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Thread: Longford-Westmeath

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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Default Longford-Westmeath

    Series of threads on each constituency:

    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Longford Westmeath First Preference Votes

    Currently: 2 FF, 1 FG and 1 Labour

    Willie Penrose topped the poll in 07 and there's no reason why he won't do so again.

    FG did very well in the locals getting roughly 37% of the vote when 40% is the quota for two seats.

    FF also did well on 35% roughly but I with the government's rating gone down further since then this vote will drop even more.

    I predict: 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 Labour

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    Surely Mary O Rourke is going out. She is seventy two years old now. I hear she is warming her son up along the sidelines.
    Willie will top the poll and Peter Kelly will get in and two FG or perhaps one Ind.

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    O Rourke will surely be retiring so i would say 2 FG Banna and McFadden, Penrose and prob Kelly

    what are Mae Sextons chances here? would it be possible for two Lab as lab have split the candidates down county lines or is there no chance of too Lab
    Mae will prob have a large enough personal vote that got her elected in 02 but hard to imagine 2 FG 2 Lab no FF?

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    FF had ~35% of the vote in the locals. There's a certain seat there but not 2. Fine Gael are very well positioned for two while Labour has a lot of ground to gain. If you apply a nationwide swing of a doubling of their vote then you have two seats but there won't be a doubling of the vote here. The rise will be seen in urban areas and this constituency should see a solid rise, Sexton will poll well, but Fine Gael will probably beat Labour by a large margin.

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    As I posted in an older thread...

    FF vote in locals in South Westmeath was surprisingly very strong. No sign of an up and coming candidate to electrify the FG ticket. FG need to find a North Westmeath candidate - although Bonkers Bannon might want a bit of a patsy there. Young Burke scrubbed up well the last time and might do better this time. FG need to persuade Mark Cooney in Athlone to smarten up and finally rise to the mantle of old Paddy. There are still enough Longford voters who remember General Sean and the family connection to bolster his Westmeath votes. If they run a Bannon \ Burke \ McFadden ticket like 2007, they will only get 1 seat.

    In FFs case, there will be a new candidate in North Westmeath (Troy perhaps) and in South Westmeath it will be a straight fight between Boxer Moran and Aengus O'Rourke. However Mary O'Rourke - 73 now - will, one suspects, be leaned on by hq to do one last last hurrah. Moran not well known enough outside the town of Athlone and O'Rourke junior hasn't enough political miles on the clock yet.

    Mae Sexton has had more political incarnations than I can remember but dont see her as the power house to win a second seat for labour. Their problem is that the vote is largely concentrated in North Westmeath.

    If O'Rourke senior runs and - as she has done twice before - stays well ahead of Mcfadden in South Westmeath, then FF's effective vote goes up and against all possibilities, a "no change" could be likely. FG need a strong Longford candidate to take on Peter Kelly and a strong North Westmeath candidate to hold down the FF candidate there. No sign of them emerging to date.

    Long way to go yet though.....

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    Correct me if im wrong but the labour vote in longford county in 2009 was in the region of 300 votes and sexton got elected as an independent on around 600. So it is hardly a basis to secure a second seat. I think 2 FG would be more likely it would take more than a labour surge to improve on those figures

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crannog View Post
    Correct me if im wrong but the labour vote in longford county in 2009 was in the region of 300 votes and sexton got elected as an independent on around 600. So it is hardly a basis to secure a second seat. I think 2 FG would be more likely it would take more than a labour surge to improve on those figures
    I agree and if FG go with the same ticket as 07, that is also questionable. Wonder what odds one would get on no personnel changes in the constituency. Might be worth a fluter at long odds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by athlonedub View Post
    As I posted in an older thread...

    FF vote in locals in South Westmeath was surprisingly very strong. No sign of an up and coming candidate to electrify the FG ticket. FG need to find a North Westmeath candidate - although Bonkers Bannon might want a bit of a patsy there. Young Burke scrubbed up well the last time and might do better this time. FG need to persuade Mark Cooney in Athlone to smarten up and finally rise to the mantle of old Paddy. There are still enough Longford voters who remember General Sean and the family connection to bolster his Westmeath votes. If they run a Bannon \ Burke \ McFadden ticket like 2007, they will only get 1 seat.

    In FFs case, there will be a new candidate in North Westmeath (Troy perhaps) and in South Westmeath it will be a straight fight between Boxer Moran and Aengus O'Rourke. However Mary O'Rourke - 73 now - will, one suspects, be leaned on by hq to do one last last hurrah. Moran not well known enough outside the town of Athlone and O'Rourke junior hasn't enough political miles on the clock yet.

    Mae Sexton has had more political incarnations than I can remember but dont see her as the power house to win a second seat for labour. Their problem is that the vote is largely concentrated in North Westmeath.

    If O'Rourke senior runs and - as she has done twice before - stays well ahead of Mcfadden in South Westmeath, then FF's effective vote goes up and against all possibilities, a "no change" could be likely. FG need a strong Longford candidate to take on Peter Kelly and a strong North Westmeath candidate to hold down the FF candidate there. No sign of them emerging to date.

    Long way to go yet though.....

    Any clearer on who will be the FF athlone candidate?
    Do you still think Bannon/Burke/McFadden will only return 1 seat?

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    Quote Originally Posted by LgCastell View Post
    O Rourke will surely be retiring so i would say 2 FG Banna and McFadden, Penrose and prob Kelly

    what are Mae Sextons chances here? would it be possible for two Lab as lab have split the candidates down county lines or is there no chance of too Lab
    Mae will prob have a large enough personal vote that got her elected in 02 but hard to imagine 2 FG 2 Lab no FF?
    Mae Sexton was a PD, how could anyone vote for these hags

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulp View Post
    Any clearer on who will be the FF athlone candidate?
    Do you still think Bannon/Burke/McFadden will only return 1 seat?
    Doesn't appear to be any clearer as to Athlone FF candidate. Story on the ground seems to be that FFHQ want O'Rourke to run one last time to try and hold the seat. Not sure Boxer Moran will be happy with that and could go independent.That decision will go a long way to determining where last seat goes between FG (McFadden) Labour and FF

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