a week is a long time in politics I guess two more years make this predicition fairly redundant.

    PS I dont think we will have to worry about Green tranfers as with the faith of all small parties who coalesce with FF they are in for a ravaging one way or the other.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Avon Barksdale View Post
    If FF are on 25-30% nationally, there is simply no way that their 2 seats in Louth are "safe"
    Given the 2 sitting FF TDs in Louth and allowing for a fall in the FF vote I think its still a fair assessment that FF will gather almost 2 quotas of 1st pref votes and transfers will ensure that both sitting TDs retain their seats.People have to be realistic and admit the FF vote will hold up in some places and this is probably one of those places

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    Quote Originally Posted by pjoz View Post
    Given the 2 sitting FF TDs in Louth and allowing for a fall in the FF vote I think its still a fair assessment that FF will gather almost 2 quotas of 1st pref votes and transfers will ensure that both sitting TDs retain their seats.People have to be realistic and admit the FF vote will hold up in some places and this is probably one of those places
    Agreed. First four seats will be Ahern, 2 FG and SF. The last seat will probably be between Kirk (FF) and Labour, but labour are coming from a long was back - from behind a 3rd FF candidates in 2007 and FF got 2.11 quotas when it was a 4 seaters. They'll only need 9000 votes to make quota this time (down 2,000) and had 23,000+ first preference votes last time. The 2nd FF won't meet quota, but won't be far off.

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    When McGuinness was asked time and again during the Euros would she run for the Dail she said no. I really dont think she could brazenly go back on that, she would be letting a lot of us down that took her at her word.

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    Politics.ie Member adamirer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fgrep View Post
    When McGuinness was asked time and again during the Euros would she run for the Dail she said no. I really dont think she could brazenly go back on that, she would be letting a lot of us down that took her at her word.
    FG will ask her to run, and shye'll do so in the 'national interest'. Its why i never vote for candidates (like Mary Lou mcDonald or Joe Higgins) who are mor einterested in being TDs than MEPS. I think de Burca, McGuinness, JP Phelan, Toireasa Ferris would/will all run in the next GE.

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    FG are by no means certainties to win 2 in Louth. They have not won 2 here since 1954.

    FG will run O' Dowd, who is solid. But Dundalk has 2 electoral areas and there was not a signifcant increase in the FG vote in this SF/FF bastion. They do not have a young, dynamic county counciller here, but rather Terry Brennan and Jim Darcy, two earnest gentlemen, but not exactly going to get the urban yummy mummies wetting their knickers to vote for them.

    Kirk FF at 64, I think will retire. He was unbeaten in every GE he contested, and why destroy that record now? I think Thomas Byrne will move into Louth, run with Ahern and somebody from Mid Louth.

    FG will run O' Dowd, probably Darcy, and somebody from Mid Louth. Can't see two seats though.

    Labour to break through here providing no screw ups.
    SF to hold.

    So 2 FF, 1 Lab, 1FG, 1SF.

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