Michigan problems too - this time with the optical-scanners needed to count paper-ballots in Oakland county:

BTW, 8 counties in Michigan, containing 3.93 million people (out of 7.47 million), are using this kind of ES+S machine. Furthermore, 48 million registered voters live in areas using ES+S Optical scanners.

And now 7 hour waits to vote in parts of Georgia and Florida:

One poll - the only one to say this - has Obama leading only 50-48. Note how accurate their projections were in 1992/6/00/04.

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Now, now, now. You've quoted that pretty selectively!

The Battleground poll has two scenarios. One scenario (the Tarrance Projection) gives Obama 50.2% with McCain on 48.3%.

The other (the Lakes Projection) gives Obama 51.5% and McCain 46.5%.

The Tarrance Projection is from Republican Ed Goeas at the Tarrance Group and the Lakes Projections is from Democrat Celinda Lake at Lake Partners.

Polls from Sunday and Monday from fivethirtyeight.com:



Their final prediction for the distribution of Electoral College votes and the popular vote is as follows:

So much for 'Coalgate'.

Which presidential polls were most accurate?

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.

Here is the list --

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)


Texas on the Potomac: The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

Missouri should finally (!) report on Tuesday.

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Missouri finally called for McCain. Only the second time since 1904 it voted for the loser, and the first time ever that a Democrat has won without it. Underlines that this is not a conventional election, and that those who got it wrong can be forgiven because of the imponderables brought about by the Obama candidacy, including ethnic-minority turnout, youth vote, historical-patterns etc.

Bringing the final Electoral Map to:
Obama 365 (incl 1 of Nebraska's 5 EVs)
McCain 173

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Unfortunately for you the "unconventionality" of the election was quite apparent before voting started. You knew about the large democratic registration drive, you knew how Obama had stirred the youth vote, you knew that Obama had a large ground game, you knew that Obama would win the black vote by 90%+...even if you didn't know all that, the state polls for weeks before the election said Obama would win in the region of 350-375 EV and the national polls indicated a significant lead for Obama.

That being said I enjoyed your analysis. You (and McCain) were unlucky that the economy became such a major issue when it did and it would definitely have been a lot closer if that had not happened. That being said, I still think Obama would have won it.

You couldn't have known when you made your bets that McCain would make such an awful pick for VP and would react so rashly and wrongly to the economic situation. He also gave the game away at and after the 1st debate somewhat. Obama (rightly) sensed that the American people would like to see someone who could agree with their political opponents some of the time and made a point of agreeing with McCain many times during the debate, and McCain played right into his hands by mocking that agreement in an advertisement after the debate.

Finally though, I would like to say thank you FT for keeping this thread up to date all of the time. That required some effort and I appreciate it as you often posted information which I may not have seen otherwise.

There might be a general election next year in this country and we are surely going to have a Lisbon 2. I wouldn't bet against you getting some of that cash back then.

There won't be an election because that would require the Taoiseach to have a majority in Dail Eireann and then to get the President to agree. The Greens deffo will not want one and will pull out rather than allow it - but FF won't want it either for reasons that are obvious. FG will want one but the Greens will make crossing the floor and setting up a 1994-style Rainbow conditional on one not being called. Remember the president is not bound to agree unless An Taoiseach has the support of such a majority. Agree on Lisbon 2 though.

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