Series of threads on each constituency:
ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Louth First Preference Votes
Currently: 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 SF
Louth becomes a five seater and the coastal area of Meath is added to it.
5 seats means firstly that there'll be two for FG. Fergus O'Dowd to retain his seat and MEP Mairead McGuinness will get it easily, helped by her exposure as MEP.
5 seats also means that Arthur Morgan should get re-elected. The SF vote was up slightly in the locals to 17.4% which is just over the 16.6% quota needed in a 5-seater.
That leaves two seats spare and I think they'll probably go to Fianna Fáil. The local vote for them was 23.7%. They're short of the 33.3% vote needed for two seats however with Dermot Ahern up there he should bring in the second candidate easily. Remember he's a contender for the party leadership so his vote could even rise.
I predict: 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 SF