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Obama v McCain Polling

This is a discussion on Obama v McCain Polling within the US Politics forums, part of the General Discussion category on Politics.ie. Therapists in the US are dealing with a new anxiety among their patients- dread over the reliability of the opinion ...

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Old 2nd November 2008
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Therapists in the US are dealing with a new anxiety among their patients- dread over the reliability of the opinion polls.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/01/us...em&oref=slogin

A young woman, Shana Rosen, walks by. She is from Denver and said she had told her boyfriend that their love life was on hold while she sweated out Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado. Ask Lucy Slurzberg, an Upper West Side psychotherapist, how many of her liberal patients speak of their electoral fears during their sessions, and she answers: “Oh, only about 90 percent of them.”
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Old 2nd November 2008
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Therapists in the US are dealing with a new anxiety among their patients- dread over the reliability of the opinion polls.
Tell me about it!

I prefer to use tried and tested Irish methods to get over it though.
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Old 3rd November 2008
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Today's polls:



Another Obama campaign gaffe. This time he talks about bankrupting the coal-industry:

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MARIETTA, OH –-Sarah Palin unleashed a new attack today after an audio file of an interview Barack Obama did in January 2008 was reported on conservative blogs and linked on the Drudge Report. Palin accused the Democratic nominee of wanting to bankrupt the coal industry.
“Barack Obama explained his plan to the San Francisco Chronicle this year, early this year. And he said that, sure, if the industry wants to build coal fired power plants, then they can go ahead and try, he says, but they can do it only in a way that will bankrupt the coal industry, and he’s comfortable letting that happen. And you gotta listen to the tape.
The audio file has been on the San Francisco Chronicle’s website since the January interview with its editorial board, but Palin accused the newspaper of withholding the information until right before the election.
“Now a couple points on this: One is that here again, why is the audio tape just now surfacing? This interview was given to San Francisco folks many, many months ago. You should have known about this, so that you would have better decision-making information as you go into the voting booth,” Palin said as shouts of “liberal media!” could be heard from the crowd.
In the interview Obama spoke about his energy plan which includes an “aggressive” cap and trade policy which will charge polluters in an effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions. John McCain is also a supporter of cap and trade.
“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.” Obama said, “That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in wind, solar, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches. The only thing that I have said with respect to coal, I haven’t been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as a ideological matter as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.”

Palin promised the crowd at Marietta College that her ticket will “not let that happen to the coal industry.”
“Instead, we’ll make clean coal a reality and to help power the American economy with clean coal technology, we’re going to be looking to the hard-working people of Ohio and West Virginia and Pennsylvania.”
The Obama points out that later in the interview the Illinois senator says that eliminating coal is “ an illusion.” Ohio Governor Ted Strickland responded to Palin’s comments.
“After John McCain said he’d like to ‘transition away from coal entirely,’ his campaign is hardly in a position to criticize a coal state Senator like Barack Obama who has outlined a $150 billion investment in clean coal and other technologies to create jobs and build a new energy economy. The truth is, John McCain and Sarah Palin can’t name a single thing they’d do differently on the economy than George Bush, so all they have to offer is last minute, desperate distortions. Hardworking families don’t need more Washington-style political attacks, they need a President who will create jobs and stand up for the middle class – and that’s Barack Obama.”
Coal accounts for around 174,000 jobs in the US, especially in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Montana and Virginia. But remember, they have families and spouses aswell, and in knife-edge states this might be a gamechanger. Was this the moment Obama lost the election?

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Thus, we can estimate that the coal industry directly provides an approximate total of 174,000 blue-collar, full-time, permanent jobs in the U.S. - including mining, transportation, and power plant employment. The U.S. civilian labor force totaled 141,730,000 workers in 2005; thus, permanent blue-collar coal industry employees represent 0.12% of the U.S. workforce.[10] (Compare this percentage with the 1.89% of U.S. workers who worked in coal mining alone in 1920.)
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Old 3rd November 2008
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I'm revising my prediction. I am going to call for McCain to win by 281 to 257 carrying PA and VA, losing Nevada. The GOP attacks on the Extreme left wing politics of the Democrats like Barney Frank who would basically destroy the economy of Virginia by destroying defense spending.

Please let McCain win.
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Old 3rd November 2008
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Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach View Post
Today's polls:



Another Obama campaign gaffe. This time he talks about bankrupting the coal-industry:



Coal accounts for around 174,000 jobs in the US, especially in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Montana and Virginia. But remember, they have families and spouses aswell, and in knife-edge states this might be a gamechanger. Was this the moment Obama lost the election?

You are becoming increasingly desperate mate....
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Old 3rd November 2008
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You are becoming increasingly desperate mate....
Fox are all over this and they nearly destroyed Obama's campaign last March over Rev Wright. They have 54% of the primetime cable audience. So don't underestimate how much damage this could do. A lot of non-coal workers in coal-states who don't work in the coal-industry will be concerned about the future of their state economies under an Obama/Democratic admin. That's one of the reason West Virginia went Republican for president since 2000. In close states this could be enough to swing them to McCain.

Mark my words, on Wednesday morning the US will wake up to a McCain victory. I am increasingly certain. Paddypower.com will soon reward my intuition with a €500 payout, methinks.
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Fox are all over this and they nearly destroyed Obama's campaign last March over Rev Wright. They have 54% of the primetime cable audience. So don't underestimate how much damage this could do. A lot of non-coal workers in coal-states who don't work in the coal-industry will be concerned about the future of their state economies under an Obama/Democratic admin. That's one of the reason West Virginia went Republican for president since 2000. In close states this could be enough to swing them to McCain.

Mark my words, on Wednesday morning the US will wake up to a McCain victory. I am increasingly certain. Paddypower.com will soon reward my intuition with a €500 payout, methinks.
How can you be "increasingly certain" if you were certain in the first place? Have you revised your opinion with regard to the Republicans stealing the election? Are they now going to win it fair and square?
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Have you revised your opinion with regard to the Republicans stealing the election? Are they now going to win it fair and square?
I think a mixture of both, depending on the state.
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I think a mixture of both, depending on the state.
And if you're spectacularly wrong will you admit it? Will you try and weasel your way out of doing so? Or will you just take two weeks off?
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And if you're spectacularly wrong will you admit it? Will you try and weasel your way out doing so? Or will you just take two weeks off?
If I'm wrong I will admit it. But I won't be. If you're wrong will you apologise for ridiculing my predictions?
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