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Obama v McCain Polling

This is a discussion on Obama v McCain Polling within the US Politics forums, part of the General Discussion category on Politics.ie. Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster Isn't the internet a wonderful thing: Forecast Earth from The Weather Channel Thought ...

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  #1361 (permalink)  
Old 3rd November 2008
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Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster View Post
Isn't the internet a wonderful thing:

Forecast Earth from The Weather Channel

Thought I'd be all day finding forecasts for the key states. Anyway, but for possible showers in Philadelphia, its looking good for turnout.....
Someone just send me a message that said voting goes down 2.5% among Democrats when it rains, according to CNN. What babies. It's supposed to rain tomorrow in the metro DC area, bad for Virginia.
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  #1362 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by East Coast Elitist View Post
Someone just send me a message that said voting goes down 2.5% among Democrats when it rains, according to CNN. What babies. It's supposed to rain tomorrow in the metro DC area, bad for Virginia.
I'm in the DC weather band and our forecast [accuweather] says overcast on Tuesday with possibly some light rain in the late afternoon. Don't see it really being a problem.
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Old 3rd November 2008
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Obama by 7.1% in new Zogby poll
Zogby International
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  #1364 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by westair View Post
I'm in the DC weather band and our forecast [accuweather] says overcast on Tuesday with possibly some light rain in the late afternoon. Don't see it really being a problem.
I'm in the DC weather band too. And it's highly possible I'm overthinking this thing. The nerves have set in
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Old 3rd November 2008
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I'm honestly at this stage glad it will soon be over.

To be frank though - I can't wait to see a comprehensive list compiled by someone with time to waste on FT's catalogue of predictions. Throughout the Primary campaign and into the general - we have seen time after time FT hang his coat on the nail of some other Controversy, only a few of which I can remember.

First there was Rev. Wright - which meant that noone would vote for Obama. They did.
Then there was Bill Ayers - Likewise, and again, it didn't work.
Then there was the Michelle factor. Then there was the Whitey Tape. Then Bittergate. Then something about Obama not actually being American. Then a Picture of Obama in traditional robes. Then we were told that Obama could never win California as he had lost it in the primaries. Then ACORN, then Palin was literally going to take every white woman voter from Obama. Then McCain blew him away in all three debates. Then the GoP fraud kicked in, the polls tightened and some hitherto unseen GoP GOTV campaign kicked in.

After all that lot, it is amazing that Obama is even in this race at this stage. Instead, FT is pinning his hopes for his 500 quid from Paddy the Plasterer on a last ditch smear by Faux News. One day remains before the Vote and *now* is seemingly a good day to unload this massive faultline in Obama's campaign? If the attack had validity, it would have been used months ago. If the McCain campaign has an ounce of confidence, it would have been.

Instead the final polls from some of the main groups are as follows:
Battlegound O:50 - M:44
Rasmussen O:52 M:45
Gallup O:55 M:44
R2000 O:51 M:45
(sorry - I don;t have linkies to the last three)
Zogby's final poll will be along later in the day, but his last one was O:51 M:44

[hr]
Two more last last trackers -
Marist O:53 M:44
Diageo/Hotline O:50 M:45
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Last edited by khavakoz; 3rd November 2008 at 05:29 PM. Reason: two more trakcers
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Originally Posted by westair View Post
Actually did no polling in the final two weeks - and in addition, they did their polling exclusively by telephone. Most working class Americans did not own telephones in 1948 so Gallup's "representative pool" of voters did not accurately reflect the entire electorate.

These are the reasons why a comparison with 1948 and any present day polls is not fully justified.
Won't stop FutureTaoiseach clinging on to it, though.
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Old 3rd November 2008
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Originally Posted by East Coast Elitist View Post
Coal controversy? Ha. If McCain/Palin were going to pull another lie out of their ass to smear Obama, they needed to do it weeks ago for it to have even a chance at working.

Lies, Half Truths and Contradictions: Chronicle ''Hidden'' Audio on Obama

It's not true.

But the Drudge Report, the Republican National Committee and apparently even GOP VP candidate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin fell for completely fabricated news from a shady website called Newsbusters today suggesting the San Francisco Chronicle has ''hidden'' audio with Sen. Barack Obama regarding his statements on coal.
SFGate: Politics Blog : Lies, Half Truths and Contradictions: Chronicle ''Hidden'' Audio on Obama
Actually Fox has played the audio on Obama and coal this morning. I heard it.
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Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach View Post
Actually Fox has played the audio on Obama and coal this morning. I heard it.
You have to hand it to Fox. Only they can run an opinion poll(WSJ) giving Obama an 8% lead the night before an election with the headline "It's Narrowing" !
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Originally Posted by East Coast Elitist View Post
I'm in the DC weather band too. And it's highly possible I'm overthinking this thing. The nerves have set in
Everyone's nerves are frayed at this point - just listening to the contradicting comments of the pundits is amazing. Be so glad when it is all over...with the right result.
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Old 4th November 2008
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Originally Posted by westair View Post
Everyone's nerves are frayed at this point - just listening to the contradicting comments of the pundits is amazing. Be so glad when it is all over...with the right result.
This sort of right result?

Quote:
With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.

The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.

Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.

Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.


It's going to take either a miracle or widespread and large-scale fraud for McCain to win. Let's hope he doesn't pull a Lewis Hamilton.
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Palin Goes After Obama on Coal Comments FOX Embeds FOXNews.com This thread Refback 3rd November 2008 07:38 PM

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